NBA Betting Picks for Thursday 12/7/23: Is Indiana Pacing for Another Upset Win?

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks

Pacers +5.5 (-112)

Following a win against the Boston Celtics as a 4.5-point underdog, the Indiana Pacers are looking to continue flourishing in the underdog role. The Milwaukee Bucks are favored by 5.5 points for tonight's semifinal matchup in the NBA's In-Season Tournament, taking place in Las Vegas. According to FanDuel's NBA lines, Indiana has the longest odds to win the tournament (+480), while Milwaukee is the favorite (+160).

If you like fast-paced games with plenty of points, this is the game for you. The Pacers boast the league's best offensive rating while the Bucks have the third-best mark in the category. Indiana totals 128.4 points per game (PPG), which leads the NBA, and Milwaukee averages 122.3 PPG (third-best). These are also the leaders in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) with the Pacers ranking first and the Bucks second. This could be a back-and-forth game with Indiana holding the quickest pace of play while Milwaukee has the fifth-quickest tempo.

Surely, this game has a high total, right? You guessed right, as the number sits at 257.5! While a high-scoring game could be virtually guaranteed, I'm not bold enough to take the over on a 257.5 total. Instead, I'm targeting the Pacers to cover the spread as the underdog once again.

Indiana is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their previous five games as the underdog. Milwaukee has not been a consistent cover at 3-3 ATS over their last six contests. The Pacers certainly have some advantages that could lead to the cover.

Most importantly, Tyrese Haliburton, who comes off an incredible quarterfinal performance with 26 points, 13 assists, and 10 rebounds, has the stage set for another massive outing.

The Bucks' defense has declined this season with the ninth-worst mark in defensive rating. The backcourt has been a clear weakness with Damian Lillard (115.6 defensive rating) and Malik Beasley (116.2 defensive rating) holding underwhelming defensive ratings. Haliburton -- who has the NBA's second-best offensive rating (126.7) among qualifying players -- could deliver another memorable performance in the inaugural In-Season Tournament.

The Pacers' defense has been a clear weakness with the third-worst rating. The unit could struggle to slow Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is in MVP contention with 30.2 PPG, 10.7 rebounds per game (RPG), and 5.2 assists per game (APG). Obi Toppin will likely be tasked with the defensive assignment, and he has the worst defensive rating among Indiana's starters (123.4).

The defense does an excellent job of limiting three-point shots, though, as it gives up only 25.8 three-point attempts per game (the fewest in the NBA). Meanwhile, the Bucks attempt 37.7 three-point attempts per game (ninth-most), and Lillard (25.6 PPG) shoots a team-high 8.4 threes per game. The Pacers could have the perimeter defense to slow Milwaukee's three-point barrage, and most importantly, they could avoid Dame Time.

Indiana could also get some easy looks in the paint because they total the most points in the paint per game. The Bucks have the 15th-worst mark in points in the paint allowed per game.

Limiting Giannis could be the Pacers' biggest challenge. Still, Indiana could keep it close with a point spread cover thanks to Haliburton's play, the perimeter defense, and their paint scoring.

New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers

Lakers -2 (-108)

The In-Season Tournament doubleheader will make a complete 180 for the nightcap between the New Orleans Pelicans and Los Angeles Lakers. It's unlikely that this will be another high-scoring, fast-paced game. Instead, this could be a very physical clash led by solid defenses.

The Pelicans have the 14th-best defensive rating while the Lakers have the 9th-best. New Orleans also attempts 87.7 shots per game (8th-fewest) while holding a 54.3 eFG% (15th-worst), and Los Angeles totals only 85.9 field goal attempts per game (3rd-fewest) with a 53.9 eFG% (13th-worst). Few shot attempts and inefficiency certainly suggest the under (-110).

The battle in the paint could determine this matchup. Both defenses rank in the top half of points in the paint allowed per game (Pelicans 11th-fewest; Lakers 12th-fewest), and the offenses look to consistently attack the painted area. New Orleans totals the ninth-most points in the paint per game while attempting the fourth-fewest threes per game. Los Angeles follows a similar formula with the sixth-most points in the paint per game and the fewest attempted three-pointers per game.

The frontcourt matchup between the Pelicans' Zion Williamson (22.7 PPG) and Jonas Valanciunas (14.2 PPG) against the Lakers' LeBron James (24.7 PPG) and Anthony Davis (23.0 PPG) should be must-see action. Ultimately, I believe LA will have the upper hand in the paint.

Williamson (115.7 defensive rating) and Valanciunas (115.7) carry defensive ratings of over 115.0, and James (110.2) and Davis (112.1) hold above-average defensive ratings.

Brandon Ingram, who is contending for the In-Season Tournament MVP with 27.4 PPG during the tournament contests, and C.J. McCollum (20.7 PPG) could be X-factors for New Orleans. Ingram has been on a tear during the In-Season Tournament, and McCollum averages the most three-point attempts per game among qualifying players on the Pels (7.9).

LA gives up the fifth-most three-point attempts per game, and Austin Reaves has been a defensive liability with a 116.1 rating. Jordan Hawkins (12.9 PPG) is another sharpshooter to watch, as he totals 7.1 three-point shots per contest. If New Orleans can knock down some perimeter shots, this could help open up the paint.

The Pelicans have the 12th-worst three-point percentage, though. Banking on inefficient shooting could be unwise.

The Lakers should have the advantage in the paint, and they average the 4th-most defensive rebounds per game, while the Pelicans average the 14th-most. Winning the glass and paint could lead to the Los Angeles cover.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.