Monday Night Football Preview: Can the Jets Prevail As the Home Underdogs?

The Los Angeles Chargers (3-4) will visit the New York Jets (4-3) for Week 9's edition of Monday Night Football.

This will be the Jets' third primetime game this season, but no one could have anticipated seeing Zach Wilson under the lights this often. After Aaron Rodgers went down in Week 1 with a torn Achilles, the Jets have been stuck with Wilson as their signal caller, but all is not lost.

Despite the injury that put a major damper on their season, Gang Green has handled it in stride. They've won three straight games and will look to carry that mojo into tonight, where a W would place them atop the AFC Wild Card standings.

Not only do they boast a winning record and sit above the once-feared Buffalo Bills in the AFC East standings, but they've done so in the face of some pretty fierce competition. The Jets have played three teams that placed in the top six of numberFire's nERD-based power rankings entering this week: the Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, and Kansas City Chiefs. They walked away from these games with a pair of wins and fell to Kansas City by a mere three points.

The Chargers, meanwhile, have been all over the place this season. Despite having a losing record, they have a positive point differential (+6). The same can be said for only one other team, the Green Bay Packers (3-5; +1).

Three out of four losses have come at the hands of a team ranked in the top six of numberFire's power rankings (the Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, and Miami Dolphins), so while they are losing games against great teams, their inability to keep up with the NFL big dogs does no favors to their championship hopes.

Even still, the market has some faith in the Bolts, at least in comparison to the Jets. The Chargers tout +184 playoff odds, while a Jets postseason nod stands at +225.

Tonight's game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET and can be watched on ABC and ESPN.

Chargers at Jets Week 9 Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

• Spread: Chargers -3.5 (-105)
• Total: 39.5
• Moneyline:
  • Chargers: -178
  • Jets: +148

Chargers at Jets Week 9 Matchup Analysis

This matchup is perfectly good -- or bad -- depending on how you look at it. The Jets have a terrible offense (29th ranked) and will be facing a terrible Chargers defense (29th). The Chargers have a stellar offense (6th) and will be facing a stellar Jets D (9th).

Let's start with the Jets D, as that's what has been winning New York their games as of late. They've only sacrificed 24 points across their last two games (including a matchup against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles), which has allowed the team to win both despite failing to score more than 20 points in either.

New York's defense in the passing game is particularly lethal. They are allowing 184.4 passing yards per game (fifth-fewest going into Week 9) and let up just 1.1 passing touchdowns per game (tied for eighth-fewest).

This has paved the way for the Jets to give up 18.4 points per game (sixth-fewest), although their rush defense can be pretty vulnerable. They sacrifice 144.9 rush yards per game (second-most), but their rush defense does rank 19th when adjusted for competition, proving that they may fare a bit better in this regard than the yardage allowed indicates.

Tonight, their D will have to show up against Justin Herbert and the Chargers, who are scoring 24.9 points per game (ninth-most). Herbert has been dealing with a thumb injury and has been wearing a fairly cumbersome wrap on said finger, but that didn't stop him from throwing for 298 yards and three touchdowns in last week's win against the Chicago Bears.

Herbert will be a bit short-staffed tonight in terms of offensive targets. Mike Williams has been out for over a month now after tearing his ACL, and Josh Palmer, who took on some of the receiving workload in Williams' absence, is out tonight with a knee injury.

Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler -- the two key aspects of the Bolts' offense -- are good to go, while Gerald Everett will return after being a no-show in Week 8 with a hip injury. We'll see if Herbert, who ranks fifth in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP), can be the one to exploit the Jets' passing defense.

But either way, I think Ekeler is primed for an outburst tonight. While he's been muted in the rushing game since returning from injury in Week 6, he should see ample opportunity to get things going on the ground against a defense whose weak spot lies in the rush game.

The Jets' offense has been pretty reliant on the ground as of late. This might have to change tonight, as the Chargers give up only 93.4 rush yards per game (sixth-fewest). Zach Wilson has the second-worst Passing NEP among all starting QBs, but perhaps he could see improvements to his numbers against a defense that is giving up more passing yards than any other team in the league (297.4).

Overall, I prefer Herbert's chances to succeed against a difficult defense over Wilson's chances to exploit a weak one, but each team has played in only two games that were decided by more than a touchdown, so we could see this one come down to the wire.

Chargers vs. Jets Prop Bets

Austin Ekeler Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

After exploding in Week 1 with 117 rush yards, Ekeler has yet to do major damage on the ground in his three games since returning from an ankle injury, but that all changes tonight.

The Jets are allowing the second-most rush yards per game (144.9), while Ekeler's three previous opponents fared much better in this regard (Bears allow 79.7 rush yards per game; Cowboys allow 108.9; Chiefs allow 112.2).

Given that the Jets' passing defense could give Herbert some trouble, and the absence of Palmer makes the passing game a bit less appealing, we should see Ekeler's rushing usage increase, even though he's been used as a duel-receiving threat.

numberFire's model anticipates Ekeler to see 60.24 yards on the ground tonight.

Breece Hall Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Breece Hall has been a monster in the receiving game as of late, combining for 130 yards (54 and 76) over his last two outings. Though he's typically more suited to explode in the rush game, the Chargers are giving up a mere 74.86 yards to running backs in this split, while they give up a whopping 54.86 receiving yards to running backs per game (second-most).

Hall touts a 20.9% target share over his last two games (second to only Garrett Wilson) and should play a major role in exploiting the Bolts' 30th-ranked pass defense.

I expect the game plan to line up in Hall's favor tonight, particularly on the receiving end.

numberFire forecasts Hall to reel in 24.96 receiving yards against the Chargers, which puts the over on this prop in a decent spot.

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