MLB

MLB SGP Bets to Target: Tuesday 7/9/24

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin
MLB SGP Bets to Target: Tuesday 7/9/24

Looking for a new way to bet on Major League Baseball this summer? A Same Game Parlay (SGP) at FanDuel Sportsbook might be the answer!

SGPs allow you to combine two or more selections from the same game for a higher potential payout. For more information about parlays, SGP, and SGP+, head over to FanDuel.

Here at FanDuel Research, we're going to provide some SGPs builds to consider based on the games and props available for today, but there are plenty more popular parlay ideas available at FanDuel's Parlay Hub, too!

Which correlated bets stand out for today's MLB slate? Let's dig in.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check FanDuel Research's projections to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB SGP Bets for Tuesday 7/9/24

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels

Max Scherzer Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-148)
Roansy Contreras Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-152)
Corey Seager to Record 2+ Total Bases (-150)

Combined Odds: +348

Fading both starting pitchers in the strikeout department seems like a wise choice ahead of Tuesday's bout between the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels. Max Scherzer will be making just his fourth start of the season, and he's yet to show his typical strikeout upside, failing to reach five-plus Ks in each of his first three starts.

One reason for Scherzer's decline in strikeout rate -- which is sitting at just 17.7% through 16.2 innings -- is likely the fact his average fastball velocity has decreased from 93.9 MPH in 2023 to 92.6 MPH to begin 2024. The matchup also isn't ideal with the Angels carrying the 12th-lowest strikeout rate (21.3%) versus right-handed pitching over the last 30 days.

On the other hand, Roansy Contreras just hasn't pitched deep enough in games and has never been much of a strikeout pitcher in the majors anyway. Contreras is expected to make only his third start -- and 24th overall appearance -- for the Angels this year while he's yet to pitch more than three innings in any outing thus far.

Not only has Contreras achieved four-plus Ks in only one of his appearances all season, but the Rangers are logging the fifth-lowest strikeout rate (20.0%) versus right-handed pitchers. Even though Contreras is showing reverse splits, Corey Seager should take advantage at the plate against Contreras and a dismal Los Angeles bullpen.

Seager is sporting a .392 wOBA, 154 wRC+, .247 ISO, and just a 12.7% strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitching this year while the Angels' bullpen is recording the fourth-worst SIERA (4.18), third-worst xFIP (4.58), and fifth-worst HR/9 (1.15). Taking all of that into account, Seager is being given +230 odds to hit a home run on Dinger Tuesday.

Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres

Adam Mazur Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-122)
Logan Gilbert to Record 4+ Strikeouts (-295)
Luke Raley to Record a Hit (-165)

Combined Odds: +254

Targeting the Seattle Mariners for strikeouts when they're facing a right-handed pitcher has been a profitable strategy all season, but this doesn't appear to be a game to do that. Adam Mazur of the San Diego Padres is entering his seventh start, and he has struggled, ranking in the 19th percentile in xERA (4.80), 12th percentile in xBA (.277), 1st percentile in strikeout rate (12.3%), and 5th percentile in walk rate (13.9%).

Aside from issuing plenty of free passes and hits, Mazur has yet to tally more than four Ks in a start this season. Since pitching six innings in his season debut, Mazur has also yet to eclipse five-plus innings in each of his last five outings.

The Padres aren't a team to target for strikeouts when they're taking on right-handed pitchers as they boast the lowest strikeout rate (18.4%) in that split. At the same time, four-plus Ks from a pitcher like Logan Gilbert seems reasonable in any matchup.

Gilbert is in the 82nd percentile in whiff rate (29.8%) and 62nd percentile in strikeout rate (24.0%), achieving four-plus Ks in 16 of his 18 starts this season. While previous matchups could mean little, Gilbert has allowed a .202 wOBA to San Diego's current roster, giving him a better chance of pitching deep enough into Tuesday's contest to hit four-plus Ks.

Being that Mazur is permitting a .467 wOBA, .615 SLG, and 2.75 WHIP to lefties, compared to .275 wOBA, .353 SLG, and 1.05 WHIP to righties, Luke Raley is an enticing batter to target from the Mariners. Raley is registering a .331 wOBA, 119 wRC+, and .206 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2024.

Toronto Blue Jays at San Francisco Giants

Jorge Soler to Record 2+ Total Bases (+105)
Matt Chapman to Record an RBI (+145)

Combined Odds: +367

Yusei Kikuchi has tailed off in recent starts for the Toronto Blue Jays, allowing multiple earned runs in four consecutive outings while failing to pitch six-plus innings in five consecutive appearances. Against right-handed hitters, Kikuchi is giving up a .329 wOBA, .437 SLG, and 1.36 WHIP through 18 starts.

Provided those splits, Jorge Soler and Matt Chapman are among the bats from the San Francisco Giants who are worth targeting in this SGP. Soler has been batting leadoff versus right-handed pitching in recent games, notching a .304 ISO or higher and a .509 wOBA or higher versus Kikuchi's two primary pitches (four-seam fastball and curveball) against right-handed hitters.

Chapman also performs well against those pitches, logging a .385 wOBA or higher and .499 ISO or higher versus each. With Chapman likely hitting third or fourth in San Francisco's lineup, he should have plenty of RBI chances.

Even when Kikuchi exits the game, Toronto's bullpen is posting the sixth-worst SIERA (4.03), seventh-worst xFIP (4.35), and worst HR/9 (1.55).

Despite Oracle Park being a pitcher-friendly venue, it's worth mentioning that Soler has +400 odds to hit a home run and Chapman has +430 odds in the same market.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.