NBA Betting Picks for Tuesday 2/27/24: Will the Knicks Clip the Pelicans?

Riley Thomas•_riley8

5mo

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers

Under 233.5 (-110)

The Dallas Mavericks have the 11th-best offensive rating while totaling the 7th-most points per game (PPG) in the league (118.6), yet the under is 8-2 over Dallas' previous 10 games. With the Cleveland Cavaliers touting the second-best defensive rating while allowing the second-fewest PPG (109.2), this one could be poised for a low-scoring game.

According to numberFire's daily game projections, the under looks like the best bet. I agree with this side due to the Cavaliers' defense and ability to control the pace of play. The Mavericks lean on jump shots as they total the third-fewest points in the paint while shooting the second-most three-pointers.

Anchored by Evan Mobley (111.1 defensive rating) and Jarrett Allen (111.1 defensive rating), Cleveland gives up the third-fewest points in the paint while holding the third-best mark in opponent two-point percentage. The Cavs certainly possess the interior defense to limit Dallas' ability to attack the rim once again.

The perimeter defense isn't too shabby either with opponents totaling the eighth-fewest three-point makes and attempts against the Cavaliers. Plus, Cleveland held the Washington Wizards to 12 of 40 (30.0%) from three in their last game. The Cavs have also given up only 30.6 three-point attempts over the last five games -- even lower than their season average of 33.6.

Cleveland has defense emphatically checked, and they could be poised to dominate the boards, too. The Mavs have the 5th-worst defensive rebounding percentage and 8th-worst offensive rebounding percentage while the Cavaliers have the 3rd-best defensive rebounding percentage and 17th-best offensive rebounding percentage. Cleveland has the 10th-slowest tempo in the league, and if they can control the boards, the Cavs can make this another low-scoring, slow-paced contest.

The Cavaliers are averaging only 107.0 PPG over their last four contests. For the under to hit, this could mostly be about Cleveland slowing Dallas' offense.

New Orleans Pelicans at New York Knicks

Knicks Moneyline (+130)

Following an 8-1 stretch, the New Orleans Pelicans have cooled off with back-to-back losses. On Tuesday, they visit the New York Knicks, who are 4-6 over their last 10 games while going 2-8 against the spread (ATS). Choosing a side in this one could be tough when considering each team's recent stretch.

Backing the home underdog seems like the wise choice. While the Knicks are 1-3 over their last four home games, I have more trust in the large sample size of the entire season. New York holds a 20-9 record in Madison Square Garden. The Knicks at +130 to win outright in a home game is a rare sight that I cannot pass on.

Do the stats back up the pick, though? The short answer is yes. The Pelicans' perimeter defense has been a troubling concern this season, for they allow the second-most three-point shots per game. New York boasts the sixth-best offensive rating and knows how to shoot the three-ball with the 13th-most makes and shots per game.

The Knicks are shooting 38.6% from deep over their past four games, which is a notable increase compared to their season mark of 36.9% (13th-best). Donte DiVincenzo is one sharpshooter to keep an eye on as he has shot 9 of 18 (50.0%) from three over his last two games.

New Orleans also looks to live around the rim with the 11th-most points in the paint compared to the 8th-fewest three-point shots per game. New York features a solid defense that defends the painted area well by giving up the 10th-fewest points in the paint.

Even with recent struggles, the Knicks could be poised for a win thanks to a favorable matchup against the Pelicans. New York can let it fly from three and have the ability to slow New Orleans' paint attack.

Charlotte Hornets at Milwaukee Bucks

Over 220.5 (-110)

Similar to the Mavericks, the Milwaukee Bucks are another high-scoring team (second-most PPG) where the under has suddenly thrived. In fact, the under is 8-1-1 over the Bucks' last 10 games. With a low total of 220.5 while taking on the Charlotte Hornets -- who has the fourth-worst defensive rating -- the over could finally hit for Milwaukee.

numberFire is giving a strong confidence level for this pick with five out of five stars. It's backed with good reason. Before we dig into the support for the over, we can't ignore that the Hornets' defense has clearly improved over the last six games. During the stretch, Charlotte has allowed only 98.5 PPG compared to their season average of 118.1 PPG (eighth-worst).

However, I'm simply not buying that this is sustainable for the Hornets' defense. The starting lineup is still full of weak defenders, including Brandon Miller (120.2 defensive rating), Miles Bridges (121.5 defensive rating), and Nick Richards (121.6 defensive rating). It's highly unlikely that these defenders magically flip it around for the long haul.

The Bucks certainly have the ability to expose this weakness with Damian Lillard (121.2 offensive rating) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (121.9 offensive rating) leading the offense. Milwaukee also likes to shoot the three with seventh-most shots per game, and Charlotte has given up 37.8 three-point attempts per game over their last four contests. This is on par with the Bucks' season average of 37.9 attempts per game. After Milwaukee made 18 of 37 (48.6%) three-point attempts in their last game, the Hornets' defense could be in trouble.

Charlotte's offense could also do enough for the over to hit as the Bucks have the 14th-worst defensive rating while allowing the 3rd-most field goal attempts per game. The Hornets have boosted their field goal percentage (FG%) over their previous six games at 48.0% compared to 45.9% on the season (fourth-worst). With Milwaukee giving up shot attempts in bulk, Charlotte's recent increase in efficiency could lead to a solid scoring outing.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.