NBA Betting Picks for Thursday 1/11/24: Which Side Should You Back in Celtics-Bucks?

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks

Celtics +4.5 (-110)
Over 242.5 (-110)

Thursday's NBA slate features only five games, but several collisions are high-quality matchups with enticing betting odds. The day begins with the Brooklyn Nets and Cleveland Cavaliers facing off in Paris, France at 2:00 p.m. ET. Then, the league gets back to its normal schedule, including a doubleheader on TNT.

As usual, FanDuel is offering a No-Sweat Same Game Parlay on either NBA game on TNT. The Boston Celtics against the Milwaukee Bucks will likely draw the most eyes as the top matchup of the day. What could be the best picks for the Celtics-Bucks showdown?

The stakes here are about as good as it gets for an NBA regular-season game. Owners of the top two seeds, Boston (+125) and Milwaukee (+210) remain the top choices to win the Eastern Conference, per FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA conference odds. The Celtics are 3-1 over their last four games while the Bucks are 1-3 in that time.

Despite their recent success, Boston has been a much different team on the road (11-8 record) compared to at home (18-0). The Celtics have been consistent against the spread (ATS) at 5-2 over their previous seven away games. I'm looking for this hot streak to continue on Thursday.

Boston leads numberFire's nERD-based power rankings while Milwaukee holds the seventh-best mark. Both teams feature excellent offenses, with the Celtics touting the second-best offensive rating and the Bucks carrying the third-best offensive rating. Boston has a clear advantage with their defense, though; the Celtics sport the 2nd-best defensive rating while Milwaukee has the 10th-worst defensive rating.

The Bucks' offense could be slowed in several categories, leading to a cover for the Celtics. For example, Milwaukee attempts the second-most free throw attempts per contest while Boston gives up the fewest free throws per game. The Bucks also have the second-best two-point shooting percentage, and opponents shoot 51.2% on twos against the Celtics (third-lowest).

Jrue Holiday (112.2 defensive rating) and Derrick White (109.8 defensive rating) are an elite defensive backcourt that can help slow Milwaukee's second-leading scorer, Damian Lillard, who totals 25.1 points per game (PPG). Jayson Tatum (110.0 defensive rating) has also excelled on the defensive end, which could help limit Giannis Antetokounmpo (31.4 PPG). Giannis totaled only 21 points in the last head-to-head meeting between these sides.

Along with their elite defense, Boston has consistently won the possession battle as one of the league's top rebounding teams with the ninth-best offensive rebounding percentage and sixth-best defensive rebounding percentage. Milwaukee totals the eighth-most rebounds per game, but this is simply a product of their pace of play (fourth-fastest). In fact, the Bucks have the 11th-worst defensive rebounding percentage and 7th-worst offensive rebounding percentage.

Backing the best team in the NBA for a cover looks like one of tonight's best bets. But, wait, there's more for this matchup! As previously mentioned, the Bucks defense has struggled, which bodes well for the league's second-best offense.

Boston attempts the most threes per contest, and Milwaukee allows the 18th-most three-point shots each game. The Celtics thrived in this category in November 22's head-to-head matchup, converting 17 of 42 three-pointers (40.5%). This problem could continue for the Bucks as Lillard (117.0 defensive rating) and Malik Beasley (115.8 defensive rating) have been a vulnerable defensive backcourt.

On the other side of the court, Boston's defense is not impenetrable by any means. In fact, three-point defense could also be a problem for the Celtics -- with Milwaukee attempting the eighth-most shots per contest while the Celtics give up the fourth-most threes per game. Plus, opponents average the third-most field goal attempts against Boston. This is exactly the style of game that the Bucks -- who have one of the league's quickest tempos -- want to play.

Pairing a Celtics cover with the over could be a promising building block for a Same Game Parlay.

New York Knicks at Dallas Mavericks

Over 233.5 (-110)

The New York Knicks kick off a two-game road trip by heading south to face the Dallas Mavericks. This matchup features another promising total pick. As they say, everything is bigger in Texas; this could directly apply to the scoreboard featuring large point totals.

The under has been a clear trend for both teams. It has hit in five straight Knicks games and in four of the last five Mavericks games. However, New York features the 9th-best offensive rating while Dallas has the 10th-best rating. Both squads score at a high clip, ranking among the top 13 teams in PPG.

Neither defense has been exceptional, with the Knicks holding the 13th-best defensive rating and the Mavs having the 18th-best mark. This total could soar to the over with both offenses carrying some advantages.

First, let's start with New York's offense. The Knicks' three-point shooting is like beating a dead horse at this point, but they have continued to stay red-hot from beyond the arc. After New York shot 40.0% from deep over the previous four games while attempting 40.8 threes per game, Dallas' perimeter defense could be in trouble.

The Mavericks give up the ninth-most three-point attempts per game, and their backcourt includes underwhelming defensive ratings, such as Kyrie Irving (114.9), Derrick Jones Jr. (115.2), Jaden Hardy (116.1), and Tim Hardaway Jr. (119.3). Luka Doncic is also out with an ankle sprain, which only makes Dallas' rotation smaller.

The Knicks' leading three-point shooters-- including Jalen Brunson (6.6 three-point tries per game) and Donte DiVincenzo (5.8) -- could be in line for exceptional outings. Additionally, OG Anunoby, the trade acquisition from the Toronto Raptors, is worth watching as he is coming off a 23-point performance and set an NBA record as the first player to have a +100 plus/minus in his first five games with a team.

Luka -- who paces the Mavs with a 36.7% usage rate -- will miss his second game over the last four. Doncic has missed four games this season, and in his first three absences, Dallas totaled only 100.0 PPG. However, the Mavericks may have cracked the code without Luka on January 5, recording 139 points while shooting 58.3% from the field in that one.

Three-point shooting was a huge strength in the win, with Dallas converting 17 of 38 attempts (44.7%). They could lean into this strength once again as they attempt the second-most threes per game in the Association.

New York has a solid defense, one that defends the paint particularly well, giving up the eighth-fewest points in the paint per game. The perimeter defense is a different story, though, with the Knicks surrendering the 15th-most three-point shots per game. Additionally, opponents have a 54.8% effective field goal percentage (eFG%) against New York (13th-highest). Dallas has an efficient offense with the ninth-best eFG%.

Threes could be raining in from all directions tonight, leading to the over.

Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.