NBA

NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 2/25/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 2/25/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

Our favorite picks are to come, but don't forget to check out FanDuel's Parlay Hub for other trending bets for all sports -- including basketball.

Without further delay, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns

Over 241.0 (-110)
D'Angelo Russell Over 2.5 Threes Made (-125)

We should have a good one in "The Valley" the way these two teams are getting up and down the floor.

Over every team's respective last 15 games, the Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix Suns are top-four clubs in pace. Los Angeles' defensive rating has also plummeted to 117.5 in this time even if Phoenix (113.2) has maintained a respectable rate.

It's not often you see two top-five pace squads with average-to-below-average defenses just creeping above a 240-point total in the modern NBA. The Lakers, specifically, have topped 120 points in five of their last seven games, providing plenty of optimism they can push toward this number again while the favored Suns -- loaded with stars -- keep pace.

If they do, expect D'Angelo Russell to play a part. Russell's resurgence is a huge reason why the Lake Show offense has taken off; he's posted 20.3 points per game in February. Specifically from downtown, D'Lo has tried 8.3 triples per game this month and banged them home at an elite 40.9% clip.

Therefore, I'm not sure why he carries just -125 odds for threes today. Phoenix's interior defense is sturdy, but they've allowed the fourth-most threes per game to opposing point guards over their last 15 games (3.8).

FanDuel Research's NBA projections have Russell cashing 2.9 triples at a median today. I'll back him.

Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers

Over 251.5 (-112)
PJ Washington Over 17.5 Points and Rebounds (-104)
Bennedict Mathurin Over 16.5 Points (-102)

At 123.8 points per game this season, the Indiana Pacers are tracking toward a top-10 mark all-time in per-game scoring. Now, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are in town to keep pace? This might the League Pass appointment of the day.

I'll absolutely back a total encroaching 260 as these clubs meet. In their last 15 games, Indiana is 8th in pace, and Dallas is 11th. However, these teams are much worse defensively than our prior ones. The Pacers' 117.6 defensive rating in this period is eighth-worst, and the Mavericks (116.3) aren't substantially better.

With a total this large, you're not going to find correlating star props with value, but these role players stood out in FDR's projections.

The newly-acquired PJ Washington could make his presence truly felt for the Mavs in this elite matchup. Indiana has allowed the fifth-most points and eighth-most rebounds per game to power forwards over their last 15 contests. Washington has now exceeded 28 minutes in three straight at that spot for Dallas. FanDuel Research has him pegged at 14.1 points and 5.0 rebounds (19.1 total) despite this combo prop sitting at just 17.5 -- and close to even money.

On the other side, Aaron Nesmith will sit again for Indiana and open the door to Bennedict Mathurin in a full-time role once again. Benny Math logged 35 minutes as a starter in the Pacers' lone game following the break on Thursday, and he's posted 20.0 points per 36 minutes overall this season. He scored 15 despite 35.7% shooting against the Detroit Pistons three days ago.

FDR has Mathurin tabbed for 17.9 points at a median in this projected shootout. With better shooting splits, he could soar past this 16.5-point mark.

Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors

Warriors -2 (-112)

The public can give us layups at times. Regardless of the result tonight, this spread was a layup to take.

59% of bettors at FanDuel are backing the defending champion Denver Nuggets tonight on the road, but 51% of the handle is on the Golden State Warriors for a reason. They're playing significantly better right now.

Golden State's +9.9 net rating in their past 15 games is third-best in the entire NBA over that time frame, and Denver (-0.5) is outright struggling. That mark is even more noteworthy when the Nuggets have played the Portland Trail Blazers and Washington Wizards a combined five times in that stretch.

Plus, Denver has a -6.2 net rating in this time when away from the Mile High City. Nikola Jokic has played a vast majority of these games; they're just not very good at present.

Only laying a basket with the better team feels like a no-brainer when also fading the public. numberFire's model expects Golden State to prevail 54.0% of the time tonight.

Chicago Bulls at New Orleans Pelicans

Under 224.0 (-112)

The New Orleans Pelicans' point guard absences could lead to a low-scoring affair in NOLA on Sunday.

New Orleans will be without C.J. McCollum (ankle) and Jose Alvarado (suspension), but it could get even worse with Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram also questionable. Even at full health, this game looks like an under.

In the past 15 games for each club, the Pels play at the league's ninth-slowest pace with its eighth-best defensive rating. The visiting Chicago Bulls are a fairly neutral opponent for them, ranking 25th in pace and 21st in defensive rating in this same period. This tempo is slow, and key scoring absences could make swishing buckets even more challenging.

nF's model is expecting an under 63.4% of the time in this spot.

San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz

Devin Vassell Over 28.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-111)
Collin Sexton Over 1.5 Threes (-128)

While not having a firm stance on this game's 240.5-point total, these young clubs should produce a modest environment for props.

I really wanted to get to Devin Vassell in some capacity after a 3-for-15 shooting effort on Friday, and the number just so happened to come in a friendly spot. Vassell has combined for 29.7 points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) per game in February, and this slight discount from those counting stats is a bit odd to see. The Utah Jazz have allowed the 8th-most points, 10th-most rebounds, and 7th-most assists to twos over their past 15 contests.

FDR has Vassell projected for 29.1 combined PRA on Sunday.

On the flip side, the San Antonio Spurs have let shooting guards have their way from downtown, so let's look at Vassell's counterpart, Collin Sexton. Specifically, the Spurs have allowed the second-most triples per game to opposing SGs (3.8) over their last 15 games.

The former top-10 pick is certainly capable of keeping that going. Sexton has taken 5.0 threes per game in February, splashing 45.0% of them. Sexton is projected for 1.6 threes in this game in just 28.5 projected minutes, but he's hit at least two in five straight games as his playing time has dipped.

I just see no reason in this matchup why that wouldn't continue.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.