NBA Betting Picks for Tuesday 11/14/23: Will the Heat Swat the Hornets?

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets

Heat -4.5 (-108)

The Miami Heat are one of the hottest teams in the NBA with a five-game winning streak, which is the second-best mark in the Eastern Conference behind the Philadelphia 76ers, who have won eight straight. Following a five-game losing streak against the spread (ATS), Miami has also become a favorable point-spread pick, as they have covered three consecutive games.

Tuesday's action features a favorable line with the Heat tabbed as 4.5-point favorites against the Charlotte Hornets. As most expected, Charlotte's struggles have continued with a 3-6 record while sitting in 13th place in the East.

Injuries may cause some hesitation in backing Miami, though. Tyler Herro, who ranks second on the team with 22.9 points per game (PPG), is expected to miss his third consecutive game with an ankle sprain. The fifth-year guard also leads the team in usage rate (29.1%). To make matters worse, Caleb Martin -- the vital reserve guard -- will miss his ninth consecutive game with a knee injury.

This has left the Heat's backcourt thin, but fortunately, players have stepped up to replace Herro's and Martin's production. For example, Kyle Lowry's usage rate has spiked by 5.1% when Herro and Martin are off of the court. The veteran guard, who is averaging 8.0 PPG, totaled 17 points in back-to-back games. Lowry is expected to play tonight after missing the previous game for rest. Will his hot streak continue?

Bam Adebayo has also increased his production in Herro's absence. He's currently averaging a career-high 23.2 PPG and 10.4 rebounds per game (RPG). The two-time All-Star has posted 26.7 PPG and 13.0 RPG over his previous three games.

Dru Smith and Jaime Jaquez Jr. are two reserves who have also risen to the occasion. Smith is averaging 10.5 PPG with a 47.1 field goal percentage (FG%) in his last two games, and Jaquez holds a +12 plus/minus over his previous two outings while averaging 15.5 PPG.

In short, even with one of their top scorers out, Miami has enough to keep winning. I don't expect that to change against the Hornets. Charlotte ranks last in defensive rating, which plays right into the Heat's hands. The offense has hit its stride over the last two games, averaging 117.5 PPG.

The Hornets will also be without Terry Rozier, who leads the team with 22.0 PPG. Charlotte is 1-3 without Rozier in the lineup.

Miami is in a great position to add to their five-game winning streak while covering their fourth straight contest.

San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder

Over 237 (-110)

Betting on the over has been a cash cow for two teams -- the San Antonio Spurs and Indiana Pacers. Both teams have gone over in 9 of their 10 games. Indiana has done so thanks to the top offensive rating in the league, and San Antonio has consistently battled in high-scoring games with the NBA's second-worst defensive rating.

The Spurs could be in store for the over yet again. They face the Oklahoma City Thunder on a nationally televised game on TNT. Victor Wembanyama against Chet Holmgren will likely take most of the headlines, as they are the betting favorites for Rookie of the Year. According to FanDuel's NBA award odds, Wembanyama has pulled ahead as the favorite (-360) while Holmgren has the second-shortest odds (+400).

Both rookies could showcase their unicorn-like skill sets in tonight's clash. San Antonio and OKC both like to run in the open court, ranking among the top eight quickest paces.

The Thunder average the 8th-most points in the paint per game, and the Spurs rank 20th in points in the paint allowed per game and 25th in opponent two-point percentage. San Antonio's struggling defense -- which has surrendered 126.2 PPG over the last six games -- could be shredded yet again.

It almost feels like a given that the Spurs will give up plenty of points. San Antonio's success on offense could ultimately determine if this game goes over.

The Spurs have several capable three-point shooters, including Devin Vassell (42.9%), Doug McDermott (52.4%), and Cedi Osman (45.5%). San Antonio shoots 35.4 three-pointers per game (13th), and OKC allows 37.1 three-point attempts per game (22nd). The Spurs should get looks from deep.

Additionally, San Antonio has found some success in the paint, averaging the 14th-most points in the paint per game. The Thunder's interior defense has not been a strength, allowing 50.2 points in the paint per game (17th).

I plan on riding the over for any Spurs game until the wheels fall off. It continues to produce results; why stray from it? Oklahoma City's defense has some weaknesses, which should allow San Antonio to find success on offense. Plus, the Spurs' defense could struggle to contain the eighth-best team in offensive rating.

The Spurs-Thunder game will be on TNT, meaning you can take advantage of FanDuel's No Sweat Same Game Parlay for NBA games on TNT.

Orlando Magic at Brooklyn Nets

Magic Moneyline (+132)

Per usual, I had to find an intriguing underdog to back. The Orlando Magic seem like a favorable pick against the Brooklyn Nets -- especially when considering the Nets' injuries.

Brooklyn will be without Cameron Thomas (ankle) and Ben Simmons (hip). Thomas leads the team with 26.9 PPG and a 31.9% usage rate. Virtually the entire NBA world has ragged on Simmons for years. Sure, he has not been near the player most expected when he came out of the NBA Draft, but Simmons has a clear value on the Nets with a team-best 10.8 RPG and 6.7 assists per game (APG).

In addition, Lonnie Walker, who has been perhaps the biggest surprise of the team, is questionable due to a knee injury. Walker is on pace for a career-high scoring average of 15.4 PPG, and he ranks second on the team with a 25.9% usage rate. Brooklyn could potentially be without their two most used players.

Side note -- who expected Thomas and Walker to have higher usage rates than Mikal Bridges? This should surely change as the season progresses.

While Bridges is certainly capable of increasing his production, it may not be enough against one of the NBA's best defenses. Orlando has the second-best mark in defensive rating, allows only 106.1 PPG (sixth), and has held opponents to only 83.6 attempted field goals per game (second).

The Nets are one of the most high-volume three-point shooting teams, totaling 40.8 shots per game (fourth). The Magic have the perimeter defense to slow the barrage, though; they rank seventh with opponents averaging 32.8 attempted three-pointers per game.

Orlando's offense could also be in store for a solid game, as they rank ninth in points in the paint per game. Meanwhile, Brooklyn is 18th in opponent two-point percentage. This could also mean big outings for Paolo Banchero (18.9 PPG) and Franz Wagner (18.6 PPG). Banchero is shooting 52.0% on two-point attempts within 19 feet of the basket, and Wagner holds a 45.9 FG% within the same distance.

The Magic are a favorable underdog pick for several reasons, including Brooklyn's injuries and Banchero and Wagner's potential advantages on two-point attempts.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.