MLB Betting Guide for Wednesday 9/27/23: An Undervalued Home Underdog

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves

Braves -1.5 (+126)

A day after the Atlanta Braves came back from six-run deficit to beat the Chicago Cubs, I'm backing them to not only win outright tonight but to cover as 1.5-run favorites. Getting the Braves at plus odds to cover as home favorites? Count me in.

This one boils down to the pitching matchup, or, one side of the pitching matchup.

The visiting Cubs send Jameson Taillon out for his 29th start of the season. The righty has been wildly inconsistent in his first season with the Cubs. Coming into tonight, Taillon sports a 5.05 ERA and a 4.94 expected ERA (xERA). He doesn't generate many strikeouts (21.8% rate) or whiffs (22.3%) but also doesn't walk many hitters (6.3%). While he gives up hard hits at a slightly below-average rate (38.4%), Taillon allows a high barrel rate (10.7%) and does a poor job forcing ground balls (38.4%).

That is not a recipe for success against the Atlanta Braves. In addition to leading the league with an 11.9% barrel rate overall, Atlanta has absolutely shredded right-handed pitchers. For the season, the Braves boast the highest wOBA (.356), ISO (.224), and wRC+ (123) in that split.

For the home Braves, Darius Vines is in a nice spot to build off an encouraging start to his career. Though he's only made it through 4 innings once, Vines has allowed just a .204 batting average through his first 4 starts. His 4.40 ERA isn't great, but his Statcast numbers are. It's a small sample, sure, but the righty has held opponents to measly 4.4% barrel and 26.7% hard-hit rates.

Chicago has hit righties well over the second half of the year, but they've started to cool off over the last month. Since August 27th, the Cubs rank 12th in wOBA (.323) and 21st in ISO (.155) against right-handed pitchers.

Those aren't bad numbers by any means, but I'm not sure they'll be able to overcome the deficit Jameson Taillon will put them in.

Consequently, Braves -0.5 First 5 (-120) is worth a look -- as is the Braves Over 4.5 (-132).

Miami Marlins at New York Mets

Mets ML (-136)

In the second game of Wednesday's doubleheader, I like the New York Mets to take down the Miami Marlins for one reason, and one reason only: Kodai Senga.

The Japanese phenom has transitioned seamlessly into the States and will be making the final start of his rookie season tonight. Through 28 starts, Senga owns a shining 2.96 ERA to go along with his eye-popping 28.8% strikeout rate. While Senga can struggle with walks (11.0% BB rate), he makes up for it with that high strikeout rate and a .207 batting average allowed.

The righty has absolutely owned the Marlins this season. In three starts against them, he's given up just 4 runs across 17.1 innings, striking out 17 and picking up 3 wins in the process. One of those outings came just last week when Senga held Miami to two runs in 6.0 innings of work.

Struggling against a right-handed pitcher is nothing new for the Marlins. Since the All-Star break, Miami ranks just 21st in wOBA (.311), 19th in ISO (.164), and 21st in wRC+ (93) in that split. They've really struggled to elevate the ball against righties, hitting ground balls at the highest rate (45.3%) and fly balls at the second-lowest (35.7%).

On the opposite side, we just need the Mets' lineup to take care of business against Johnny Cueto.

That shouldn't be too difficult as the former ace has looked like a shell of his former self. He's only thrown 48 innings in his age-37 season but hasn't enjoyed much success, posting a 6.19 ERA and giving up a .257 batting average. Cueto doesn't strike many hitters out (17.5%) and is no longer the ground ball wiz he once was, forcing grounders at a 35.1% clip -- a bottom 13% mark in the league.

The Mets, meanwhile, just saw Cueto last week. They forced him out after 2.0 innings but not before pegging him for a pair of solo home runs. That could very well happen again tonight considering their right-handed splits. Against righties, the Metropolitans boast the 10th-highest ISO (.173) and 9th-highest HR/FB rate (13.8%).

Still, at the end of the day, this play is all about Kodai Senga. With how well he's pitched all season (and especially against the Marlins), Mets moneyline is a strong play -- even at -136 odds.

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners

Mariners ML (+102)

With just 0.5 a game separating the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners for the final AL Wild Card spot, tonight's rubber match has serious playoff ramifications. Seattle was able to even the series at one thanks to a 6-2 win last night, and I'm expecting them to come out ahead again tonight.

It won't come easy as the Astros will pitch their ace, Framber Valdez. Valdez was on the short list of AL Cy Young candidates in the first half of the season but has quietly been shaky since the All-Star break. Across his last 13 starts, the lefty has pitched to a 4.55 ERA and has managed just a 22.4% strikeout rate. It's not like he's getting super unlucky, either, as opposing hitters have a measly .265 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against him.

While we can't ignore how dominant he was over the first half of the year, it's worth noting that Seattle hasn't had any issues with him in 2023. The Mariners have faced Valdez twice this season, putting up 15 hits and 8 runs on him in just 11 innings.

Seattle has hit lefties well in general over the second half of the year. Since the All-Star break, the Mariners sit in the top 10 in both wOBA (.337) and wRC+ (119) against southpaws. That, coupled with their prior success against Valdez and his own struggles of late, makes me confident in Seattle's ability to put up runs tonight.

Still, that's only half of the puzzle. If the Mariners are going to cash as home underdogs for us, we need a stellar outing from Bryce Miller.

The right-handed rookie has been up and down during his debut season but has, for the most part, been a strong starter. For the season, Miller has pitched to a 4.17 ERA and a 4.19 SIERA while striking out 22.2% of hitters and issuing walks at a 4.8% clip. Still, he doesn't generate a ton of ground balls (33.6% rate) and notably gives up more than his fair share of barrels (10.8%) and hard hits (41.7%).

While his numbers may not jump off the page, Miller has been a nightmare for the Astros this season. Across two starts, Miller has picked up a pair of wins, shutting Houston out across 12.1 innings and allowing just 6 base runners.

With that in mind, I'm more than comfortable taking the Mariners moneyline, and it would only make sense to look at Mariners +1.5 (-170), as well.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.