MLB Betting Guide for Tuesday 9/5/23: Value in Bottom Feeders

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals

Royals ML (-118)

We kick things off in the AL Central, backing the Kansas City Royals on the moneyline against the Chicago White Sox.

Despite crushing the Sox 12-1 in yesterday's series opener, the Royals are only marginal favorites here -- though that likely has something to do with the pitching matchup.

On paper, it would appear Chicago has the advantage on the bump. Last season's Cy Young runner-up, Dylan Cease is slated to make his 29th start of the season. Despite his prowess last year, 2023 has not been nearly as kind to Cease. He's running a brutal 4.91 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. While his 4.27 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) tells us he hasn't pitched quite as bad as his numbers suggest, he's still been wildly ineffective for the majority of the season.

Cease's struggles have been on full display in his prior three starts, having given up 17 runs and 10 walks across his last 15 innings. With two of those coming against the Colorado Rockies and Oakland Athletics, I don't have much faith in his ability to lock down the Royals.

That's especially true given how well Kansas City has hit righties over the second half. Since the All-Star break, the Royals boast the 12th-highest wOBA (.323) and the fifth-highest rate of hard contact (36.7%) in that split.

Defensively, Kansas City trots Brady Singer out onto the mound. Singer's ratios (5.15 ERA and 1.40 WHIP) are just as poor as Cease's and his expected stats (4.38 SIERA and 4.90 xERA) are even worse. However, he's cut his ERA down to 3.98 at home and gets a cakewalk of a matchup tonight.

The Sox have been one of the worst lineups in baseball against righties all season, but they've really fallen off over the last month. Since August 1st, Chicago's south siders hold the fourth-lowest wOBA (.294), ISO (.140), and wRC+ (84) against right-handed pitchers. Singer has only seen his division foes once this season but he pitched well, limiting the Sox to just a single run in 6.0 innings of work.

After yesterday's beatdown, I don't expect the tides to turn for Chicago tonight, making Kansas City a value to win at home.

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers

Under 9 (-122)

We now move from bottom feeders to contenders in checking out the Houston Astros-Texas Rangers matchup. Both AL West foes send their aces out tonight, making this a strong under with the total set for 9.0 runs.

For the visiting 'Stros, Framber Valdez will look to find some consistency following two consecutive quality starts. Though Valdez's second half has been up and down, his overall body of work is still strong. Through 26 starts, Valdez boasts a 3.66 SIERA and a 3.36 xFIP. He's maintained a solid 28.3% called + swinging strike rate (CSW%) and has been stingy with walks (6.3%). Yes, Valdez gives up a lot of hard hits (45.6%), but that's mitigated by his stellar 55.6% groundball rate.

While the Rangers' lineup is full of capable hitters, they haven't been nearly as scary against righties over the last month. Since August 1st, Texas ranks 11th in wOBA (.330) and wRC+ (108) in that split -- both solid numbers but not the earth-shattering marks they were putting up early in the summer. Considering they've struck out at the ninth-highest clip (24.1%) against righties over that span, Valdez and his 24.2% strikeout rate could feast as long as he keeps the ball on the ground.

For Texas, Nathan Eovaldi will make his first start since July 18th after spending over a month on the injured list. Eovaldi was in the midst of a career year prior to his injury. In 19 starts, the 33-year-old held 2.69 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. He was pitching a little over his head but his xERA (3.51) was still strong and a 23.2% strikeout rate is nothing to scoff at.

The Astros have hit righties well over the second half of the year, but their .152 ISO and 44.5% groundball rate and both exploitable numbers.

Tonight won't be either pitcher's first time seeing the opposition this season. Valdez was rocked by Texas at the end of July but had previously held the Rangers to just a single earned run and struck out seven. Eovaldi spun a masterpiece in an early July start against Houston, tossing 7.0 shutout innings while striking out five.

It's a little unsettling to fade both of these high-octane offenses, but with each team's ace on the bump, I don't see this getting to 10 runs.

San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs

Under 10.5 (-114)

Closing things out, the 10.5-run total set for tonight's San Francisco Giants-Chicago Cubs matchup is far too high given San Fran's offense and both sides' pitching staffs.

The Giants will use Ryan Walker as an opener tonight with Sean Manaea expected to see the bulk of the innings. Walker has been excellent in that role, having given up a run just three times in 20 appearances since the All-Star break. Manaea hasn't been as effective but he's dealt with some bad luck. Despite a 4.96 ERA, the lefty sports a solid 3.78 SIERA to go along with his 27.8% strikeout rate.

If Walker can get through the first inning unscathed, Manaea matches up well with Chicago's offense. While the Cubs boast capable bats up and down their lineup, they've struggled mightily against southpaws over the last month with a .293 wOBA (22nd in MLB) and 83 wRC+ (21st).

That said, even if the Cubs get to the Giants' pitchers, the under is fully in play thanks to Kyle Hendricks. The soft-throwing righty has been rock-solid thanks to a 3.59 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Although his expected stats aren't as strong (4.04 xERA and 4.39 xFIP), he's registered 6 quality starts in 10 second-half starts. Hendricks delivered his best start of the season in his previous matchup with San Francisco, tossing 8.0 shutout innings during which he allowed just a single hit.

I wouldn't go so far as to project another performance like that tonight, but it wouldn't shock me. The Giants have been downright atrocious against righties over the last month. Since August 1st, San Francisco has by far the lowest wOBA (.266), ISO (.098), and wRC+ (67) in that split.

Even if the Cubs put up a few runs, a lack of juice from the Giants' lineup makes this an easy under.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.