MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Sunday 5/5/24

Matthew Lo
Matthew Lo@holla2mlo
MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Sunday 5/5/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals

Texas Rangers Moneyline (-132)

After yesterday's convincing blowout victory, the Rangers again present some value in this series as a favorite in Kansas City.

Taking the mound for Texas, Jon Gray presents a defined pitching edge for the Rangers with his career numbers (3.83 xFIP, 4.01 SIERA) and stellar form this season (3.46 xFIP, 25.5% K-rate, 3.55 SIERA) while Kansas City's Daniel Lynch has represented below-average metrics in 252.0 career innings with a 4.76 xFIP and 4.74 SIERA.

With advantages in almost every aspect including the Rangers' arms and bats, we should be pouncing on an opportunity to bet on the more complete team and the enormous value presented between Texas' 64.8% win probability and their implied 56.9% percentage.

Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers

Atlanta Braves Over 4.5 Runs (-104)

In a matchup versus left-hander James Paxton, MLB's ninth ranked offense has an intriguing spot to regain some traction after an underwhelming two run performance on Saturday night.

On the surface, the Dodgers' veteran southpaw looks like a pitcher we want to avoid betting against with a 3.52 ERA this season but an incoming blowup is looming around the corner when examining his 6.23 xFIP and career-low 13.2% K-rate.

When considering Paxton's concerning form and Atlanta's elite metrics versus left-handed pitching (5th in slugging percentage, 6th in OPS), there should be plenty of optimism towards Atlanta's offense getting back on track and reaching their team total in today's ideal matchup.

San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks

San Diego Padres Over 4.5 Runs (-102)
Jake Cronenworth to Record 2+ Bases (-125)

Heading into Sunday afternoon in raging hot form with 32 runs scored in their last four games, "The Swinging Friars" are a team to ride with versus right-hander Ryne Nelson.

There are plenty of reasons to trust San Diego can reach their 5.36 run expectation on Sunday afternoon when analyzing Nelson's struggles as a starter throughout his three MLB seasons (5.16 xFIP, 16.2% K-rate) and the Padres' unique ability to exploit his inability to get outs versus the opposing side the plate (5.60 xFIP, 14.6% K-rate, .356 wOBA) with four outstanding lefty bats containing weighted on-base averages ranging from .315 to .378.

With all data points indicating a big performance is in the works in Arizona, we should also consider San Diego's left-handed bats contributing in a big way versus Nelson's splits with a main focus on Jake Cronenworth and his recent impressive form in his 44 at-bats including a .294 expected average and 40% hard hit rate.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.