NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: Verizon 200 at the Brickyard

If you are looking for an action-packed way to consume sports on the weekend, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America.

NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, though!

numberFire is always your home for fantasy NASCAR advice. In addition to this helper, Jim Sannes takes a look at the best bets of the weekend in his betting guide.

With all of this in mind, let's preview the Verizon 200 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway from the perspective of playing daily fantasy NASCAR on FanDuel.

Weekend Primer

As NASCAR's stretch toward the playoffs heats up, the races should be pretty wild. We've got two road courses and a drafting oval at Daytona to round out the regular season, and it starts this weekend at Indianapolis.

NASCAR's top-two series pivoted to the road course layout at IMS in 2021 after the oval continued to disappoint, and the 2.54-mile circuit absolutely hasn't. It's produced two wild, accident-filled shows.

We should have a good idea of who is going to run up front at the fairly standard road course with normal tire wear. That'll only be affirmed by Saturday's practice sessions, but keep in mind that this track is lengthy. The one-lap samples we'll get in time trials could result in faster cars toward the back if they make a mistake.

As a final note, there could be racing in the rain with Goodyear set to bring a wet-weather tire. That certainly changed the outcome at Chicago.

General Lineup Strategy

There are only 82 laps (and 8.2 FanDuel points) available for laps led in this race, so it mirrors a familiar pattern on these types of layouts. We want fast cars to finish well, but the actual laps led that accompany them aren't necessarily worth selling out for.

Therefore, we've always got a bit of a lean toward the fastest cars we can find as far back as possible, but starting five cars inside the top 10 starters could absolutely be viable because they're the best cars and teams. The pool of drivers that can truly win on a road course is much smaller than any other type of track.

Track position could be key, but at road circuits where you can pit without getting lapped, the points picture will impact the final results of the race for DFS.

Drivers on the playoff cutline like Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Bubba Wallace, Ty Gibbs, Michael McDowell, Daniel Suarez, A.J. Allmendinger, and Alex Bowman will be prioritizing points at the end of the first two stages over positioning themselves for the win. They need points above all. That'll hurt their position on track for the final stage, and I've slightly bumped all down as a result.

We saw multiple drivers with the best cars in Chicago -- like Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick -- crash from the top 10. There is a certain amount of variance at road courses that can happen, but personally, it's not worth avoiding or being underweight on the fastest cars in the field just because they're starting up front.

Driver Rankings

Below are my pre-qualifying rankings for each driver based on equipment, track history, recent form, and overall talent level -- in that order. Only drivers with a win probability above 0% in Jim Sannes' win simulations or a top-20 finish this season were included.

MLT Rank is the driver's weighted average median lap time ranking at the relevant sample of similar race tracks to this weekend as a great indicator of overall speed. The prior races in the sample (with weight percentage) this week are:

• 2023 Austin (Spring) - 33.3%
• 2023 Sonoma (Spring) - 33.3%
• 2023 Chicago Street Course (Spring) - 33.3%

For dominator viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale to potentially lead laps and win the race if they start upfront. A "10" is among the favorites to win the race, and a "0" has no realistic chance of leading the race at any point.

For flex play viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale of potentially finishing inside the top 15 spots. These drivers will be better daily fantasy plays the further back in the field they start for optimal place-differential points.

Game theory will play a massive role in this week's contests loaded with top contenders.

I still have a hard time not placing Tyler Reddick ($13,000) at the top despite crashing out of an odd, wet event in Chicago. Reddick has won three of the last six road course races, including last year's event at Indianapolis. He led a race-high 38 laps, too.

Out of desperation, Chase Elliott ($13,500) stood out for the runner-up spot. Hendrick Motorsports has likely put forth a whale of an effort to get the former champion to victory lane and into the playoffs, and with the right equipment, we know Elliott can deliver. He has the best average finish on road courses since the start of 2020 (6.5) and has won four races in that span.

The 2021 winner here, A.J. Allmendinger ($10,500), is right on the playoff cutline with a decent 2023 across all tracks, but road courses are where Dinger's bread is buttered. Allmendinger has won 11 times in the Xfinity Series on road courses to earn this full-time gig. He's got the second-fastest median lap time blend on road courses this season, too.

Once again, I'll be concerningly skeptical of Martin Truex, Jr. ($14,000) entering the weekend, and he's shut me up with the fastest car in practice each of the past two weeks. Truex has the fastest median lap time average of any driver on a road course this season, but his dominant Sonoma effort is doing the bulk of that heavy lifting. He was out of the top-eight spots at the two other races. His best finish here is 15th.

Kyle Larson ($12,000) has won four road-course events since the start of 2021, so he's here by default despite not flashing race-winning speed yet on them in 2023. If he's slow in practice, I might truly begin to bail on his recent form. Christopher Bell ($12,500) went through a similar trend last year, but he's really started to show improvement as Toyota has across the board, dominating at Chicago before one mistake into a tire barrier.

Kyle Busch ($11,500) has a pair of podium finishes at road courses this year, benefitting from RCR's alliance with Trackhouse Racing. He's another road ringer to consider, and Michael McDowell ($8,500) fits that same mold. Quietly, McDowell has a top-10 finish in six of NASCAR's last eight road-course events.

Of course, diehard NASCAR fans are wondering how I went so long without talking about Shane Van Gisbergen ($11,000), the Australian Supercars champ that won in Chicago and returns this week. SVG deserves a lot of credit for such a great run, and he'll still be driving the elite Trackhouse Racing equipment in this event, but the reason he won (and is back) is largely due to Bell and Reddick crashing out of the event. They comfortably outran him before those accidents.

A repeat effort wouldn't be totally unprecedented; Marcos Ambrose became a two-time Cup Series winner on road courses from down under. I'd call him a "contender" rather than a "favorite" in a normal, non-rain-impacted event this weekend, which places him in the same tier as teammates Daniel Suarez ($9,000) and Ross Chastain ($8,000), who won on road courses in 2021 themselves.

Oddly, Chris Buescher ($10,000) was a road-course ringer to target in years past, but now coming off back-to-back oval wins, he comes with a steep salary. You can't write him off with elite form, though; he's posted seven straight top-10 finishes on left-and-right-handers.

In terms of value plays, Ford has been down on speed at road courses this season, so it's hard to see a dart at Joey Logano ($7,500) or Ryan Blaney ($7,000) short of some life in practice. Their teammate, Austin Cindric ($7,200), also has won in the Xfinity Series here and finished second last year. The drivers are good, but their equipment has sold them short this season.

Toyota's leap has Ty Gibbs ($6,800) firmly in the mix. He's got a pair of top-10 finishes on road courses this season already. Alex Bowman ($6,500) also comes with a supremely low salary in team equipment to Larson and Elliott; he's got the ninth-best average median lap time on road courses this year.

Like SVG, other big teams are bringing high-profile road racers to elite equipment that could also make a quick splash. Brodie Kostecki ($7,800) and Kamui Kobayashi ($5,200) are teammates of frontrunners we've discussed thus far, so if his marquee run taught us anything, it's to not ignore them if they pop with really solid practice times.

Other value options with top-20 median lap time average rankings this year include Brad Keselowski ($6,200), Kevin Harvick ($6,000), Austin Dillon ($5,000), Ryan Preece ($4,500), and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($3,000).

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.