NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Picks: Tennessee Lottery 250

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Picks: Tennessee Lottery 250

Typically, when NASCAR Cup Series drivers dip down to the Xfinity Series, they're going to be the favorites to win.

Those drivers have the talent necessary to earn a ride in the sport's top series, and they're often in quality equipment, as well. That's going to be hard to beat.

This week in Nashville, a whopping five Cup regulars are in the field. And yet, it's an Xfinity veteran who is the favorite, according to my model.

Here's what my sims have for the field prior to practice and qualifying for the Tennessee Lottery 250.

Top 5
Justin Allgaier15.4%39.1%55.2%
Ty Gibbs12.7%34.3%50.4%
John Hunter Nemechek9.8%29.0%44.4%
Cole Custer8.6%24.6%39.1%
Austin Hill8.2%23.5%38.4%
Chandler Smith6.7%20.4%33.6%
Tyler Reddick6.0%18.2%30.5%
View Full Table

With Nashville being a concrete track, it shouldn't be a surprise to see Justin Allgaier -- King Kongcrete himself -- at the top.

Allgaier won this race in 2022, one of five wins for him across Nashville, Bristol, and Dover, the three regular concrete tracks on the schedule. Even in a tough field, I'm not going to fight the model having him on top.

Despite the model's optimism, though, Allgaier isn't a betting value this week. He's +400 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds, meaning his 20.0% implied odds are above his mark of 15.4% in the sims. Thus, we'll have to hope Allgaier either lengthens before Saturday or takes a slight reprieve from his concrete dominance.

Instead, the standout best value in the field is a different Xfinity regular: Austin Hill (+2000).

Hill has never won on concrete, but he does have a pair of top-five average running positions in three races at Dover, one of which was this spring. He also finished fourth in this race last year despite an early spin that put him down a lap.

In addition to Dover, Hill had a top-four average running position in Vegas and Darlington earlier this year, both of which are intermediate tracks. He's consistently in the hunt, and that matters.

My model has Hill at 8.2% to win, up from 4.8% implied. It's possible that's too high. But with Hill's form at similar tracks, I do agree that he's the best target in the field.

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Which driver stands out to you Saturday in Nashville? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.