NBA Betting Picks for Monday 3/11/24: Will Dallas Dodge the Charging Bulls?

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
NBA Betting Picks for Monday 3/11/24: Will Dallas Dodge the Charging Bulls?

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Phoenix Suns at Cleveland Cavaliers

Under 220.5 (-110)

The Cleveland Cavaliers are expected to be without two of their top four scorers tonight as Donovan Mitchell, who totals 28.0 points per game (PPG), and Evan Mobley (15.6 PPG) are dealing with injuries. This is a big blow for an offense that ranks 16th in rating while logging 113.8 PPG (13th-worst).

Mitchell and Mobley combine for about 38.3% of Cleveland's scoring production. Mitchell has missed six consecutive games, and the Cavs have averaged only 111.2 PPG during this span while the under went 4-2.

The under is also 10-0 over the Phoenix Suns' previous 10 contests. Even without two starters, Cleveland still possesses one of the league's top units with the third-best defensive rating.

Each team is also among the top nine squads with the fewest field goal attempts per game. Considering the under trends and the Cavaliers' key injuries, I'm looking for the under to deliver yet again.

Dallas Mavericks at Chicago Bulls

Mavericks -4 (-112)

The Chicago Bulls -- who have the 15th-worst defensive rating -- will play host to the Dallas Mavericks (6th-best offensive rating). Dallas has totaled 123.0 PPG over their last six games while shooting 49.6% from the floor.

While Chicago has surrendered only 114.4 PPG over the previous 10 games, opponents have gotten plenty of three-point looks to the tune of 42.5 shots per game during the Bulls' past six contests. This should be a major worry as Dallas attempts the second-most threes in the Association at 40.0 per game.

Chicago's Lonzo Ball and Zach LaVine continue to be out of the lineup due to injuries. Their current starting backcourt of Coby White (116.9 defensive rating) and Ayo Dosunmu (117.2 defensive rating) have concerning defensive marks.

This could spell out a big game for the Mavs' Kyrie Irving (25.5 PPG), who has his points prop set at 24.5 points. Kyrie also attempts the third-most threes per game on Dallas, which coincides with the Bulls' recent tendency to allow threes in bulk.

Ultimately, I believe the Mavericks' offense will roll tonight, leading to a cover against the spread (ATS).

Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs

Over 227 (-112)

To round out my picks for today, I'm targeting another total for the Golden State Warriors against the San Antonio Spurs. Golden State totals 118.7 PPG (seventh-most) while San Antonio features the eighth-worst defensive rating.

The over hit in Saturday's head-to-head matchup as the Spurs came out with the surprise 126-113 win. San Antonio could replicate this success as they shot 51.2% from the field and converted 17 of 33 three-pointers (51.5%).

Golden State gives up the sixth-most three-point shots, and their last two opponents have made a combined 33 of 69 shots from deep (47.8%). This susceptible perimeter defense still remains for tonight's matchup, and the Spurs shoot the 11th-most threes in the league.

Of course, San Antonio's defense struggles in various categories. The unit gives up the sixth-most PPG, has the seventh-worst mark in opponent effective field goal percentage (eFG%), and seventh-worst field goal percentage (FG%).

The Warriors made only 10 of 30 three-pointers (33.3%) in the previous head-to-head matchup. This felt like a lucky break for the Spurs, for they have the fourth-worst mark in opponent three-point percentage. Golden State's three-point efficiency should get back on track.

The over looks like a favorable bet for this Western Conference clash.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.