NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 12/23/23

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Clippers

Clippers ML (+118)
James Harden Over 18.5 Points (-104)

Is this an NBA Finals preview in Los Angeles? It certainly could be.

With 63% of tickets and 66% of the handle backing the Boston Celtics at FanDuel today, I'm not sure many are giving the Los Angeles Clippers a chance to win at home, but they should get one. Comparing their current floor situations, these teams are very close.

Since booting P.J. Tucker from the rotation, the Clips have the fourth-best net rating in the NBA (+8.4). One of the teams ahead of them is Boston (+10.0), but the C's aren't at full strength today with Kristaps Porzingis (calf) out. Jayson Tatum (ankle) is also questionable, but even if he suits up, Boston's net rating drops 1.6 points with Porzingis off the floor this season.

Meanwhile, the Clippers are at full strength, are at home, and have given both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George a maintenance day this week. numberFire's model has L.A. 46.6% likely to win this game, which shows value against +120 now but would soar if Tatum is ruled out.

If L.A. gets the job done, expect a pretty monstrous showing from James Harden. Boston, despite its strong D, has a weak spot for point guards, ceding 26.6 points per game to them (third-most in the NBA). Harden has topped 19 points in four of the Clippers' five games this month decided by single digits. If this one stays tight, this line should produce tremendous value.

Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans

Under 224.0 (-110)

Believe it or not, the Houston Rockets and New Orleans Pelicans are two of the best defenses in the NBA at present.

Houston is sixth in defensive rating (112.6), and New Orleans is ninth (114.4). That's a far shout from where these two teams have been historically, which might be why both clubs have seen a majority of their games fall short of the projected total this season. The Rockets are 10-15-1 to the over this year, per FanDuel, and the Pelicans are 14-15 to it.

Of course, defense is just one component to an under. Pace factor is also crucial, but this one isn't screaming "above-average scoring" in that department, either. The Pels are ninth in pace, but the Rockets more than make up for it with the third-slowest pace in the league.

numberFire's model is also digging a wager here, expecting just 218.1 total points from this affair.

Denver Nuggets at Charlotte Hornets

Hornets +9.0 (-110)
Jamal Murray Under 21.5 Points (-106)

This is a number I haven't bet yet and might not until tip-off. This line was 8.0 points this morning; it's now 9.0. It might get even higher.

To no one's surprise, the public is backing the Denver Nuggets tonight with 80% of the tickets and 76% of handle at FanDuel Sportsbook on Denver. I'm surprised it's even that low. No one is rushing to the window to bet on the 7-19 Charlotte Hornets against the reigning champs, but that's what I'm here for.

The Nuggets falling short of expectations on the road this year wouldn't be anything new. They've got a pedestrian +0.5 net rating away from Ball Arena and sit 7-10 against the spread (ATS) when traveling. Charlotte is bad, but their -9.9 net rating at home implies a decent chance to cover. numberFire's model expects them to 56.1% of the time.

One of the ways they can cover is by limiting the Nuggets' second option, Jamal Murray. For all of their defensive woes, Charlotte allows the second-fewest points per game to opposing point guards (22.1). I'm also expecting Murray's road shooting (61.5 TS%) to regress closer to his home mark (55.2 TS%) as the sample widens.

nF's player projections have Murray amassing just 18.5 points in tonight's game at a median, leaving a boatload of wiggle room to his under.

Memphis Grizzlies at Atlanta Hawks

Over 238.0 (-110)
Dejounte Murray Over 10.5 Rebounds and Assists (+102)
Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 28.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-108)

I'm rarely one for a public over, but sportsbooks may not have caught up enough to the return of Ja Morant for the Memphis Grizzlies.

You'd expect an All-Star to help, but even I'm blown away by how impactful Morant has been since returning. The Grizzlies have a 123.1 offensive rating through two games with Morant, which would lead the NBA in a larger sample. Do I expect that to stick? No, but Memphis' 106.8 offensive rating overall is second-worst in the NBA. He's been a gigantic, hard-to-quanitfy boost.

Of course, if Memphis is undervalued, the Atlanta Hawks will usually do their part in an over. Atlanta combines the league's seventh-fastest pace with its fourth-best offensive rating (119.5).

With an over (finally) on deck, we can turn to props from this game, too. With Marcus Smart sidelined a majority of the year, the Grizzlies have struggled to defend guards in all area. Specifically, they've allowed the 11th-most rebounds and 4th-most assists per game to opposing two guards, so enter the stat-stuffing Dejounte Murray. Murray is projected for 11.1 boards and dimes in tonight's game, per numberFire.

On the other side, bigs have torched Atlanta. The Hawks have allowed the fifth-most points and seventh-most rebounds to opposing power forwards, so why not grab one of the league's best? nF has Jaren Jackson Jr. pegged for 28.4 points and boards tonight. I'll spring to his line when he's topped it in four of his last six contests -- including both with Morant.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Sacramento Kings

Under 233.5 (-110)

This nightcap isn't on today's main DFS slate, so if you're looking for a little action, I've got you.

This total might be a tinge too high for these two Western Conference contenders when you average their play styles out. Of course, 235 total points during their first meeting this year in Minnesota would send less-informed bettors to the over, but I -- and numberFire's model -- prefer the under.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are tough to score on. They've got a league-best 107.2 defensive rating. The Sacramento Kings (115.9) lag well behind, but overall, you might be surprised to learn these offenses really aren't elite. The two clubs are 17th and 12th, respectively, in offensive rating on the other end.

There's not spectacular pace in this one, either. The T-Wolves play at 12th-fastest pace, and despite similar personnel, the Kings are 17th. That's a small nugget that some bettors might not look toward, expecting the top-five squad in pace from a year ago given Sacramento's similar personnel.

Overall, nF has just 228.9 total points expected in this game from its median projection. I also agree to fade the prior result as the underdog's elite defense tightens its grip to avoid a lit beam on Saturday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.