MLB Win Total Betting: Can the Orioles Continue to Excel in 2024?

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere@ZackBussiere
MLB Win Total Betting: Can the Orioles Continue to Excel in 2024?

The Baltimore Orioles are coming off a season in which they drastically exceeded their regular season expectations, winning the AL East with a 101-61 record, and then fell drastically short of their postseason expectations -- getting swept by the Texas Rangers in the ALDS.

After winning their first division title since 2014, the Orioles have finally completed a near decade-long rebuild that saw them finish no better than fourth in each of the previous six seasons. Now the question is, can they stay at the top?

After an excellent offseason that saw them acquire ace pitcher Corbin Burnes and relief pitcher Craig Kimbrel, what is the Baltimore Orioles' win total set at for 2024, per the MLB win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The Baltimore Orioles' win total is listed at 89.5 with -115 odds on the under.

Let's dig into what we can expect from Baltimore this year and which side of the win total should interest you.

All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published. nERD via numberFire. Projections via FanGraphs.

Baltimore Orioles Win Total OddsXX Win Total Odds

Baltimore Orioles Over/Under 89.5 Wins

  • Over: -105
  • Under: -115

Why Baltimore Could Win Over 89.5 Games (-105)

Repeating last year’s 101-win season is unlikely for Baltimore because it is difficult for any team to reach such a lofty mark. That said, the Orioles were one of the best teams in baseball last season, and nothing has happened between now and then that suggests that will change in 2024.

FanGraphs projects the Orioles to score 4.73 runs per game this season, 11th in baseball and a decline from their 4.98 runs per game in 2023. They project Baltimore to allow 4.51 runs per game this season, 10th in the majors and up from 2023’s mark of 4.19. The result is a projected run differential of +35 that ranks ninth and a record of 85-77 -- below their win total of 89.5.

numberFire has a more positive outlook. In their MLB Power Rankings, the Orioles sit in 5th with a 0.95 nERD and a projected record of 100-62 -- above their win total. Which of these scenarios comes to pass will be heavily reliant on the play of closer Craig Kimbrel and the contributions of Baltimore’s farm system.

With ace closer Felix Bautista (2.8 WAR in 2023) expected to miss all of the 2024 season, the Orioles will be heavily reliant on Kimbrel to anchor their bullpen. Kimbrel’s best seasons are behind him, but he still has a projected WAR of 0.4. For the Orioles to win at least 90 games, they need Kimbrel to produce.

As has been the case for years now, the ace up the Orioles’ sleeve is their farm system, which still ranks first in baseball. After numerous successful debut campaigns from rookies over the past two seasons, most notably from catcher Adley Rutschman and infielder Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore’s farm system still has five prospects ranked inside the top 32. That includes the number one prospect, infielder Jackson Holliday.

The Orioles are an excellent team that still has the potential for improvement from their existing young players and their incoming prospects. It’s a rare situation -- and one that could certainly lead to another fantastic season that results in at least 90 wins.

Why Baltimore Could Win Under 89.5 Games (-115)

The Orioles' 101 wins last season were a drastic overperformance of their run differential. Baltimore finished with a +129 run differential, sixth-best in baseball. They were one of three teams, along with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves, to win at least 100 games. The run differentials of both those teams were drastically higher than the Orioles; the Dodgers finished at +207 and the Braves at +231.

The Tampa Bay Rays, who secured 99 wins, had a run differential of +195 -- 66 more than the Orioles. The Houston Astros finished with the same run differential as Baltimore but only won 90 games while the Texas Rangers bested the Orioles’ run differential by 36 but won 10 fewer games than Baltimore. Two things can be true: the Orioles were an excellent team in 2023, and they were fortunate to win as many games as they did.

In 2024, some regressions is expected. FanGraphs projects the Orioles to be worse on both sides of the ball, resulting in a run differential of +35 (ninth in baseball) that is 94 runs below 2023’s mark. Baltimore is a great team that performed like an elite one last season, but repeating that performance could be a challenging task. On paper, they are not on the same level as the Dodgers and Braves.

As mentioned above, their farm system could change that, but 90 wins is a high bar. FanGraphs’ projections only have three teams (the Dodgers, Braves, and Astros) reaching it. To make matters worse, the Orioles still must contend with an extremely competitive AL East, a division that will magnify any regression Baltimore does experience.

numberFire's power rankings, which have a more positive outlook for Baltimore, still have them as the second-best team in their division; the New York Yankees are ahead of them with a nERD of 1.04. FanGraphs has the Orioles projected for four fewer wins than the Yankees, one fewer win than the Rays, and the same number of wins as the Toronto Blue Jays, but all four project as top-10 teams in baseball.

Baltimore is a great team with a positive outlook for 2024, but 89.5 wins is a lofty mark, and the AL East is full of obstacles to clearing it.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.