MLB

MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Sunday 6/16/24

Matthew Lo
Matthew Lo@holla2mlo
MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Sunday 6/16/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros

Yordan Alvarez to Record 2+ Bases (-115)

While Houston's slugger has gone two straight games without logging a hit, the 26-year old has a great spot to break out at home versus Kenta Maeda.

We can feel comfortable Alvarez can inflict some damage on Sunday afternoon when observing his beast metrics this month (.319 expected average, 11 extra base hits, 51% hard hit rate), Maeda's horrible form this season including a concerning 4.85 xFIP, 18.3% K-rate, and a 10.1% opposing barrel percentage, and his problems versus hitters stationed from the left side of the plate throughout his career (4.40 xFIP, .317 wOBA).

In a matchup versus a pitcher producing the worst metrics of his career, expect Yordan Alvarez to back on track.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies

Ryan McMahon to Record 2+ Bases (+100)

Wielding a hot bat after recording six extra base hits in his last four games, Colorado's third hitter should continue recording barrels at baseball's top hitting environment.

While the Pirates have yet to officially announce their starter on Sunday, Pittsburgh is expected to employ a bullpen approach which is great news for McMahon when analyzing their below-average group metrics including a 4.31 xFIP ranked 24th among MLB and a 3.79 SIERA standing 19th.

When analyzing his favorable opportunity and potential positive regression heading his way with a gap between his .316 expected average and .250 actual average in the past week, there are plenty of reasons to believe Ryan McMahon is an ideal target to reach his props especially at misjudged 50% implied percentage.

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox Over 3.5 Runs (-150)
Rafael Devers to Record 2+ Bases (+100)

Rounding out today's slate with one of baseball's biggest rivalries, the Red Sox have an opportunity to continue their recent offensive success against veteran ground-ball specialist Marcus Stroman after scoring 26 runs in their last four games.

Heading into Boston with a deceiving 2.82 ERA, Stroman could be in for a disappointing outing and when analyzing several of his advanced and skill based metrics including an alarming 4.57 xFIP, 4.72 SIERA, and a career-worst 10.2% walk rate and 7.2% opposing barrel percentage.

With regression looming around the corner and an upcoming difficult matchup versus six fly-ball predominant hitters with percentages over 26.9% to counter his ability to keep the ball on the ground, the "BoSox" have the right ingredients in their lineup to surpass their 4.82 expected run total and cause major problems against a pitcher sporting an unsustainable 83.3% left on-base percentage.

In addition to Boston's team total, there is another opportunity to cash in on value with Rafael Devers and his opportunity to exploit Stroman's glaring weakness versus left-handed hitters (5.08 xFIP, 18.2% fly-ball to home run ratio, 32.4% hard hit rate). The Red Sox's third baseman has been in ideal form throughout June, accounting for an impressive .322 expected average, 7 extra-base hits, and a 59% hard hit rate in his last 51 plate appearances.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.