NBA Betting Picks for Thursday 11/16/23: Will the Rolling Thunder Strike the Warriors?

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat

Heat Moneyline (-166)
Over 215.5 (-108)

The Brooklyn Nets against the Miami Heat is the first matchup of NBA TV's doubleheader for tonight. Brooklyn is on a two-game winning streak and is 3-1 over their last four games. Miami is tied with the Houston Rockets for the longest win streak in the league at six consecutive games. Whose hot streak will be extinguished?

The point spread favors the Heat by 3.5 points, but the Nets have the NBA's best against-the-spread (ATS) record at 9-1. Going against Brooklyn's spread could be asking to lose. However, I still believe Miami will add to their winning streak. With that said, I'm targeting the moneyline instead of the spread.

First off, the Nets will be without Cameron Thomas for the third consecutive game. Thomas leads the team with 26.9 points per game (PPG) and a 31.9% usage rate. Various players have stepped up in his absence, though. For example, Spencer Dinwiddie dropped 29 points in Tuesday's win against the Orlando Magic, and Cameron Johnson comes off a 20-point outing while boasting a 63.6% field goal percentage (FG%).

Brooklyn heavily leaned on three-pointers on Tuesday, cashing in 19 of 39 attempts (48.7%). This could be the formula for coming up with another cover against the Heat, who allow 35.5 three-point attempts per game (15th).

Ultimately, Miami's ability to generate turnovers could be the difference in a close battle. They average the fourth-most steals per game (9.1) while the Nets rank last in forced turnovers per game and second-to-last in steals per game. Extra possessions could be vital for this potential thriller.

With only 32.5 attempted three-pointers per game (21st), the Heat mostly shoot two-pointers. This could be the perfect scenario against Brooklyn, which ranks 19th in opponent two-point percentage.

Jimmy Butler is also starting to heat up as he has reached 20 points in three of his last five games. The Nets' Dorian Finney-Smith could draw the matchup with his underwhelming 121.6 defensive rating. Butler could keep it rolling.

In addition to the Heat moneyline, I like the over for this matchup. Brooklyn ranks eighth in offensive rating and could be poised for another high-scoring game due to Miami's tendency to allow plenty of three-point shots.

The Nets are also 18th in defensive rating; Butler and Bam Adebayo could feast against an underwhelming two-point defense. Only 18 of Butler's 123 field goal attempts (FGA) have come from beyond the arc, and Adebayo is shooting 52.5% within 19 feet of the basket.

Pairing Miami to win outright with the over could form an intriguing same-game parlay.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors

Thunder -2.5 (-108)

In the nightcap of the doubleheader, the Oklahoma City Thunder travel to The Bay to take on the Golden State Warriors. OKC has been dominated in this head-to-head matchup (1-9 in last 10), but with Stephen Curry (knee) and Draymond Green (suspension) out, the Thunder could be poised to turn the tide.

Since the start of the 2022-23 season, the Warriors have not played well with Curry and Green. They are 14-13 without Curry in the lineup since last season and 4-8 when Green is absent. Golden State is also 0-1 without Curry and 1-2 without Green this season. I won't go too in depth into what each absence means. This team has been relevant for years; most know the value of Curry and Green.

Curry leads starters with a 115.4 offensive rating and has a team-high 33.4% usage rate while averaging 30.7 PPG. Green continues to be a key piece on the defensive end while being a distributor on offense.

Meanwhile, the Thunder are getting hot, winning four of their last five games. They are also tied for the second-best ATS record (8-3). Oklahoma City could come out with a cover tonight.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to produce at an MVP-level and has averaged 33.8 PPG, 7.0 rebounds per game (RPG), and 5.2 assists per game (APG) while shooting 60.0% from the field over his previous five games since returning from injury. SGA has the seventh-shortest odds to win the MVP award (+1700) when looking at FanDuel's NBA award odds.

The Thunder's star could come up big yet again with a matchup against Chris Paul or Klay Thompson. While Paul has an exceptional 107.4 defensive rating, but the 6-foot guard would be severely undersized against the 6-foot-6 SGA. Thompson also has a mediocre 115.6 defensive rating. Andrew Wiggins has a concerning 118.6 defensive rating. Golden State could have a hard time containing Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams (17.3 PPG), and Josh Giddey (12.5 PPG).

OKC's offense has been a like a well-oiled machine with plenty of impressive shooting stats, which makes sense for the ninth-best team in offensive rating. For example, the Thunder tout the sixth-best mark in effective field goal percentage (eFG%), the third-best FG%, and they rank third in shooting efficiency.

The free throw line has also been a strength with Oklahoma City shooting 85.3% from the charity stripe (2nd). The Warriors have the tendency to foul as they surrender 25.8 free throw attempts per game (27th). The Thunder could stack up points thanks to free throws.

Considering Golden State's recent track record without Curry and Green, give me the Thunder to cover the spread.

Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.