NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 1/20/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

San Antonio Spurs at Washington Wizards

Over 241.5 (-112)
Devin Vassell Over 26.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-106)
Tyus Jones Over 12.5 Points (-112)

Poor shooting is always a risk in a San Antonio Spurs or Washington Wizards game -- much less when they're paired together. Nonetheless, these two teams should be an "over" when they meet at a so-so total in the 240s more often that not.

If you want pace, this tilt has it. The Wiz play at the fastest pace factor in the NBA (105.4), and San Antonio plays at the fourth-fastest pace (103.2). Possessions will be no issue.

These defenses won't be, either. Washington's 120.9 defensive rating is second-worst in the NBA, and the Spurs -- despite adding a shot-blocking cyborg -- have the sixth-worst defensive rating (117.8). Again, the only drama here will be if these two bottom-11 eFG% teams find a way to shoot themselves to an under.

With that the case, let's dive into some props, starting with what's perhaps an overreaction to Victor Wembanyama's return for Devin Vassell. Vassell still has a 20.9% usage rate with Wemby on the floor in addition to 6.4 potential assists and 6.1 rebound chances per game. Plus, Washington allows the 11th-most points, 3rd-most boards, and most assists per game to opposing shooting guards. All in all, numberFire's model has Vassell projected for 27.2 total PRA on Saturday, clearing this prop with ease.

On the other side, Tyus Jones has reclaimed a full role for the Wizards at 29.3 minutes per game this month, and this is a great buy-low spot for him after a two-point outing on Thursday against the New York Knicks. His brother, Tre Jones, will be guarding him -- something that hasn't gone too well for San Antonio this season. The Spurs are allowing the most points per game to opposing point guards (28.1).

Tyus is projected for 13.2 points by numberFire, so it's easy to justify backing his narrative in this one.

Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets

Under 228 (-112)

The Philadelphia 76ers have hit the over in three straight games, but this environment tonight against the Charlotte Hornets screams "under".

For a total encroaching 230, these teams just don't play with much pace. Charlotte plays at the sixth-slowest pace in the league, which might still be a bit under the radar after a top-five pace a year ago. Philadelphia is 18th in pace, but they've shot the lights out with a 64.8 TS% in the past three contests.

I'm not sure that'll change in this one; Charlotte's 121.1 defensive rating is worst in the NBA. However, it's the Hornets that should struggle to score as 10.5-point underdogs against Philly's top-five defensive rating (111.6).

Wrapping it all together, numberFire believes this contest features 218.3 total points at a median, and it's giving the under a 67.5% chance to cash. Don't buy Philadelphia's offensive surge at a premium.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks

Donovan Mitchell 4+ Made Threes (-135)

With injury news galore in this one, it was tough to find an angle, but "Spida" figures to shine.

Donovan Mitchell is on a heater from deep. He's made at least four triples in six of his seven January contests. The only exception was an odd, 1-for-10 effort against the Spurs. He's taken 9.4 per game this month, making them at a reasonable 39.4% clip from him.

This matchup figures to only aid his cause tonight. The Atlanta Hawks allow the 13th-most three-point attempts per game (35.2), and specifically to shooting guards, they're allowing the fifth-most makes per game (3.6).

The Cleveland Cavaliers' franchise cornerstone is projected for 3.7 triples in this one by numberFire, which would translate to -233 odds to make at least four of them. Even with juice to drink, we can snag Mitchell's prop for treys on Saturday.

Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets

Rockets -2 (-110)
Jabari Smith Over 13.5 Points (-125)

Despite the fact the Utah Jazz have won six of their last seven, the Houston Rockets are appropriately favored tonight.

Houston's +0.4 net rating still handily clears Utah's (-1.7) in a season-long sample, and tonight's setting in Houston is crucial. As a young team, the Rockets have a +7.5 net rating at home, and the Jazz's net rating plummets to -10.7 away from the altitude and one of the NBA's best home court advantages. It's no surprise Utah's run has come through a six-game homestand.

numberFire -- never fooled by recent surges -- still projects Houston to win this one 67.6% of the time. A one-basket margin is easy to pay.

In a potential Houston win, don't be surprised if Jabari Smith contributes a bit more than usual in a great positional matchup. Utah allows the fifth-most points per game to power forwards (25.8) in the NBA. Smith has scuffled to the tune of 42.9% shooting in January, but his 10.6 shots and 4.3 three-point attempts per game are still plenty of scoring volume to encroach 15 points.

nF also believes in Jabari, pegging him at 14.2 projected points in tonight's contest. I'll pay a tiny bit of juice to back him when the Jazz routinely struggle to defend fours while sitting in the top half of the league in PPG allowed to point guards and centers. It can't all be on Fred VanVleet and Alperen Sengun tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.