NBA Betting Picks for Monday 1/29/24: Will the Timberwolves or Thunder Grab First Place?

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Los Angeles Clippers at Cleveland Cavaliers

Under 225 (-110)

The Los Angeles Clippers against the Cleveland Cavaliers is a must-see matchup between two of the league's hottest teams. The Clippers are 8-2 over their last 10 games while the Cavs have gone 9-1 during the same stretch. Both teams are led by exceptional defenses; Cleveland has the 3rd-best defensive rating while Los Angeles has the 11th-best unit. As you probably guessed, this has led to a low game total at 225.

This is not guaranteed to be a low-scoring game, though, for the Clippers have the fourth-best offensive rating, and the Cavaliers have averaged 121.0 points per game (PPG) over their previous five contests.

With that said, I still like the under due to each team's pace of play; L.A. has the 5th-slowest pace of play while Cleveland has the 10th-slowest. Of course, this leads to plenty of low-scoring contests with both squads among the top 10 for the fewest field goal attempts per game. The under is 5-2 in the Cavs' past seven contests, and it has hit in back-to-back Clippers games.

Slowing Los Angeles' offense can be tricky due to their jaw-dropping efficiency. This includes the Association's fourth-best effective field goal percentage (eFG%), the fifth-best field goal percentage (FG%), and top three-point percentage in the league. Cleveland's defense seems to stand a chance of slowing the buzzsaw, though.

In fact, the Cavaliers have given up only 101.4 PPG over the previous 10 games. The interior defense has been excellent, allowing the sixth-fewest points in the paint per game, and it could get even better tonight with Evan Mobley (109.4 defensive rating) trending towards playing in his first game since December 6th.

Most importantly, the Cavaliers allow the eighth-fewest three-point attempts and makes per game. This is vital against the NBA's most efficient three-point barrage.

Los Angeles could finally have an off-night against an elite defense, leading to a slow-paced game and the under.

Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat

Suns Moneyline (+128)

South Beach features an exciting clash between two potential playoff teams in the Phoenix Suns and Miami Heat. According to FanDuel's NBA playoff odds, the Suns are -420 to earn a postseason berth while the Heat are -950.

Phoenix flashed their championship potential with a seven-game winning streak but since have dropped back-to-back contests while going 0-2 against the spread (ATS). Miami has went on an even worse slide with six straight losses paired with an 0-6 record ATS. Which team has the best shot of getting back on track?

Frankly, I'm not sure why the Heat are favored by 3.5 points in this one. Miami is at home, which certainly has a major factor in this spread, but they have failed to cover three consecutive games in the Kaseya Center.

The Heat made headlines about a week ago after landing Terry Rozier via trade. This made Miami a more intriguing contender, but the move has yet to yield success with Rozier totaling only 8.7 PPG with a -18.3 plus/minus over his first three games in a Heat uniform. It feels like a blizzard has tore through one of the nation's warmest states with Miami's offense averaging only 100.7 PPG paired with a 43.7 FG%.

Even after two consecutive losses, there are still plenty of positives for the Suns right now. This includes Devin Booker's mind-boggling play with 50.7 PPG over his last three outings.

Phoenix's big three is rolling while totaling 120.0 PPG over the last 10 games. With the Heat's struggling offense, give me the Suns to pull off the upset on the road.

Miami could lack the defenders to slow Phoenix's stars. For example, the Heat's starting backcourt of Rozier (132.8 defensive rating with the Heat) and Tyler Herro (117.2 defensive rating) are susceptible on the defensive end and could be torched by Booker (122.3 offensive rating) and Bradley Beal (118.7 offensive rating). Booker and/or Beal are promising props that could be paired with the Suns' moneyline for FanDuel's 30% Profit Boost for a 3+ Leg Same Game Parlay on any sport today.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder

Thunder -2.5 (-114)

The top matchup of Monday is a battle between the Western Conference's top teams as the Minnesota Timberwolves visit the Oklahoma City Thunder. The two squads are tied for the No. 1 seed in the West and the second-best record in the NBA.

With Minnesota carrying a 2-3 record while going 1-4 ATS over their last five games, Oklahoma City could be the side to back. The Thunder tout the sixth-best home record in the NBA and are 4-2 ATS over the last six contests.

Over the last four games, the T-Wolves' defense (first in rating) has also shown some cracks in the armor. Opponents have shot 37.9% from three during the span; Minnesota otherwise gives up the sixth-fewest three-point shots per game and has the seventh-best mark in opponent three-point percentage.

Three of the past four opponents have also reached 50 points in the paint. This is a bit out of character for the Wolves; they allow the third-fewest points in the paint per contest (46.0). OKC has the ability to attack both areas with the fifth-most points in the paint per game and the third-best three-point percentage.

On the other side of the court, Minnesota ranks within the top half in points in the paint per game. The Thunder's paint defense has been like an airtight safe, giving up the second-fewest points in the paint per contest while carrying the second-best mark in opponent two-point percentage.

Oklahoma City's ability to generate turnovers could also be a difference maker. They average the second-most steals per game, which looks like a recipe for disaster for the Timberwolves who total the third-most turnovers each game.

With the second-best offensive rating in the Association, the Thunder could have success against the NBA's top defense. Plus, OKC could have an advantage in the possession department thanks to their pesky guards who generate steals -- such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2.2 steals per game).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.