NBA Betting Picks for Monday 12/18/23: Will the Cavs Cover Against Houston?

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Houston Rockets at Cleveland Cavaliers

Cavaliers -4.0 (-110)

The Houston Rockets (13-10) and Cleveland Cavaliers (14-12) enter this clash with similar records but different feelings about how their seasons have gone so far. For Houston in its first season under Ime Udoka, their current standing of ninth in the West marks a drastic improvement from last season, when they finished with just 22 wins.

For Cleveland, after finishing last season with a 51-31 record, their current standing of eighth in the East is likely below their expectations.

As solid as Houston has been overall, their season has been a tale of two cities -- Houston and any other city the Rockets have played in. At home, the Rockets are 11-1 with the fourth-best net rating in the league (+12.6). On the road, Houston is 2-9 with the ninth-worst net rating (-6.4). The main reason is their defense -- away from home the Rockets' offensive rating drops slightly from 112.7 to 110.9, but their defensive rating shifts from 110.2 to 117.3.

That is music to the ears of the Cavaliers, whose main weakness this season has been their offense. They have the eighth-worst offensive rating (111.8) and the ninth-best defensive rating (111.9).

Cleveland enters this contest with three losses in their last four games, but two of those losses came against the Boston Celtics, who rank second in net rating, and the other was against the Orlando Magic, who rank eighth. On Saturday, the Cavaliers beat the Atlanta Hawks, 127-119. The 127 points was their second-highest total of the season.

The Rockets are, of course, a much better defensive team overall than Atlanta is, but on the road, Houston's and Atlanta's defensive ratings are similar.

Adding to the difficulty for Houston today is their schedule. This is the second game of a back-to-back for the Rockets and their third road game in four days.

It all adds up to a situation that looks favorable for Cleveland despite Houston's recent string of results -- five wins in their last six.

Los Angeles Clippers at Indiana Pacers

Under 246.0 (-110)

The status of Tyrese Haliburton looms large for this game. He is listed as questionable with a left knee bruise that kept him out of Saturday's loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Indiana Pacers and overs have been an effective combination so far this season. The over has hit in 18 of Indiana's 25 games (72%), and when you look at their advanced metrics, it's easy to see why. The Pacers rank first in both pace (104.58) and offensive rating (121.9) while also sporting the third-worst in defensive rating (120.4). They play fast, score, and allow their opponents to score. A perfect formula for points.

On the road, this formula goes into overdrive for Indiana. They rank first in pace (105.04) and offensive rating (121.9), but their defensive rating moves from third-worst to last (127.0). However, when the Pacers play at home, as they will on Monday, their ratings shift the other way. At home this season, they still rank first in pace (104.13), but they are fourth in offensive rating (121.9) and 17th in defensive rating (113.8).

Their improvement in defense at home is notable -- they shift from being the worst defense on the road to a middling D at home, better than nearly half the league.

The other half of this equation is the Los Angeles Clippers, who are on the opposite end of things when it comes to pace. The Clippers rank 22nd in pace this season (98.75), but on the road, that falls to 25th (98.25). Away from home, they rank ninth in offensive rating (115.7) and 15th in defensive rating (115.2). The over has hit in just nine of the Clippers' 25 games this season (36%).

The Pacers are back home on Monday after a five-game road trip where they lost their last three. Los Angeles enters this one as one of the hottest teams in the league, undefeated in December with seven consecutive wins -- six of which came at home.

With the Clippers' current form and the Pacers' underlying metrics, this game's high over/under is well deserved. However, at home, the Pacers play better defense, and their quick pace should be offset slightly by the Clips' slower play on the road. That's enough for me to lean toward the under.

Washington Wizards at Sacramento Kings

Under 248.0 (-112)

This is another spot on Monday where we can consider the under on a high game total.

The status of De'Aaron Fox, who is listed as questionable with right shoulder irritation, will have an impact on this one. He is looking to return after sitting out on Saturday.

The Sacramento Kings enter this one as the largest favorite (-12.5) on Monday's 11-game slate. They have four wins in their last five games and have been an excellent side at home this season, where they are 9-3 with the 11th-best offensive rating (118.6) and ninth-worst defensive rating (115.3). They are hosting a Washington Wizards squad that ranks fifth-worst in net rating (-8.8) on the road this season.

Both teams play fast. Playing at home this season, Sacramento ranks eighth in pace (101.45) while the Wizards rank second in pace on the road (105.04). Both sides are also no strangers to overs. The over has hit in 60% of Sacramento's games this season and 54% of the Wizards' outings.

Tonight, the outcome may rest on the Wizards' offense. Washington ranks eighth-worst in offensive rating on the road this season. Kyle Kuzma has been slightly more productive on the road (24.6 points per game) than at home (20.8 points per game), but Jordan Poole has been much worse.

Away from home this season, Poole is shooting 38.8% from the field and 29.2% from behind the arc. In his four away games this month, Poole is averaging 11.8 points per game and shooting a combined 14-47 (29.8%) from the field and 3-19 (15.7%) from three. He averages the second-most field goal attempts (14.9) and three-point field goal attempts (6.1) in Washington's away games this season.

Poole's struggles have resulted in the Wizards averaging just 107.75 points per road game in December.

The potential for points is certainly in there in this contest, but Washington's poor road offense is enough for me to prefer the under.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.