MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 5/4/24

Matthew Lo
Matthew Lo@holla2mlo
MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 5/4/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds

Baltimore Orioles Over 4.5 Runs (-106)

Despite producing just 16 runs in their last five games, the Baltimore Orioles are due for an offensive breakout with a healthy 5.48 run projection against Cincinnati's southpaw Andrew Abbott.

There are several reasons to believe the Orioles can easily reach their expected team total in an exciting offensive environment ranked fourth in park factors including Abbott's declining skillset this season (career low 6.8% swinging strike rate, 4.68 xFIP) and Baltimore's elite ability to hit left-handed pitching (2nd in OPS, Slugging percentage).

With seven right-handed hitters anchoring a well-rounded attack to take advantage of Abbott's troubling metrics in this split (.340 wOBA, 4.89 xFIP), we have the right matchup and positive data points to back the O's elite offense.

Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals

Texas Rangers Moneyline (-112)

In a matchup between Dane Dunning and Michael Wacha, MLB's defending champions present value as a favorite in Kansas City.

On the mound for the Rangers, Dane Dunning can be seen as the better pitcher after he displayed improved form in his fifth season with a career-best 3.76 xFIP and a 28.9% K-rate while Kansas City's Michael Wacha has profiled as a league average arm throughout his career (4.05 xFIP, 4.20 SIERA).

When evaluating several advantages the Rangers employ over the Royals including a higher rated starter, bullpen (11th versus 28th in xFIP), and offense (11th versus 16th in wOBA, 13th versus 18th in wRC+), there is a great opportunity to grab some Sklansky bucks with the favorite especially with a pronounced 7.6% gap between Texas' 60.4% win probability and their 52.8% implied percentage.

Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers Over 4.5 Runs (-128)
Freddie Freeman to Record 2+ Bases (+100)

Heading into Saturday night with some inconsistent offensive performances in the past week, the Dodgers have an appealing spot to establish themselves against Atlanta's third-year starter Bryce Elder.

Through 240.2 career innings, Elder has not been an effective pitcher when he is unable to keep the ball on the ground (50.7% percentage), accounting for a 4.42 xFIP and a 18.0% K-rate while also displaying concerning splits to left-handed bats (5.19 xFIP, 13.9% K-rate).

With all signs pointing towards a nightmare outing when considering Elder's main weakness and matchup against a Los Angeles' unit stacked with five lefty hitters, we can feel comfortable the Dodgers have the right spot on Saturday night to surpass their team total while also focusing on Freddie Freeman's recent batted ball form in his last 62 at-bats (44% hard hit rate, 8 extra-base hits) and incoming positive regression (.313 expected average / .274 average).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.