NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 11/5/23

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Phoenix Suns at Detroit Pistons

Killian Hayes Over 11.5 Points and Assists (-118)

This afternoon matinee comes with a line that I truly can't believe exists. It speaks to the ineptitude of Killian Hayes on the court sometimes, but I think we can take the over in a game forecasted to be competitive. This spread is just 5.5 points.

With Alec Burks out on Thursday, Hayes logged playoff-level minutes (39). He turned that into 10 points and 9 assists -- production that would destroy that prop if simply repeated. Burks' absence cleared the logjam in the Detroit Pistons' court, and Hayes got a massive boost while Jaden Ivey (22 minutes) stayed put.

With Burks doubtful on Sunday, I'd expect that to continue. Hayes averaged just 27.2 minutes with Burks in the lineup this season, but he averaged 30.2 minutes per game in March as Burks was out of the fold. He should have a full-time role, but the historical average models that generated this prop might not quite have encapsulated the shift.

numberFire's model has Hayes at 16.9 projected points and assists, creating perhaps the best value on a prop you'll see all day.

Toronto Raptors at San Antonio Spurs

Raptors -4 (-108)

After the San Antonio Spurs ripped two games off a preseason favorite, the Phoenix Suns, the public loves Victor Wembanyama's club. 77% of the tickets in this contest are behind the Spurs, but more losses should be in San Antonio's future playing as they are.

The Spurs' -6.8 net rating is fifth-worst in the NBA, and they've been absolutely pummeled for 54.0 points in the paint per game (fourth-worst). As you'd expect with a young team, there are growing pains on defense that Wembanyama alone can't address.

Meanwhile, the Toronto Raptors are probably unfortunate to be 2-4. Their net rating is just -0.8, and they've got the eighth-best defensive rating (107.4) in the league. While not the most prolific shooting team in the league, their 54.8 true shooting percentage (TS%) is eighth-worst in the league, and shots will be easier to come by against such a porous defense.

Toronto has been the better club all year; we should expect the Spurs' train to crash soon.

Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers

Cavaliers -1.5 (-110)
Under 221.5 (-110)

The Golden State Warriors have escaped each of their last two games by a late basket, and that's usually a team you want to fade for value purposes. It also helps the health arrow isn't moving in their direction on Sunday.

Klay Thompson (groin) is questionable to play in this one, and I'm, personally, expecting the 5-1 Warriors to play it safe with one of their foundational pieces. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Cavaliers got back Jarrett Allen and Darius Garland, and the rim-protector (Allen) is a massive deal for the Cavs. They have a 112.6 defensive rating this season with Allen off the floor, but their 109.9 rating last year led the NBA as he played a near-full slate of games.

Like Toronto, this is another surprise favorite with an underdog that is getting 84% of the total tickets on the spread. It's not an accident or a handout; this is a tough spot for a team that's barely squeaked by two lesser foes.

As for the total, the pace factor is concerning, but these should be two elite defensive clubs when factoring in court situations. The Dubs have an absurd 104.1 defensive rating with Thompson -- usually replaced by the defensively stellar Gary Payton II -- off the floor this season, and Cleveland's success with Allen in a large sample is well-documented.

I'm willing to bypass the top-10 paces these teams have played with thus far to expect a defensive struggle in "The Land".

Charlotte Hornets at Dallas Mavericks

Over 234.5 (-110)
Kyrie Irving Over 23.5 Points (-115)

I think I'll just keep betting overs in Charlotte Hornets contests until the market adjusts.

Charlotte combined with the Indiana Pacers for 249 total points on Saturday, and on tired legs, the Dallas Mavericks profile to give them another shootout if they want one. Dallas plays at the league's ninth-fastest pace (102.1) with its ninth-worst defensive rating (114.9).

There's an injury concern here; Terry Rozier (groin) left yesterday's game and didn't return. Without an official report, you'd have to consider him closer to doubtful, and that takes a dynamic guard out of the fold. However, Brandon Miller (114.4 offensive rating) is the second-best player on offense for the Hornets this year, and he'll likely replace Rozier in the lineup.

This still seems like a good spot for offense given that Miller can supplant most of the scoring -- even if their depth is a challenge. Plus, LaMelo Ball (43.4 TS%) has plenty of room to improve from a horrid start shooting the basketball, and more shots in Rozier's stead could help.

As for a prop in this one, I'll call my shot that we finally get a signature scoring effort from Kyrie Irving. Irving hasn't topped 22 points in a game this year after averaging 27.0 per game last year after being acquired by the Mavs. Irving's usage rate (25.8%) is still extremely healthy, and this matchup couldn't get much better for him. Charlotte is allowing the third-most points per game to two guards (25.6), and he'll occupy the off-ball role alongside Luka Doncic tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.