NBA Betting Picks for Thursday 2/15/24: Backing the Over Ahead of the All-Star Break

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Milwaukee Bucks at Memphis Grizzlies

Grizzlies +11.5 (-108) Over 223 (-110)

The final NBA slate before the All-Star break is here. Thursday provides a shortened slate with only three games, but there are still several intriguing lines available. Let's start with the Milwaukee Bucks against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Even with the Grizzlies 1-9 over their last 10 games, they could be an enticing pick to cover the spread. Memphis comes off back-to-back covers, and Milwaukee is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) over their previous five road contests. With the 10th-best defensive rating, the Grizzlies still have a solid defense that can slow the Bucks, who have the 5th-best offensive rating.

Memphis also faces Milwaukee at an ideal time as their offense has been in a cold spell at only 108.0 points per game (PPG) over their last six games. For comparison, the Bucks have been one of the league's highest-scoring teams with 122.2 PPG (second-most). Milwaukee has struggled around the rim with only 40.5 points in the paint per game compared to their season average of 48.8 (ninth-fewest). I don't expect the Bucks to flip the script tonight with Memphis giving up the 11th-fewest points in the paint while holding the 8th-best mark in opponent two-point percentage.

With Milwaukee's slide on offense and the Grizzlies' strong interior defense, I like Memphis to come up with their third consecutive cover. Also in line with numberFire's daily game projections, I'm backing the over for this game.

So far, I have focused on why the Bucks' offense could be limited. They could still score enough points for the over, though, as it won't take much with the total sitting at 223. Milwaukee's three-point shooting is one reason to take this side because they have shot 37.5% from downtown over their last seven games and average the seventh-most three-point shots per game. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies give up the 14th-most three-point makes per game and have the seventh-worst mark in opponent three-point percentage.

On the other side of the court, the Bucks have the 14th-worst defensive rating. Three-point shooting could also be the key for Memphis, for they attempt the fifth-most shots in the Association. It's been like shooting fish in a barrel for the Grizzlies as they have converted 39.8% of their three-point looks over the last five games. Despite giving up the 11th-fewest three-point shots per game at 34.5, three of Milwaukee's past four opponents have attempted at least 40 threes. Memphis should have the opportunity to let it fly once again.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Portland Trail Blazers

Over 214.5 (-112)

The Minnesota Timberwolves faced the Portland Trail Blazers on February 13th and came out with the 121-109 win while the over hit. Thursday's total of 214.5 is very close to the 213.5 total from the previous head-to-head meeting. Similar to Tuesday, I see the over hitting once again.

Most of this pick is relying on Minnesota's hot streak on offense. The Timberwolves have totaled 123.5 PPG over their last four contests -- which is well above their season average of 113.7 PPG (11th-fewest). Similar to Tuesday's matchup with 50 points in the paint, Minnesota should have another solid game around the rim with Portland giving up the fourth-most points in the paint.

Attacking the rim could be an even bigger focus for the Wolves as Anthony Edwards (26.1 PPG) is questionable with a knee injury. This would also point to big games for Minnesota's Karl-Anthony Towns (22.5 PPG) and Rudy Gobert (13.8 PPG), who both take at least 54.0% of their shots within 10 feet of the basket. Gobert especially lives around the rim with 95.6% of his field goals taking place within nine feet of the basket.

The Blazers have few strengths on offense, but their three-point shooting should be circled for this matchup. Portland attempts the 17th-most threes per game and made 11 of 29 attempts (37.9%) in Tuesday's collision. While the Trail Blazers will be without their third and fourth-leading scorers in Shaedon Sharpe (15.9 PPG) and Malcolm Brogdon (15.7 PPG), their leading scorer Anfernee Simons (23.3 PPG) is still active. Simons averages the most three-point attempts per game on the team. Portland still has the tools to excel from three-point land.

Dive into the action with FanDuel Sportsbook's No Sweat Same Game Parlay for the upcoming Bucks vs Grizzlies game on February 15th. See the promotions page for more information.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.