NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 3/16/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 3/16/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

Our favorite picks are to come, but don't forget to check out FanDuel's Parlay Hub for other trending bets for all sports -- including basketball.

Without further delay, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Cleveland Cavaliers at Houston Rockets

Rockets +4.5 (-108)

Two key big men are out of this game, but with that largely washing out, I'll take over a basket margin at home with the Houston Rockets.

Houston, of course, is without Alperen Sengun (ankle) for the rest of the season, but Evan Mobley (ankle) will also be unavailable for the visiting Cleveland Cavaliers. In an even stranger twist, both teams actually have a better net rating this season with their respective starting bigs off the floor.

With that the case, these teams are too close recently for this spread. In the last 15 games, Cleveland (-0.9) barely edges out Houston (-1.3) in overall net rating. Diving into this home-road split during the period, Houston's home net rating (+1.0) nearly matches what the Cavs are putting out on the road (+1.8).

numberFire's model expects Houston to cover 57.6% of the time tonight -- up from these 52.3% implied odds.

Charlotte Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers

Hornets +10.5 (-108)

The Charlotte Hornets played yesterday, and while risking a poor effort from a tired team well out of playoff contention, the recent data for these teams strongly suggests taking the points.

The bottom has fallen out for the Philadelphia 76ers without Joel Embiid; they've posted an ugly -6.7 net rating in their own building without him over the last 15 games. Their overall net rating in this time (-5.9) is sixth-worst in basketball.

Surprisingly, the Hornets -- post a trade-deadline makeover -- have been playing better ball. Charlotte has a -4.0 net rating overall in their last 15 games, and it doesn't drop considerably further on the road (-7.2) for such a young team.

If this were a smaller margin, you could be worried about the rest component here, but Charlotte's youth aids those concerns, as well. Taking double digits with Buzz City seems like a no-brainer when the Sixers are a playoff team in name only at this point.

Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers

Nets Team Total Over 109.5 (-106)
Mikal Bridges Over 23.5 Points and Rebounds (-118)

Over the last 15 games, the Brooklyn Nets have played at the fourth-slowest pace in the NBA. That adds ambiguity to this game's overall total, but their respective team total is just too low.

The opposing Indiana Pacers have the fifth-best pace and eighth-worst defensive rating in the Association during this same period, which should help a Brooklyn offense with known streaky scorers. The Nets' 110.3 offensive rating during the last 15 isn't exactly a great mark, but it's also not outlierishly poor.

numberFire's model is well above the market here, expecting 118.1 points at a median for New York's other squad. With such an overperformance expected, we can turn to one of the aforementioned scorers, as well.

This seems like a prime spot for Mikal Bridges to ball out. Indiana has allowed the seventh-most points and seventh-most rebounds to opposing small forwards over the last 15 games, and Bridges' 37.7 minutes per game this month will keep him in that spot often.

FanDuel Research's NBA projections expect 20.6 points and 5.1 rebounds from the charismatic wing today, exceeding this prop mark with ease.

Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls

Over 224 (-112)

I usually love to take props in overs, but Coby White (hip) has most of the Chicago Bulls' props blown past value today. We can still take the total.

This pedestrian mark was pretty shocking to discover when most of these two clubs' formula screams over. In the last 15 games, the Bulls have the league's second-worst defensive rating (118.7), and the Washington Wizards (118.0) are right on their heels. Poor defense? Check.

From a pace perspective, it's a mixed bag. Washington has played at the league's fastest pace in that stretch, and the Bulls (20th) rank in the bottom-10 teams. Still, the average tempo between them is an overall positive.

numberFire's model is a fan of the over here, too. It's projecting 228.8 median points between these clubs, expecting the over to cash 58.8% of the time.

Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers

Stephen Curry Over 34.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-115)

For now, we're left with just Stephen Curry (ankle) in FanDuel's prop markets since he's a game-time call. As a worst-case scenario, this will be voided, and we'll head back to the Golden State Warriors' prop market later.

This is a good market to search through. Entering this primetime showdown, the Los Angeles Lakers have the league's third-worst defensive rating over their last 15 games. L.A. also ranks 12th in pace. Combining them together, the Lake Show are one of the best prop matchups in the league at present.

It's not like Curry is a stranger to taking advantage of them. Steph is averaging 38.0 points, 7.5 assists, and 2.0 rebounds per game in his first two matchups with the Purple and Gold this season.

Assuming Golden State hasn't rushed their heliocentric force back into a minutes limit, Curry should have a full workload tonight. FDR's projections are listing Steph at 24.9 points, 5.9 assists, and 5.1 rebounds for Saturday's high-totaled affair. That's good for 35.3 PRA in just 31.9 minutes, which could be a conservative estimate for the guard's floor time.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.