NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 11/25/23

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets

Nets -6.0 (-110)
Mikal Bridges Over 2.5 Threes (+134)

This betting line is so confusing that it almost seems that the Miami Heat might be missing a key name in this one, but it's still a good spot for the Brooklyn Nets even if Miami is at relative full strength.

I just can't trust this Heat team, whose blowout of the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday was a stark difference from their previous six wins. Five of those came against teams with a bottom-10 net rating. Nonetheless, they're likely not too thankful for a third game in four days around the Thanksgiving holiday.

Brooklyn has been pretty stellar at home, going 5-1-1 against the spread (ATS) to this point. A weakened Miami club could easily drop this one and keep that trend rolling.

Miami's stout D isn't easy to target with player props, but they are surrendering the fourth-most threes per game (3.8) to the shooting guard spot, so Brooklyn's Mikal Bridges could easily cash a few triples in this one.

Bridges has made multiple threes in each of his last five games, and he's attempted 6.7 per game in November. This plus matchup could absolutely get him over the hump, and these odds (+134) for three to fall require a sub-one-unit bet to make one.

Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards

Dejounte Murray Over 30.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-125)
Jordan Poole Over 2.5 Threes (-120)

The 249.5-point total between the Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards should lead to some fireworks for player props, and both of these stood out in earnest.

I always hope to buy low on a player rather than high, and Atlanta's Dejounte Murray gave us the opportunity in his last game against the aforementioned Nets. He shot just 6-for-21 (28.6%) from the field against a stronger defense, but his increased aggressiveness is still a positive. He's taken at least 16 shots per game in his past five.

Therefore, as a usual contributor both on the glass (4.4 boards per game) and as a facilitator (5.6 assists per game), I have no idea how this mark is so low. numberFire's projections have Murray pegged for 32.2 combined points, assists, and rebounds.

On the other side, I'll always look to support a player getting crushed by the national media; we'll get great value on their line. Jordan Poole -- rightfully -- has been getting crushed, but this is a solid matchup for him to have a decent night at the office.

The Hawks surrender the most threes per game (4.0) to opposing two guards, and Poole certainly isn't shy about letting them fly (7.0 3PA per game). He's only topped this mark twice in his last seven games, yet it's favored to hit with almost certainly action exclusively on the other side, and the reason why is this high-scoring affair.

These guards appear to be the best value spots in tonight's marquee shootout.

New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz

Jazz +2.5 (-110)

The Utah Jazz have been a must-bet team at home this year.

They've covered five of their seven games on their floor with a +2.8 net rating compared to a 2-6 ATS record and -16.4 net rating (second-worst in the NBA) away from Salt Lake City. It's a split that's too obvious -- for one of the league's youngest teams -- to ignore.

Enter a perfect trap-game opponent: the New Orleans Pelicans. New Orleans just upset the Los Angeles Clippers last night, and similarly to the Heat, they've been handed a three-in-four schedule around Thanksgiving.

Of course, Zion Williamson will sit out this back-to-back situation per today's injury report, but this number is no freebie. The Jazz will sit both Jordan Clarkson (illness) and Lauri Markkanen (hamstring) for tonight's contest.

Even with the absences, I'm willing to back the trends given the Jazz's excellent depth. Keyonte George, Collin Sexton, and Kelly Olynyk can make up plenty of the offense missing from Utah's top-two scorers.

This line should continue to rise given the money trends, so waiting on it might be optimal above all.

Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Clippers

Clippers ML (+110)
Ivica Zubac Over 10.5 Points (+104)

When I can get value with a back-to-back situation, I'll take it. Public road sides? No. Home teams the public has totally abandoned? Yes.

That's the Clippers to a tee. They lost a close affair against the Pels one night ago, and their only wins of the James Harden era have come against the Houston Rockets (good) and the San Antonio Spurs (very bad). That's why you see 76% of the bets and 86% of the money behind the Dallas Mavericks in this spot.

Nonetheless, the Clips' net rating (+2.3) outweighs that of the Mavs (+2.0) to this stage. Dallas' 117.3 defensive rating (sixth-worst in the NBA) is still a major issue, and the Clippers need a softer matchup like that with just a 107.3 offensive rating to this point with Harden on the floor.

The Mavs have been especially weak against centers, allowing the sixth-most points per game (25.1) to the spot. With that the case, these odds on Ivica Zubac's prop -- even as he's losing high-leverage work to Daniel Theis -- might be too low. He's topped this mark in four of his last five games and has a modest 15.4% usage rate with Harden on the floor.

If the Clippers do end up getting it done, it's likely inside, so these two bets correlate extremely well together.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.