NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 11/12/23

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers

Over 224.5 (-110)
James Harden Over 23.5 Points and Assists (-106)

I know it's in vogue to rip on James Harden and the Los Angeles Clippers, but L.A. didn't give up a tangible piece of true value off their current roster for Harden; we can get value in betting markets as they're getting torn apart by the media.

The spread between the Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies is a little wide (8.5 points) to lay, but the Clippers were able to figure things out against the Dallas Mavericks offensively. They had a 128.6 offensive rating against Dallas, whose season-long defensive rating (115.7) is in the same neighborhood as Memphis' (112.8).

Meanwhile, the Clips' 121.6 defensive rating since acquiring Harden is no blip on the radar. They're a small team allowing the fourth-most second chance points per game (17.0) in the league. These two teams also play at top-16 paces in the NBA, so the clunkiness and uncertainty around Harden might be the only reason this line isn't encroaching 230 points.

As for Harden, he had a low usage rate (14.1%) in L.A.'s last game, but he's still topped 12 points in every game with the Clippers, and Harden had 9.0 potential assists in a 29-minute blowout effort. numberFire's projections are bullish on him like perhaps no other player in the prop markets. It's expecting 18.4 points and 8.8 assists from Harden in a full day's work against a so-so Memphis defense.

While the spread is harrowing, L.A. likely picks up their first win today with "The Beard" starring in his first home game.

Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs

Spurs Team Total Under 110.5 (-108)

As was the case yesterday, we'll target Miami Heat unders for a short while as they adjust to life without Tyler Herro.

In medium-to-high leverage situations, Miami's offensive rating drops from 112.1 with Herro on the floor to 103.5 without him, but their defensive rating improves from 113.0 to 103.1 without their worst defender on the floor. The net rating impact is almost negligible, so I'm hoping that stays under the radar a bit.

It certainly did awarding the San Antonio Spurs a 110.5-point implied team total today. San Antonio's 107.8 offensive rating is fourth-worst in the NBA already, and they'll be up against a Heat team that, in its current state, would be one of the top-three defensive teams in basketball.

numberFire's model is pegging the Spurs with 106.9 total points, which is plenty of breathing room beneath this prop.

This market is a bit specialized, so if your only legal sportsbook doesn't have team totals, Under 221.5 (-112) can work, but I'm a bit trepidatious when Miami posted 119 points yesterday and the Spurs' 120.0 defensive rating is worst in the NBA.

Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets

Rockets +4.5 (-110)
Nikola Jokic Under 29.5 Points (-115)

Who could have guessed this would be a competitive affair before the season started?

The Houston Rockets are one of the league's best stories, substituting Ime Udoka as coach and adding Fred VanVleet to entirely reshape the organization's future. Their +5.3 net rating is sixth-best in the NBA so far with no key injuries to report.

That's, unfortunately, not the case for the reigning champs. The Denver Nuggets' key issue entering the year was depth to maintain the health of their star players, and already, Jamal Murray will sit for the rest of November with a hamstring issue. Denver's +10.8 net rating is still third-best in the league and has, amazingly, improved without Murray, but they've also faced one of the easier schedules in the league.

85% of the tickets and 87% of the handle at FanDuel Sportsbook are on the Nuggets to cover tonight, but I'll take the upstart Rockets to make it a one-possession game or win outright.

One of the key improvements for the Rockets has been interior defense, limiting centers to the fewest points per game (15.6) in the NBA thus far. Nikola Jokic has posted at least 33 points in three of his past four games, so many might click right on the reigning Finals MVP expecting another scoring surge. In a tough matchup, I'm not sure Jokic has the environment to drop 30 when this game total (216.5) between two bottom-10 teams in pace is incredibly low.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors

Timberwolves +1.5 (-110)

Hard truths become evident throughout the year, and one might be that -- especially with Murray injured for Denver -- the Minnesota Timberwolves could stunningly emerge from the Northwest Division.

Minnesota's +9.6 net rating is fourth in the NBA and right behind Denver, and their schedule-adjusted player impact estimate (PIE) is the best in the NBA (54.1). The Nuggets would be favored tonight against the Golden State Warriors, so I'm not sure why Minnesota is a 'dog -- and I'm especially not sure why 63% of the tickets and handle are on the Dubs.

Golden State could have rest candidates on a back-to-back, which would only hurt a net rating (+3.0) that lags considerably behind that of the T-Wolves. Plus, the two-center lineup that Minnesota famously deploys could feast on a Warriors team allowing the fourth-most points per game to centers (26.1) in the league.

At plus money, Timberwolves ML (+102) might be valuable to lock in now before the Warriors' injury report is officially announced.

Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers

Trail Blazers +10.0 (-110)
Jerami Grant Over 28.5 Points and Assists (-111)

Who are the Los Angeles Lakers to lay 10 points against anybody?

The Portland Trail Blazers are certainly ravaged by injury, missing their primary, secondary, and tertiary point guards. That still can't possibly lead to a double-digit spread for the Lakers -- even at home. L.A. has a -6.1 net rating, which is the sixth-worst mark in the NBA, and that's likely how they're 3-6 against the spread (ATS) to this point.

In fact, Portland has a better net rating (-4.8) than Los Angeles. They actually have a +2.1 net rating in floor situations with Anfernee Simons, Scoot Henderson, and Malcolm Brogdon all off the floor in medium-to-high leverage situations. At least on paper while still acknowledging the upside Anthony Davis and LeBron James can bring, the Blazers might be the better team right this second.

With that the case, I'll happily take the points in this spot. I'll also expect a huge night out of Portland's best remaining offensive player, Jerami Grant, in the event of keeping it close. Grant took 25 shots as Brogdon exited early last game, leading to a mammoth 34.7% usage rate. That would have been a top-five mark in the NBA last year.

The Lakers' four spot next to A.D. has been a problem all year. They've allowed the sixth-most points (26.8) and sixth-most assists (4.7) per game to the position. With Grant handling the ball more than he has all season, those issues should be on display for all to see.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.