NASCAR

NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: United Rentals 300

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes
NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: United Rentals 300

Dominance on superspeedways is hard to achieve.

Not only can the most skilled driver get caught up in a wreck at any time, but even if you do make the finish, it's a crapshoot to see who will cross the line first.

Austin Hill in the Xfinity Series is the exception.

Hill has run 11 superspeedway races since joining the Xfinity Series full-time in 2022. He has won four of those races, and he was runner-up in another. That level of dominance on this track type is unheard of.

Hill is back for another season in Xfinity as they kick off their season on Saturday in Daytona. So, the question is whether anybody can knock him off his throne.

Here's what my model's win simulations say about that prior to practice and qualifying. As a note, only the top 38 drivers in my model were included in the sims (as only 38 drivers make the show), so David Starr, Patrick Emerling, Dawson Cram, Caesar Bacarella, Stanton Barrett, and Natalie Decker were omitted.

Driver
Sim Win
Sim Podium
Sim Top 5
Austin Hill11.2%30.5%45.6%
Daniel Suarez8.7%25.3%39.2%
A.J. Allmendinger7.0%18.8%30.6%
Sheldon Creed6.2%18.2%28.0%
John Hunter Nemechek5.6%16.2%26.6%
Riley Herbst5.3%15.2%25.2%
Justin Allgaier5.0%14.7%24.7%
View Full Table

Yes, the name near the bottom is that Frankie Muniz. The model has his median finish as 24th, so Frankie in the middle of the pack would be a big win in his Xfinity debut.

As for Hill, the model loves him and makes him the clear favorite. I just can't get him close to his implied marks in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds (22.2% at +350). I respect Hill's talent, but at a spot this volatile, I agree with the sims in being below market at that number.

It does open up value elsewhere. My preferred outlet is Daniel Suarez (+1600).

Suarez is technically running this race for SS-Green Light Racing, which generally has poor equipment. But according to FOX Sports' Bob Pockrass, this car was prepared by Kaulig Racing, which fields very respectable cars in this series. I believe that discrepancy is why my model is so far above market on Suarez.

Suarez used to really struggle on superspeedways, but the past two years in Cup have been much better for him. He has 7 top-10s in 12 races, including a runner-up in Atlanta last year. There's risk here if the car isn't fully a Kaulig operation, but I'm fully on board with that risk given the upside of an established Cup driver in good equipment.

As for others, the model is at least a percentage point above the implied odds on Riley Herbst (+2200) and Ryan Sieg (+5000). Between the two, I'd lean toward Herbst as he's in more competitive equipment, giving him bigger upside. Sieg would likely be better suited for a top-five market, where the model would put his break-even odds at +481.

As for Herbst, he has a decently strong record on pack tracks in the Xfinity Series. He also had a pair of top-10s in Cup last year on a limited schedule, including one in the Daytona 500. He made big strides last year and finally got his first win in the fall. With the model putting his win odds at 5.3%, up from 4.3% implied, this isn't a bad spot to buy in again.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.