NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: Bank of America ROVAL 400

If you are looking for an action-packed way to consume sports on the weekend, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America.

NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, though!

FanDuel Research is always your home for fantasy NASCAR advice. In addition to this helper, Jim Sannes takes a look at the best bets of the weekend in his betting guide.

With all of this in mind, let's preview this weekend's Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway from the perspective of playing daily fantasy NASCAR on FanDuel.

Weekend Primer

Kudos to NASCAR for evolving on the spot and not staying stuck to a bad decision.

Road courses in 2023 have produced some of the worst NASCAR races I've ever seen. We've seen virtually no green-flag passing and minimal incidents with cars so spaced out that the racing looks like Formula 1 in stock cars. After the disastrous, inactive races at Indianapolis and Watkins Glen, they've added cautions at the end of each stage back into the fold.

At the very least, that'll shuffle the field at times and provide opportunities for drivers who pit with a flat tire or issue to catch up and not be stuck outside the top 20 for the entire race.

This is the big news of the weekend when we know what we're largely getting from Charlotte's ROVAL configuration in its final expected use. In 2018, CMS turned its 1.5-mile oval into a 2.28-mile road course, and the fall race has used the circuit since that debut. It's a standard, fast road course similar to the one used at Daytona in 2020 and 2021.

We've seen five road-course events in 2023 already, so we do have a solid idea of which drivers should contend for the win.

General Lineup Strategy

The cautions returning at the end of each stage dramatically shifts our strategy here.

Without them, stacking the front of the field has been an ideal strategy all season. Amazingly, of the 50 top-10 finishers on road courses this year, 39 of them started inside the top 15. Most efforts to target drivers toward the back in daily fantasy have been thwarted without cautions to catch the poor qualifiers back up to the leaders.

This was a massive shift from our old road-course strategy. Because there are only 109 laps (and 10.9 FanDuel points for laps led) in a race like this one and cautions would jumble the field, prioritizing lap leaders wasn't really necessary. We wanted fast cars and top finishers, but we wanted them starting as far back as possible to collect 0.5 FanDuel points for each position they gained on track.

This race is the final one in the Round of 12 in NASCAR's playoffs, so some drivers will intentionally grab points at the end of each stage, setting them up for a worse starting spot to begin the next. Their eyes will be on points collection versus the best finishing position, so we'll have to bump these drivers on the cutline down a bit:

• Christopher Bell (+22 points to the playoff cutline)
• Chris Buescher (+19)
• Martin Truex Jr. (+17)
• Kyle Larson (+15)
• Brad Keselowski (+2)
• Tyler Reddick (-2)
• Ross Chastain (-9)
• Bubba Wallace (-9)

Driver Rankings

Below are my pre-qualifying rankings for each driver based on equipment, track history, recent form, and overall talent level -- in that order. Only drivers with a win probability above 0% in Jim Sannes' win simulations or a top-20 finish this season were included.

MLT Rank, the driver's weighted average median lap time ranking at the relevant sample of similar racetracks to this weekend, is a great indicator of overall speed. The prior races in the sample (with weight percentage) this week are:

• 2023 Watkins Glen (Fall) - 40.0%
• 2023 Indianapolis (Fall) - 20.0%
• 2023 Austin (Spring) - 20.0%
• 2023 Sonoma (Spring) - 10.0%
• 2023 Chicago Street Course (Fall) - 10.0%

For dominator viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale to potentially lead laps and win the race if they start upfront. A "10" is among the favorites to win the race, and a "0" has no realistic chance of leading the race at any point.

For flex play viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale of potentially finishing inside the top 15 spots. These drivers will be better daily fantasy plays the further back in the field they start for optimal place-differential points.

Even despite being on the cutline, Tyler Reddick ($13,000) appears to have the best resumé to contend for the win, so I'm keeping him in top spot.

Reddick tops Jim Sannes' win simulations (11.4%), and a win on a road course in 2023 (COTA in Austin) doesn't exactly refute that point. Except for a crash at the street course in Chicago, Reddick has finished eighth or better in every road-course event dating back to July 2022.

After what we saw at Indianapolis and Watkins Glen, Michael McDowell ($12,000) has the most consistent road course record this year behind him. He won at Indy and had the fifth-fastest median lap time at Watkins Glen before a mechanical issue. I'd be shocked if he didn't make a run toward the front for the last time in 2023, and he's not racing for points.

William Byron ($13,500) is also playing with house money after a win at Texas two weeks ago, and some might argue for him above both Reddick and McDowell. I'm just concerned his Watkins Glen win was a flash in the pan when he had a median lap time outside the top 10 at three of the five road course races this season. He still grades out well with the Glen -- extremely fast for a road course -- as the best 2023 comparison for this track.

For multiple years, Chase Elliott ($14,000) and Kyle Larson ($12,500) were the kings of these configurations, but they're winless on left-and-right-handers this season. It's not even their finishes that are a concern; their once-dominant speed ranked 15th and 8th, respectively, at Watkins Glen. I'm not sure either is worth their projected popularity -- especially with Larson collecting points at the stage breaks.

It was pretty shocking to see A.J. Allmendinger ($11,500) at the top of median lap blend for road courses because he's led just two total laps on them this year, but he's a "buy-low" candidate. He's held a top-10 median time at every road course with just one top-10 finish to show for it. That was fourth at the Glen -- again, a great comparison for this layout.

Last year's ROVAL winner was Christopher Bell ($9,500), so we know he can get it done at this track if his fourth-ranked median blend means he shows up with speed to win this weekend. Bell, Chris Buescher ($9,000) and Ty Gibbs ($8,000) are where my first tier ends; Gibbs had the fastest median time at the Glen last month.

I'm not quite sold on Denny Hamlin ($10,500) entering the weekend on these formats. He used the pole position and clean air to run toward the front at Watkins Glen, but Hamlin has had a median lap time outside the top 25 in three of the five road course races this year. Speed in practice and a good starting spot will be paramount for him.

Similarly, Martin Truex Jr. ($11,000) scored a top-10 finish at both Sonoma and Watkins Glen, the only two road courses that have been on the schedule since his rookie year in 2007. He's struggled at some of the newer layouts, including back-to-back races at the Charlotte ROVAL finishing outside the top 15.

Trackhouse Racing has been a staple in road races and won one this year with Shane Van Gisbergen (not in this field), so the value salaries on Ross Chastain ($8,500) and Daniel Suarez ($8,200) are intriguing. With that said, Chastain has the exact profile of a "good" car that will have the opportunity to compile a lot of stage points by sacrificing his finishing position if he chooses to do so. He's a bit dicey.

I never thought I'd clamor to get to Austin Dillon ($4,800) on a road course, but Dillon's 14th-best median blend is quite the shocker, and he's actually underperformed his speed recently with incidents at Indianapolis and Watkins Glen. I still would trust a better road-racing background like Austin Cindric ($6,800) or Chase Briscoe ($6,500) if they show speed in practice.

Of course, practice times should be valued when there isn't an apples-to-apples comparison for any individual road course. They're not very alike other than speed values. Others I'm interested in if they have a nice practice session are Alex Bowman ($7,500), Joey Logano ($7,200), Erik Jones ($6,000), Justin Haley ($5,800), and Ryan Preece ($5,000).

As I write this, there are two drivers that I know will be omitted from my driver pool. Brad Keselowski ($6,200) and Bubba Wallace ($5,500) aren't strong road racers, so they'll almost certainly try to accumulate stage points and prey on mistakes or issues from others to advance to the Round of 8. I don't see the upside with either when they're unlikely to make significant ground back through the field after they do so.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.