NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 12/16/23

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets

Under 232.5 (-110)

Without LaMelo Ball, the Charlotte Hornets just don't play incredibly fast at the moment. This elevated total seems too high.

Charlotte sports the league's 16th-ranked pace factor, sitting behind even the opposing Philadelphia 76ers (13th) in that regard. They've fallen short of 230 total game points in three of their last four games, and I prognosticate it's due to their frontcourt injuries, Mark Williams (back) and PJ Washington (shoulder). After a doubtful listing on Friday, it's unlikely either will play tonight, and the team has a measly 110.7 offensive rating with the less-skilled Nick Richards on the floor.

Of course, most would not be concerned about the Sixers' offense in this spot with that the case, but the Hornets' defense has actually been significantly better with Richards at the pivot. They've got a 120.3 defensive rating overall (second-worst in the NBA), but it's 115.6 with Richards on the floor.

At this total, numberFire's model expects the under to cash 74.3% of the time. It's only forecasting 219.4 total points in Buzz City this evening.

Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers

Jarrett Allen Over 26.5 Points and Rebounds (-102)

In a friendly matchup, Jarrett Allen's betting number stood out to me tonight for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Cleveland will be in a state of flux with Darius Garland (jaw) and Evan Mobley (knee) out several weeks, but this line may not have been bumped enough. In a limited sample of 109 minutes, Allen averages 12.5 points and 12.5 rebounds per 36 minutes with Garland and Mobley off the floor, but his true role still might be a question. In general, Allen and other Cavs should see an uptick in shots.

We'll see if J.A. can turn them into successful ones. The opposing Atlanta Hawks allow the 12th-most points and 9th-most rebounds to centers, and Allen's runway -- especially for boards -- should be significantly clearer next to Dean Wade than another seven-footer, Mobley.

numberFire has Allen projected for 16.8 points and 10.8 rebounds on Saturday -- good for 27.6 combined points and rebounds (PR). Even with those projections in mind, i'm expecting an even larger night on the glass.

Brooklyn Nets at Golden State Warriors

Stephen Curry 6+ Threes Made (+145)
Nicolas Claxton Over 11.5 Points (-113)

Though not the highest-totaled game of the day, specific positional matchups make this Brooklyn Nets-Golden State Warriors one a gold mine for prop bettors.

There is no team in the NBA that surrenders more three-pointers per game to point guards (3.94) than Brooklyn. Entering a date with Stephen Curry, good luck. You'll need it.

Of course, the best shooter in NBA history without much argument has been doing his thing in 2023-24. He's posted 12.0 attempts from deep per contest and made an exceptional amount of them (41.3%) -- all encompassed in a team-best 31.6% usage rate.

Surprisingly, Curry has hit this mark just once in December. With a league-best matchup on deck, expect a flurry of Curry.

On the other side, the Dubs surrender the fifth-most points per game to centers (25.2), so I'm not sure why Nicolas Claxton's prop is so low in this spot. Claxton has posted 16.7 points per 36 minutes in his last 12 games, but he's battled foul trouble in some of them. The lack of offensive force from Kevon Looney might help keep him in the game.

numberFire has Claxton projected for 12.8 points in 30.3 minutes. I'd agree that if he's on the court plenty, this prop is a fairly low bar to clear.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets

Under 237.0 (-110)

The push-pull mechanic of the Oklahoma City Thunder on totals can be frustrating, but their opponent will usually dictate the side to back. The Denver Nuggets are an under machine, so that's the direction we'll go.

15 of the Nuggets' 26 contests have fallen short of their point total, and it's because they're an extremely public team, and the public bets overs. It creates free value on a team that, otherwise, looks like an under juggernaut. They're 25th in pace factor with the league's 10th-best defensive rating (112.6).

OKC, as mentioned, can be a bit frustrating in that regard. They combine the league's sixth-fastest pace factor with its fifth-best defensive rating (110.6). It's no surprise they're a middle-of-the-road 13-9-1 to the over this season.

numberFire's model has this under cashing 66.7% of the time with a projected median point total of 227.8.

Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings

Jazz +9.5 (-108)

The Utah Jazz-Sacramento Kings clash has a boatload of injury news, but most of it should be a net positive for Utah compared to what they've been working with.

That's because Lauri Markkanen is off the injury report and set to play, and that's been a complete game-changer for the Notes. Utah has an improved -4.4 net rating with Markkanen on the floor, and it's -10.1 with the former All-Star sitting off the court. That's a huge discrepancy when, looking at these teams overall, the Kings really shouldn't be laying 9.5 points against anyone.

After a Cinderella season, Sactown has come back to Earth with a -0.2 net rating this year. One of last year's most prolific offenses is sporting just a 114.6 rating (14th in the NBA). I'm not sure they have the firepower to pull away so long as Utah has its franchise player. Plus, that situation would only get worse if De'Aaron Fox (shoulder) sits from his questionable listing.

I'd love to add Markkanen's points prop in this one. Sacramento allows the the second-most points per game to small forwards (24.2), but it's likely not available until shortly after we get official inactives from both sides. Without it, I'll still take the Jazz to cover at present.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.