MLB Betting Guide for Wednesday 9/6/23: Trusting a Trio of Home Favorites

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

Rays -1.5 (+128)

We kick things off out east where I like the Tampa Bay Rays to cover 1.5 runs against the Boston Red Sox.

Tyler Glasnow takes the mound for Tampa Bay. Glasnow has finally managed to stay healthy this season and has been one of the most effective arms in baseball.

For the season, he ranks second in both SIERA (3.18) and strikeout rate (31.7%) while keeping the whiff rate high (35.1%) and the walk rate low (7.1%). Glasnow is the rare strikeout pitcher who forces a ton of grounders, too, as his 50.9% ground-ball rate sits in the 83rd percentile league-wide.

Glasnow takes on a Red Sox offense that is strong against righties but whom he previously held to just a single run back in June. Since the All-Star break, Boston sits in the top 10 in wOBA (.341) and ISO (.197) against righties. While it won't be a cakewalk, Glasnow's recorded a quality start in seven of his last eight starts, so he's well up to the task.

Moving over to Boston's side, Nick Pivetta gets the starting nod and brings with him solid all-around numbers. He sports a strong 3.51 SIERA to go along with an elite 30.7% strikeout rate. However, Pivetta struggles with walks (9.5%) and when opponents do make contact, they do so hard and with the right part of the bat. He sits in the bottom 10% of the league in both barrel rate (12.3%) and hard-hit rate (45.5%) -- both dangerous numbers against such a well-rounded Rays lineup.

For the season, the Rays boast the fourth-highest wOBA (.336) and the third-highest ISO (.191) against right-handed pitchers. They haven't missed a beat without Wander Franco, as they still hold the 10th-highest wOBA (.342) and the 6th-highest wRC+ (122) since losing him on August 12th. Though they've struck out at a 23.7% clip over that span, they've also won by two-plus runs in 12 of their 20 games without him.

I don't mind sprinkling something on Under 8.0 (-120) total runs but would rather put my eggs in Glasnow's basket and trust the Rays to cover as home favorites.

St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves

Braves -1.5 (-146)

Sticking with the home favorites, we move down south where the Atlanta Braves host the St. Louis Cardinals.

You won't get much value taking Braves ML (-310), but laying 1.5 runs will get you a bit more value and feels like a slam dunk given the pitching matchup.

For Atlanta, ace Spencer Strider toes the rubber looking for his league-leading 17th win.

Strider has been magnificent in his sophomore season. He leads all qualified starters by a wide margin with a 2.76 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and a 38.0% strikeout rate and sits in the 93rd percentile with a .196 expected batting average allowed.

Baseball's unquestioned strikeout king, he's posted an elite 35.0% chase rate and 40.0% whiff rate. Though he is coming off a mixed outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Strider had previously given up just a single run across his last 21 innings.

The Cardinals have some strong bats but have taken a step back against righties over the last month. Since August 1st, they rank just 13th in wOBA (.326) while striking out at a 22.1% clip. Over that same span, they generated the second-highest rate of soft contact (18.1%) against right-handed pitchers.

On the opposite side, Dakota Hudson is the projected starter for St. Louis. Hudson is coming off a stellar outing in which he gave up just three hits in 7.0 innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates. However, he didn't record a single strikeout despite facing 26 batters and has otherwise struggled this season. Hudson sports an ugly 5.08 SIERA while allowing a 44.1% hard-hit rate. With a minuscule strikeout rate (13.9%), he'll be hard-pressed to contain Atlanta's high-octane offense.

Since the All-Star break, the Braves have led the league in wOBA (.366), ISO (.235), and wRC+ (130) against right-handed pitchers. They've averaged a league-leading 6.2 runs per game over that span and should thrive against such a strikeout-averse pitcher.

Though they dropped yesterday's opener, Atlanta still managed six runs. With their ace on the bump, they should be able to keep that offensive momentum rolling and come away with at minimum a two-run win.

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals

Royals ML (-120)

We close things out with a third and final home favorite -- the Kansas City Royals moneyline against the Chicago White Sox.

Kansas City has taken each of the first two games of this series, 7-6 and 12-1. They've won five of six home games against the White Sox this season and have a clear advantage on the mound tonight.

Righty Jordan Lyles takes the ball for the series finale. Lyles has an abysmal 6.29 ERA for the season but is coming off arguably his best start of the season -- an 8.0-inning, 2-run performance against the Red Sox in which he struck out 7. He's pitched slightly better than his ERA suggests (though a 5.16 SIERA is nothing to write home about) and ranks second among qualified starters with a 34.1% hard-hit rate allowed.

Lyles is no ace, but you don't have to be when you're facing the Sox. Since the All-Star break, Chicago's south siders sport the second-lowest wOBA (.294), the third-lowest ISO (.141), and the second-highest ground ball rate (45.2%) against right-handed pitchers.

Speaking of the Sox, they trot out Touki Toussaint for the finale. Toussaint has had a similarly rough season as Lyles. Through 11 starts, the righty sports a 5.34 SIERA and a sky-high 16.0% walk rate. He pitched well in his last two outings but had previously given up 18 runs across his first four August starts and hasn't walked fewer than two hitters since July.

Unlike the White Sox, the Royals have been solid against righties over the second half. Since the beginning of August, Kansas City ranks 11th in wOBA (.329) and 14th in ISO (.179) in that split.

With two shaky pitchers squaring off, I lean towards the home team who actually has some resemblance of an offense and confidently back the Royals to win outright.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.