NBA Betting Picks for Tuesday 11/28/23: Will the Rockets Lift Off in Texas-Sized Rivalry?

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers

Under 238.5 (-110)

The Atlanta Hawks against the Cleveland Cavaliers features the highest total of the night at 238.5. This is mostly due to Atlanta's offense, which ranks third in rating. Plus, the Hawks eclipsed 135 points in three of their last four games.

Cleveland's defense has remained up and down and ranks 14th in rating (1st last season). Over their last four games, the Cavs allowed 117.8 points per game (PPG). Despite the recent struggles, the defense could fare well against Atlanta.

The Hawks are a high-volume three-point shooting team with 37.2 attempts per game (10th-most). Cleveland still features a solid perimeter defense with opponents averaging 33.3 three-point attempts per game (eighth-fewest). Donovan Mitchell also touts the best defensive rating (110.3) among the Cavaliers' starters. He could help limit Trae Young (26.5 PPG) or Dejounte Murray (20.0 PPG).

Cleveland also has the seventh-worst offensive rating in the league, which further aids the under.

The pace of tonight's game could have the biggest impact on the total. Atlanta plays at the third-quickest pace while the Cavs are among the top half of the league in the slowest tempos. Gaining extra possessions could help Cleveland dictate the pace of play. They hold the ninth-best mark in defensive rebounds per game, and the Hawks have the fourth-worst defensive rebounding percentage.

This is only the second Cavaliers game of the season with a total of at least 230. This is not a team that gets into shootouts often. I'm going with my gut on this pick; a total of 238.5 simply feels too high for any game involving Cleveland. Give me the under. The Cavs could slow this game down by winning the rebounding battle.

Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat

Over 226.5 (-112)

Now, let's go to the opposite end of the spectrum. The Milwaukee Bucks have been a scoring machine, averaging 120.4 PPG (fourth-best). In their last 10 games, 8 totals were over 230 points and 3 of the last 4 were at least 245 points.

This has not been strictly due to the Bucks' dangerous offense either. The defense is allowing 117.5 PPG (9th-worst) and ranks 20th in defensive rating. After finishing with the fourth-best defensive rating in 2022-23, Milwaukee has completely changed its identity. The Bucks will face a defensive-minded team tonight against the Miami Heat. Still, the 226.5 total feels low. I like the over; let's dive into the support for the pick.

Miami could be without two of their top three scorers in Tyler Herro (22.9 PPG) and Jimmy Butler (20.7 PPG). Herro could be absent for another week with an ankle injury, and Butler is questionable and in danger of missing his second consecutive contest with his ankle sprain.

The Heat have averaged only 97.5 PPG over their last two games. Poor three-point shooting was a clear problem as they converted only 21 of 71 attempts (29.6%) during the two-game span. Milwaukee has a susceptible perimeter defense that could help Miami get back on track.

The Bucks give up the 12th-most three-point shots per game (36.4), and their starting backcourt of Damian Lillard (115.1) and Malik Beasley (115.9) have underwhelming defensive ratings. Khris Middleton has the best defensive rating among starters (109.8), but he is questionable with an Achilles setback. The defense could be even worse if Andre Jackson Jr. (117.5 defensive rating) gets another start.

On the other side of the court, Milwaukee attempts 37.5 three-pointers per game (9th-most), and Miami gives up 35.5 three-point attempts per game (14th-most). The Heat's opponents are also cashing in 38.1% of three-point looks (fifth-worst). This could simply be a product of bad luck, or perhaps Miami is giving up a boatload of wide-open threes. Either way, Lillard and Beasley, who both average over 2.5 three-point attempts per game, are licking their chops.

With the Bucks' poor defense and the Heat's underwhelming perimeter defense, this game could be poised for the over. Three-point shooting could reign supreme.

Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks

Rockets +4.5 (-110)

The Western Conference features an Texas-sized rivalry between the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks. These could be two playoff teams as FanDuel's NBA playoff odds have Houston at +205 and Dallas at -300 to earn postseason berths.

However, both teams are currently on cold streaks. The Rockets are 2-3 over their last five games, and the Mavericks are 1-3 in their previous four contests. Houston has been much better against the spread (ATS) with five consecutive covers during the five-game span. Meanwhile, Dallas is 1-3 ATS over their last four games.

The Rockets hold one of the Association's best ATS records at 10-3. As they say, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Houston continues to come up with covers. I'm going to lean on the Rockets yet again.

Houston's defense against Dallas' offense will draw most of the attention. The Rockets have the league's best defensive rating while the Mavs have the fourth-best offensive rating. Of course, Luka Doncic (30.5 PPG; 117.1 offensive rating) and Kyrie Irving (24.4 PPG; 121.3 offensive rating) have been one of the league's most dangerous backcourts. Houston's Fred VanVleet (105.0 rating) and Dillon Brooks (105.3 rating) have impressive defensive ratings that could help slow Doncic and Irving, though.

The Mavericks also attempt the most three-pointers per game, and the Rockets give up the fifth-fewest converted threes per game. This is strength against strength across nearly every front. Houston may have enough defense to keep it close.

The other side of the court is where the Rockets could lift off. Dallas has the sixth-worst defensive rating. Their paint defense has especially been a problem with the third-worst mark in points in the paint allowed per game and fourth-worst mark in two-point percentage. The Mavs' Dereck Lively is questionable with a back injury, and he has one of the team's best defensive ratings at 114.8.

This could be an Alperen Sengun game for Houston. Sengun has a team-best 116.0 offensive rating and shoots 61.1% within 14 feet of the basket. The over for Sengun's projected 20.5-point total feels like a good pick -- especially after he averaged 22.1 PPG over his last seven games.

Houston could stay hot ATS thanks to excellent backcourt defense and an advantage in points in the paint.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.