MLB Betting Guide for Wednesday 9/20/23: Cubs Look to Stay Hot and Cover

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

New York Mets at Miami Marlins

Under 7.5 (-114)

We kick things off down south where runs should be hard to come by with the New York Mets visiting the Miami Marlins.

That's mainly due to the pitching matchup as both teams trot their prized rookie arms onto the bump.

For the Mets, Kodai Senga is a rookie in name only. The 30-year-old has transitioned seamlessly into Major League Baseball. Through 27 starts, Senga owns a 2.95 ERA and a 3.96 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). Senga's swing-and-miss stuff is downright disgusting, evidenced by a 29.9% whiff rate and 29.5% strikeout rate.

He's really rounded into form over the second half of the year. The righty hasn't allowed more than three runs since June and has racked up double-digit strikeouts in three of his last four outings.

He'll have a good chance to keep that positive momentum rolling tonight against a shaky Marlins lineup. Since the All-Star break, Miami ranks in the bottom 10 in wOBA (.306), ISO (.162), and wRC+ (90) against right-handed pitchers. Senga had no issues with Miami in his first two career starts, limiting them to 2 runs through 11.1 innings of work back in April.

On the flip side, Eury Perez may be among the youngest players in the Majors, but the 20-year-old doesn't show it on the mound. Perez has flashed dominance in a limited sample size this season. Perez owns a 3.06 ERA, 3.79 SIERA, and 29.5% strikeout rate through two different stints in the bigs. Though he's allowed 7 runs in his last 14.1 innings, Perez has only given up more than 3 runs in 3 of his 18 starts.

Despite some big bats in their lineup, the Mets haven't been especially frightening over the second half of the year. Across the last month, New York has averaged the eighth-fewest runs per game (4.22). They rank just 18th in wOBA (.316) over that span and have struck out at a 25.7% clip against right-handed pitchers.

While Perez likely won't pitch past the 5th or 6th inning, the Mets thankfully boast an above-average bullpen that has compiled the 11th-lowest FIP since the All-Star break.

Both offenses have been maddeningly inconsistent, making this a strong under spot considering how well the starters have pitched.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs

Cubs -1.5 (+118)

After thrashing the Pittsburgh Pirates 14-1 in yesterday's opener, the Chicago Cubs have a lot of intrigue as 1.5-run favorites, especially at plus odds.

It doesn't hurt that Chicago's ace, Justin Steele, toes the rubber tonight. Steele is coming off one of his worst outings of the season but still owns the second-lowest 2.73 ERA among qualified starters. He's backed that up with a strong 3.67 SIERA and touts a respectable 24.2% strikeout rate to boot. Steele's biggest strength is his ability to limit quality contact. He boasts exceptional 5.3% barrel, 36.3% hard-hit, and 50.3% ground ball rates.

That's music to our ears if we like Chicago to cover against Pittsburgh given how poorly they've hit righties this month. Since September 1st, the Pirates rank in the bottom 10 in both wOBA (.291) and ISO (.153) against right-handers. Add in that Steele registered a quality start in a meeting with Pittsburgh just last month, and it's easy to be optimistic about his chances tonight.

Assuming Steele can handle Pittsburgh's lineup, we just need Chicago to put up runs on righty Mitch Keller. Though they failed to do so last month when Keller tossed 8.0 scoreless innings against them, that was at PNC Park. Keller's home/road splits are staggering this season. At home, he's pitched to a 2.90 ERA and allowed a measly 2.72 wOBA.

Elite numbers, sure. But what has he done on the road?

Nothing good.

Keller's ERA balloons to 5.15 on the road, and he's given up a .336 wOBA in the process. I have a hard time buying into him containing Chicago's lineup tonight.

I don't love putting all my stock into home/road splits, but when the difference is this drastic, it's certainly worth taking into account. That, coupled with Steele's track record and Chicago's explosion in Game 1, gives me a lot of confidence in their ability to cover 1.5 runs tonight.

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals ML (+100)

We stay in the NL Central for our last play today where I like the last-place St. Louis Cardinals to take down the first-place Milwaukee Brewers at even odds.

On paper, taking the last-place team on the moneyline against the first-place team doesn't feel great, but this isn't the NL East. This is the NL Central where parity reigns supreme. For as bad as the Cardinals have been this season, they've battled the Brewers, winning four of eight games against them thus far.

St. Louis is by no means a good baseball team right now, but that's through no fault of their offense. They've been solid against righties over the second half of the year, ranking 11th in wOBA (.325) and tying for 10th in wRC+ (106) since the All-Star break.

That bodes well for their chances tonight with Adrian Houser slated to start for Milwaukee. Houser hasn't been great in 2023, pitching to a 4.53 ERA and 4.45 SIERA. His inability to generate whiffs (17.9%) and tendency to allow hard hits (46.9%) is a dangerous combination if your goal is to limit runs. Consequently, it's not hard to envision St. Louis roughing him up considering he's allowed three or more runs in six of his nine starts since the All-Star break.

I'm confident the Cardinals will be able to put up runs tonight, but that hasn't been why they've struggled to win games. That fault would fall on the pitching.

For this bet to hit, we're putting stock in lefty Zack Thompson. Thompson has been up-and-down as a starter. In seven outings, he's pitched to a 4.65 ERA and 4.22 FIP. However, he's gotten unlucky with a .337 BABIP, and he boasts a respectable strikeout rate (21.6%) and has done a much better job at home where he's running a 3.06 ERA.

Thompson faces a neutral matchup against the Brewers. For the season, Milwaukee ranks just 19th in wOBA (.317) and 18th in ISO (.152) against lefties. They've additionally struck out at the eighth-highest clip (23.9) in that split.

We're trusting St. Louis' bats and Milwaukee's shaky splits here -- though Over 8.5 (-105) is certainly eye-catching given both pitchers' inconsistencies.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.