NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 1/13/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Houston Rockets at Boston Celtics

Under 227.0 (-108)

I don't know if "stunned" is the right word for this 16-point spread when the Boston Celtics are one of the most talented regular season teams I've ever seen, but the Houston Rockets -- sporting a +2.0 net rating overall -- won't catch this many points again the rest of the season.

Nonetheless, I'll avoid a side given the odd line and look toward the under with both of these teams well-equipped for one. Defense is the name of the game here.

Boston has a 113.3 defensive rating (fourth-best in the NBA), and Houston sports a nearly identical mark (113.4). Pace factor isn't an issue here, either. The C's are tied for the 12th-fastest team in the league, and the Rockets have the sixth-slowest factor in basketball (99.3).

numberFire's model isn't keen on points here. It's projecting just 216.1 median points in this game, and a wide spread like this will only lead to less efficient reserves and a glacial pace late in the game.

Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks

Over 250.5 (-112)
Trae Young Over 3.5 Three-Pointers (+126)
Daniel Gafford Over 19.5 Points and Rebounds (-122)

The Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks have both been regulars in high-totaled affairs this season. 250.5 isn't a bad number when matching them up.

Both of these clubs play fast and play very little defense. Washington leads the NBA in pace factor (105.5), and the Hawks are eighth in that department (102.8). The Wiz also sport a 121.6 defensive rating, which is worst in the NBA. Atlanta's (120.4) isn't much better.

Washington has seen 54.1% of their games this year hit the "over" despite several blowouts, and Atlanta's over rate is 59.5%. These are two tremendous candidates, yet this line doesn't seem to be getting much love from the public that typically blindly bets overs.

If we're expecting points, I could have picked out a dozen props in this one, but these two stood out above the rest.

I'm actually fading numberFire's projections a bit to take Trae Young's triple count. It's projecting him for just 3.1 makes, which is in the ballpark but not quite what you'd hope for. He's just badly due; Young met or eclipsed four threes 8 times in 13 December contests but has yet to hit the mark in January due to uncharacteristically poor efficiency (20.9%). The Wizards' shoddy D should help cure those ailments.

On the other side, Atlanta is allowing the fifth-most points and eighth-most rebounds per game to centers, and Daniel Gafford's role has stabilized at the right time to take advantage of them. He's posted 27.6 minutes per game in January. In 28.0 projected minutes on Saturday, numberFire's model expects Gafford to accrue 13.2 points and 8.1 rebounds in this sublime matchup, leaving plenty of wiggle room compared to this sub-20 PR line.

Orlando Magic at Oklahoma City Thunder

Under 231.5 (-108)
Jalen Williams Under 22.5 Points and Assists (-120)

The Orlando Magic have been one of the league's best "under" teams all year, and they're on the second leg of a back-to-back. That'll only help the case for another.

55.3% of Orlando's tilts have fallen short of their projected point total, and that's largely due to the league's third-best defensive rating (111.3) that is paired with its 16th-ranked pace factor. The Magic played the Miami Heat to just 195 total points yesterday.

The Oklahoma City Thunder will play host to them, and there's enough defense (111.3 rating) to believe OKC can help contribute to this case. The Thunder's fifth-best pace factor is the lone concern, but an 11.0-point spread in their favor encourages that this game might not be too tight late with Oklahoma City bleeding clock.

nF is digging the under in this one, projecting it to cash 64.1% of the time. With fewer points will come fewer points and assists for all, and Jalen Williams has a really difficult positional matchup that might make him suffer the consequences more than most.

Orlando is allowing the fourth-fewest points and fifth-fewest assists to combo wings classified as a shooting guard. JDub is projected for just 20.1 points and dimes in Saturday's game by numberFire; that's a no-brainer to target when we're bearish on the scoring environment already.

Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz

Taurean Prince Over 10.5 Points (-118)

Your guess is as good as mine who wins this duel in Salt Lake City, but I spotted this line for Los Angeles Lakers forward Taurean Prince this evening.

Of course, locking in an "other" Laker now is probably wise with LeBron James and Anthony Davis listed on the injury report. The former would be the one most unlikely to play, but points props will rise across the board should an L.A. stud sit.

Even if they both play, Prince is in a great spot here. The Utah Jazz allow the fourth-most points per game (26.2) to Prince's power forward spot. He's also reached double-digit points in four straight games -- some in much more difficult matchups.

numberFire has Prince projected for 12.1 points on Saturday; I'd snag this while it's still sitting below 11.5.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.