MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 6/1/24

Matthew Lo
Matthew Lo@holla2mlo
MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 6/1/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Oakland Athletics at Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves Runline -1.5 (-144)
Matt Olson to Record 2+ Bases (-105)

While Atlanta is dealing with some major injuries including losing superstar Ronald Acuna for the season, the Braves should be in good shape to win easily at home in a matchup between Chris Sale and Aaron Brooks.

A big reason to believe Atlanta can win by at least two runs on Saturday afternoon can be seen in the enormous edge Sale presents on the mound when comparing their ace's impressive metrics and revitalized form including a sparkling 2.39 xFIP and a 2.42 SIERA with Aaron Brooks' below-average profile (5.07 xFIP, 11.4% K-rate) and poor career resume (5.22 xFIP in 148.1 career innings as a starter).

When evaluating Atlanta's concrete advantages including higher offensive rankings since May 26th in wOBA (20th versus 26th), wRC+(20h versus 25th), and Wins Above Replacement (16th versus 26th) despite their injuries and a wide gap between today's starting pitchers, our models fully expect the Braves to fulfill their 79.3% win probability and cover their spread with a projected score at 6.5 to 3.7.

In addition to today's runline, we should have another opportunity to capture value by focusing on today's matchup between Atlanta's left-handed bats and Brook's poor metrics in this split (.370 wOBA, 18.8% home run to fly-ball ratio, 5.00 xFIP) with a focus on Matt Olson and his gaudy batted ball statistics this season (.363 wOBA, 13.8% barrel rate).

St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-142)

After taking the first contest of this series on Friday night, the Phillies have a great opportunity to win their third straight despite facing St.Louis' top starter Sonny Gray.

There are several reasons to back Philadelphia at home when examining the overall advantages employed by the Phillies as a more complete team including higher rankings in wOBA (4th versus 20th) and wRC+(4th versus 17th), an elite bullpen (2nd versus 14th in WAR), and comparable starting pitching with Ranger Suarez's elite form this season including an impressive 2.69 xFIP and 2.82 SIERA.

While some may be hesitant to bet against an opposing ace with a career best 2.52 xFIP, there is still enormous value to be found with the overall better team especially when analyzing a 5% gap between their 63.6% win probability and 58.6% implied percentage.

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers

Freddie Freeman to Record 2+ Bases (-105)

Despite back-to-back empty performances in his last two games, Los Angeles' first baseman should rebound on Saturday night against right-hander Cal Quantrill.

While Freeman has somewhat struggled in his last 22 plate appearances with a .252 expected average, the 34-year old has still hit the ball well with a 41% hard hit rate and perfectly counters Quantrill's ability to keep the ball on the ground (48.4%) with an elite 41.5% fly-ball percentage.

In an ideal spot versus a pitcher he has produced a eye-popping .444 average against, expect the Dodgers' All-Star to regain his mojo and get back on track.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.