NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 2/3/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Golden State Warriors at Atlanta Hawks

Jalen Johnson Over 8.5 Rebounds (-111)
Bogdan Bogdanovic 4+ Threes Made (+185)
Andrew Wiggins Over 19.5 Points and Rebounds (-104)

With no strong lean on this game's lofty, 244.5-point total, let's just dig some props out of what is sure to be an offensive funhouse.

Over every team's last respective 10 games, the Atlanta Hawks are 2nd in the NBA in pace (102.55), and the Golden State Warriors are 13th. Golden State's defense has the 4th-worst defensive rating (122.9) in this same time -- a category which Atlanta is a surprisingly competent 14th. However, the Hawks are missing Saddiq Bey after an ankle injury suffered last night; expect their D's rating to falter before long without him.

Down Bey, Jalen Johnson is going to get all the minutes he can handle, and that should mean rebounding volume. Johnson averages 9.36 rebounds per 36 minutes with Bey and De'Andre Hunter off the floor. Hunter is likely back after yesterday's maintenance day, but he's averaged 16.0 minutes per game since returning and won't be a huge factor. numberFire's projections are pegging Johnson for 9.0 rebounds tonight, so the over appears to be the side at a pick 'em.

A key injury should also open the door for Bogdan Bogdanovic to encroach his minutes total from last night (35), and he's no stranger to letting it fly with court time. Bogie averages 10.9 three-point attempts per 36 with Atlanta's same duo of small forwards out of the lineup. At a median, numberFire is projecting Bogdanovic for 3.9 three-point makes, so +185 odds that he cashes four of them (shooting around 40% from his normal volume) are a steal.

On the other side, Atlanta's issues defending power forwards won't be helped by Bey's injury. They've ceded the third-most points and fourth-most rebounds to the position over their past 15 games. Enter Andrew Wiggins, whose topped 29 minutes back in a full role in each of his last 8 games. Wiggins is projected for 21.1 points and boards by nF; the value is too good to pass up with him, as well.

Sacramento Kings at Chicago Bulls

Bulls -2 (-112)

Rest will play a factor in this one. The Sacramento Kings logged a 255-point shootout in Indiana yesterday, and the Chicago Bulls have been chilling since their Wednesday win over the Charlotte Hornets.

At home, the Bulls have been the better side over each team's last 10 games. They've got a slight edge in net rating at +0.7 to Sacramento's +0.3 in that time.

The individual split here also slightly favors the Bulls. They have a +1.8 net rating at home to Kings' +1.5 mark on the road, which is admittedly pretty solid and sits 10th-best in the NBA.

numberFire's model is pointing to this spot (including rest) as a reason to back Chicago. It's pegging them 63.0% to win outright, and 8 of the 12 most similar historical spots in the model were won (and covered) by the home team.

Los Angeles Lakers at New York Knicks

Knicks -4 (-114)
Donte DiVincenzo Over 29.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-118)

I'm a contrarian bettor and cynical by nature, but I'm riding with the public -- and numberFire's model -- to back the New York Knicks at home tonight in primetime.

New York's +10.5 net rating in their building trails only the Boston Celtics, which comes as no surprise for arguably the two best fanbases in the sport. On the flip side, the visiting Los Angeles Lakers have the sixth-worst road net rating (-7.3).

This feels like an extreme overreaction to L.A.'s outright win over the Celtics on Thursday without LeBron James or Anthony Davis because the Lakers are a mediocre three-point shooting team (36.9%) that shot 52.8% from deep in that one. numberFire expects the Knicks to win by 10.3 points at a median and cover this four-point spread 66.1% of the time.

In the process of doing so, Donte DiVincenzo should get back on track. DiVincenzo prop bettors were scorned on Thursday as he went 8-for-26 from the floor (30.8%), but the role in that game was the real takeaway. With a 61.3 TS% this season, he's a much more efficient player on an average night. That should be true in an elite matchup Saturday; L.A. has allowed the third-most points, fourth-most rebounds, and most assists to his native small forward spot in their past 15 games.

nF projects DiVincenzo for 20.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.4 assists in this one. That's over every single one of his props at FanDuel, so I'll take the combo should one of them spike well beyond another.

Cleveland Cavaliers at San Antonio Spurs

Spurs Team Total Under 108.5 Points (-104)

This might be the most urgent line to lock in quickly if you're with me.

The San Antonio Spurs are on a back-to-back, meaning it's no given that Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, or any other key San Antonio player is in the lineup tonight. This line should drop precipitously if any of their offensive creators sit.

Even if they don't, the Spurs are running into a buzzsaw in the form of the Cleveland Cavaliers' defense. The Cavs' 104.5 defensive rating is the best in the NBA over all teams' respective last 10 games, which is no surprise with Evan Mobley back in the fold.

San Antonio's young defense (119.9 rating in the same period) is always a risk to an under, so I prefer just targeting the under on their team total. numberFire has this set at 104.7 points before any potential injury-related drops.

Milwaukee Bucks at Dallas Mavericks

Over 246 (-110)
Khris Middleton Over 26.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-122)

This nightcap should be fireworks.

In all teams' respective last 10 games, the Dallas Mavericks' 126.3 defensive rating is dead you-know-what last, and their usually slow pace ranks 15th in the period. As the visitors, the Milwaukee Bucks are 3rd in pace, and Doc Rivers hasn't had a ton of time to correct the 117.9 defensive rating (10th-worst) in the same time period. These teams are over machines.

That's why numberFire's under-friendly model is sitting out this total entirely, expecting 246.5 points. I'll take the leap and snag the over with Dallas' defense currently in a state of "outlier-level bad".

If you're wondering if we can dig a prop out of the side facing them, you'd be correct. The Mavs have had significant issues defending wings, allowing the fifth-most points, most rebounds, and second-most assists to two guards over their last 15 games. Now that Khris Middleton is fully up to speed after averaging 29.6 minutes per game in January, he can absolute stuff the stat sheet in those columns.

numberFire has Middleton pegged for 16.3 points, 6.0 assists, and 5.2 rebounds in this high-scoring affair. Totaled at 27.5 PRA, we're a full point over his combo line.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.