NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 10/28/23

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons

Under 215.5 (-110)

The Detroit Pistons are a young team, which is synonymous with a bad defense in NBA circles. They haven't played that way thus far.

Detroit's 99.5 defensive rating through two games is the fifth-best mark in the NBA, and they've suppressed point totals by playing at its 10th-slowest pace (76.0), too. It's a young team on the depth chart playing closer to the crew anchored by Ben Wallace back in the day.

Of course, the Chicago Bulls are no strangers to low-scoring games themselves. Chicago, a regular in the bottom 10 of pace metrics a year ago, is playing at the league's fifth-slowest pace to this point (71.5) with a decent 108.6 defensive rating. On Friday, they needed overtime to combine for 207 total points.

Both of these teams are on tired legs on the second stint of a back-to-back, so this shockingly low total is stunningly approrpriate. It opened at 219.0 and has been bet down to here, but numberFire's model projects just 209.8 total points at a median in this one.

Memphis Grizzlies at Washington Wizards

Marcus Smart Over 15.5 Points (-115)

With the Memphis Grizzlies on a back-to-back, I don't feel super inclined to target Over 227.5 (-110) and risk blowout and/or shooting buffoonery, but I also don't have many arguments against it on paper.

Instead, this prop seems catastrophically low for Marcus Smart in a game that -- almost undoubtedly -- will be a positive one offensively for the Grizz. In Wednesday's opener, the Washington Wizards produced the league's worst defensive rating (128.8) and its highest pace (113.0).

It's not like the Indiana Pacers are an offensive juggernaut compared to the Grizzlies, who finished 11th in offensive rating last year (114.7) compared to the Pacers' 21st-ranked mark (11.8).

Smart's scoring role with his new team is superb -- for now. With Ja Morant sidelined, he's had a 24.0% usage rate through two games. That's second among starters behind Desmond Bane (29.3%), whose points prop sits at a lofty 25.5 points entering this friendly matchup.

He's dropped at least 17 points in both starts thus far, and while his shooting percentage (54.8%) has been uncharacteristically excellent, this is also his easiest matchup compared to the tough Denver Nuggets and New Orleans Pelicans defenses. I expect him to flirt with 20 points again tonight.

Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers

Over 224.0 (-110)

Like the Wizards, we'll see if Wednesday's explosive matchup was actually just two of the league's worst defenses squaring off.

Indiana's 109.1 defensive rating grades out far better than Washington's, but their pace (never a pun intended with the club) was the shining star of that debut. They're obviously tied with Washington (113.0), but that was only confirmation of what we guessed after holding the league's third-highest pace (103.1) a year ago.

That's part of the reason I like the over here; the other aspect is that the Cleveland Cavaliers' defense just hasn't been special without Jarrett Allen (ankle), and he doesn't seem close to returning after missing Friday's contest. The Pacers' high-speed approach might have encountered trouble with him, but Cleveland's 77.0 pace and 107.8 defensive rating (13th in the NBA) both imply they'll get out and run a bit.

I wanted to get to this over before Darius Garland (hamstring) was confirmed in the lineup tonight. He played through the issue in the opener but sat the first leg of the back-to-back on Friday; I'm expecting him to return, and numberFire expects him to be a welcomed addition for an over. He's projected for 19.3 points.

Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors

Joel Embiid Over 39.5 Points and Rebounds (-102)

After a clumsy debut navigating Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo, I'm expecting a monstrous double-double from the reigning -- and still deserving, Nuggets fans -- league MVP.

Embiid goes from one of the toughest matchups for a center to one of the softest tonight against the Toronto Raptors. Toronto's 66.7% defensive rebounding rate is sixth-worst in the NBA, and they play at a quick enough pace to have surrendered the most overall boards per game to opponents (57.0) to this point in the young season. JoJo's seven boards in the opener bogged down this combo, but he'll be okay on the glass here.

From a scoring perspective, I'm not too worried, either. He had a 39.0% usage rate on Thursday, which was right around his usual lofty mark from 2022-23 when the Philadelphia 76ers were without James Harden (39.8%). He said he felt passive; I'd wholeheartedly disagree, but if it means we get an even larger volume of shots from him for this prop...that works, too.

If he's anywhere close to his true shooting percentage (TS%) from last year (65.5%) versus the opener (48.9%), Embiid can and will demolish this mark for points and rebounds.

Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns

Suns -5.5 (-112)

After last night's emotional, last-possession win against the Los Angeles Clippers, reality might set back in tonight for the Utah Jazz.

With a rest disadvantage, they'll be in "The Valley" to take on the Phoenix Suns, who are looking to wash Thursday's blown lead against the Los Angeles Lakers out of their mouth in the home opener.

They'll still likely be without both of their starting guards -- Bradley Beal and Devin Booker -- but Booker at least has the upside to play from a doubtful status. Nonetheless, Phoenix has escaped with a -0.5 net rating from its first two contests -- a mark that still towers over Utah's fifth-worst mark in the NBA (-6.8).

How did the Jazz escape with a win yesterday? Great question. They abused the Clippers' league-worst 61.7% defensive rebounding rate to now hold the league's best mark for offensive rebounds per game (16.5), but Phoenix (71.4%) has been a league average team on the glass, and with that the case, Utah won't have their best weapon to score.

numberFire's model expects Phoenix to cover this spread 59.3% of the time compared to the 52.7% implied odds at -112.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.