NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 12/2/23
The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Orlando Magic at Brooklyn Nets
Nets -2.5 (-108)
It also helps that this is a spot where the Brooklyn Nets have been profitable all season. They're 8-2-1 against the spread (ATS) at home with a +3.0 net rating. That checks out for one of the league's youngest teams.
Similarly, Orlando is fairly young and hasn't been the same team away from Amway Center. They've got a -1.2 net rating on the road.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, 66% of the tickets and 62% of the handle are on the Magic to cover as a road underdog, but numberFire's model likes backing Brooklyn in a contrarian sense. It predicts the Nets cover the spread 62.6% of the time in this one.
Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks
Dejounte Murray Over 29.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-120)
Malik Beasley Over 12.5 Points (-111)
I'm not sure what to do with this whopping 252.5-point total, but we can pluck player props from it with points surely to be had. I'm stunned these two marks are so low.
Thanks to 45 points and 14 assists from Trae Young on Thursday, it might be understated how much Dejounte Murray is also contributing. Murray battled 10-for-21 shooting to still post 29 PRA against the San Antonio Spurs in that game, and the total (245.5) was significantly lower than this one.
numberFire's projections have Murray pegged for 31.1 combined PRA in this contest, and anecdotally, I can't get over the fact his line here is shorter than it was on Thursday. This is a buy-low spot for the Atlanta Hawks' guard if one ever existed.
On the other side, betting markets seemingly haven't caught up to the Milwaukee Bucks fully unleashing Malik Beasley into their full-time shooting guard spot. Beasley has logged 36 regulation minutes in three straight contests. Unsurprisingly in one of the league's best offenses, he's topped 14 points in all of them.
In this supreme scoring environment, Beasley should score plenty again. Even numberFire's projections are missing the boat on Beasley's new role (27.5 projected minutes), but at his per-minute rate for points in the model, it's expecting 16.0 points per 36 minutes for him, providing plenty of wiggle room.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks
Under 235.5 (-110)
Luka Doncic could be back tonight after missing Friday's game for the birth of his daughter, but now, Kyrie Irving says he tweaked his foot and could miss tonight's game. This two-headed monster needs both if last night's 94-point effort against a pitiful Memphis Grizzlies defense is any indication. Dallas also plays at the league's 19th-fastest pace, which really emphasizes efficiency for them to reach lofty totals like this one.
OKC has a league-best 104.5 defensive rating on the road, but they've been no slam dunk for unders because of their own pace ranking (sixth). A hobbling Mavs squad without their two best players could certainly change that equation, though.
numberFire's model already -- with Doncic and Irving scheduled to play -- sees this under winning out 62.3% of the time. This total will plummet the second either -- or both -- are ruled out, so I'd act very quickly.
Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz
Deandre Ayton Over 25.5 Points and Rebounds (-104)
Simone Fontecchio Over 12.5 Points (-102)
My impulse was to log Over 217.5 (-110) here, but these offenses in general have been wretched over the past 10 games. They're both bottom-six teams in offensive rating in that stretch. I'll stick to individuals.
Of them, it could be a massive night for Deandre Ayton of the Portland Trail Blazers. The Utah Jazz are allowing the sixth-most paint points per game (54.0), which is Ayton's primary (only?) area to score. With Robert Williams done for the year, he's topped 30 minutes in five of his last six games and is set to absorb most of the interior minutes tonight.
numberFire has Ayton projected for 17.6 points and 11.5 rebounds at a median in this one, and I'm expecting a massive double-double, as well. It's shocking that the "under" side of his PR prop is favored.
On the other side, the Jazz have various injuries tonight with the fresh one being Kelly Olynyk (shoulder) for this game. That all but locks Simone Fontecchio into a full-time role; he's already been starting and has topped 25 minutes in each of his past four games.
The small forward has posted 18.7 points per 36 minutes with Olynyk, Lauri Markkanen, and Jordan Clarkson off the floor. numberFire has him projected for 15.2 points tonight. In any capacity, this 12.5-point prop seems far too low.
Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings
Kings -5 (-106)
Domantas Sabonis Over 24.5 Points and Assists (-113)
Are you surprised that the Sacramento Kings are five-point favorites in this one? You shouldn't be.
The Kings enter with a two-day rest advantage over the embattled Denver Nuggets, who will have played five games in six days once tonight's contest is over. Sacramento, playing at the league's ninth-fastest pace, is a brutal team to draw in those circumstances. It's also no certainty Nikola Jokic plays tonight after sitting Monday with a back issue.
Denver also has been extremely vulnerable away from home with a -0.3 net rating. Yet, betting lines usually have the Nuggets as a prohibitive favorite in any circumstance, and bettors have taken notice that is not the case tonight. 73% of tickets at FanDuel are on the Nuggets to cover, but just 51% of the money lies on that side as sharps are backing Sacramento. We want to side with them in these types of spots that they notice and casual bettors don't.
As we saw with last night's Jusuf Nurkic explosion, Denver is weakest defensively inside -- especially with Aaron Gordon (heel) missing four straight. They're allowing the 15th-most points and 17th-most assists to centers as is, and that number only has grown without A.G.
With that the case, Domantas Sabonis is excellent to back in this capacity. I'm dodging a brutal rebounding assignment against Jokic, but Sabonis is still projected for 17.9 points and 7.7 assists in this one, which would sail over this prop. This line would balloon if Jokic is ruled out; I'd act quickly again here.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.