MLB Betting Guide for Tuesday 10/2/23: Milwaukee Burnes Arizona's Offense

Playoff baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the jam-packed MLB postseason. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins

Twins ML (-116)

Kevin Gausman and the Toronto Blue Jays probably weren't thrilled to draw the Minnesota Twins in the Wild Card round.

Toronto's ace -- and Tuesday's starter -- struggled in two regular season matchups with Minnesota. Across 10.0 innings, Gausman gave up 11 hits, 7 runs, and a staggering 12 walks. Although the American League strikeout king managed to punch 12 Twins out in those 10 innings of work, the walks are certainly a concern ahead of Tuesday's opener.

Still, two games aren't nearly large enough of a sample to draw real conclusions from. For the majority of the season, Gausman was one of the most consistent arms in baseball. He finished the regular season with a 3.16 ERA -- backed up by a 3.34 SIERA and 3.22 xFIP. Gausman's lethal splitter propelled him to 31.1% strikeout and 32.6% chase rates -- top-15% marks league-wide.

However, Gausman gave up more than his fair share of quality contact this season. He was in the 20th percentile in both barrel rate (9.9%) and hard-hit rate (43.3%) allowed and, in turn, posted his highest xwOBA (.303) of the past four seasons.

That came with an uptick in walks, as well. This season's 7.2% walk rate was still an above-average mark, but control issues proved to be his Achilles heel toward the end of the season. Across his final 5 starts, Gausman's walk rate soared to 12.2%. Given his previous command issues against Minnesota, that is the opposite of what Toronto backers want to see coming into the Wild Card round.

An additional concern for Gausman is his recent postseason track record. Last year, he was pounded for 4 runs in 5.2 innings. The season prior, Gausman let up another 4 runs in 5.1 innings. We don't want to draw definitive conclusions from such a small sample, but it's hard to ignore how shaky the righty has been the last two postseasons.

Looking at the opposing offense, the Twins match up well with Gausman on paper even if you throw away their head-to-head success against him. While the 48 Minnesota batters Gausman faced did rack up a .401 wOBA, they were among the best offenses against righties all year. In that split, the Twins ranked fifth in wOBA (.330) and fourth in ISO (.188) while walking at the third-highest clip (9.9%). They only improved as the season went on, as well, compiling the second-highest wRC+ (123) in that split from the All-Star break onward.

There is some concern that Minnesota could struggle if Gausman's control is on point. They struck out at the highest rate (27.0%) against righties, and their -6.0 runs above average against splitters was one of the 10-lowest marks in baseball. However, they were also one of the most patient teams in the league over the second half, swinging at the 8th-lowest rate overall (46.5%) and the 10th-lowest against pitches out of the zone (30.8%).

Consequently, Gausman will both a) have to find the zone and consistently throw strikes and b) have to shut down one of the five-best offenses in baseball in his split. With how the last month has gone, I don't like his odds of doing both.

Even if Gausman pitches well, the Blue Jays' offense needs to show up -- something that's happened inconsistently (at best) over the second half of the year.

After the All-Star break, Toronto ranked just 14th in wOBA (.318) and 17th in ISO (.167) against right-handed pitchers. The Blue Jays slotted in a pedestrian 14th in scoring over that span -- though they did put up 5.8 runs per game across their final four series.

Still, I lean on the side of Pablo Lopez between the two parties tonight. The righty is finally getting national recognition in his first season with Minnesota but he's held a sub-4.00 ERA for four years in a row now. Lopez finished 2023 with career-bests in SIERA (3.37) and strikeout rate (29.2%) while cutting his walk rate down to 6.0%. Unlike Gausman, Lopez didn't have any trouble limiting quality contact. He was in the top 25% of the league in both barrel (6.3%) and hard-hit rate (34.8%) allowed and had one of the reddest Statcast pages you'll find.

I won't blame you if you're concerned about how he finished the year. Although he gave up 11 runs across his final three starts, he only walked two over that span and actually had his best xFIP month (2.40) of the season in September. He also didn't look great in his single start against Toronto (4 ER in 5.2 innings), but that was back in May -- well before his second-half breakout.

Neither team has much of a concern in the bullpen. Minnesota's relief numbers aren't great as a whole, but they've largely gotten rid of the problematic arms. With guys like Jhoan Duran (3.21 FIP), Emilio Pagan (3.27), Louie Varland (2.84), and Griffin Jax (3.23), the Twins have a ton of capable options to throw at the Blue Jays.

Neither starter closed out the season with their best stuff, but I'm more concerned about Gausman than Lopez in the opener. Minnesota has the advantage on offense and it's a toss-up in the 'pen, so I like the home Twins on the moneyline -- though you can't go wrong with Twins +1.5 (-200), even if the value isn't great.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers

Diamondbacks Under 3.5 Runs (-140)

I don't trust the Milwaukee Brewers' offense enough to take a side in their opener with the Arizona Diamondbacks, but I do trust Corbin Burnes.

A lot.

It was business as usual for Mr. Burnes this season. Though he started off slow (that 5.02 FIP in May was especially egregious), Burnes pitched to a 2.71 ERA over the second half of the year. Over that span, he held batters to a .248 wOBA and maintained a 28.6% strikeout rate. There were still some blow-ups here and there, but he didn't allow a run in three of his final four starts and comes into the postseason fresh, having thrown just 66 pitches in the last 10 days.

We know who Corbin Burnes is at this point -- an ace. A sluggish start won't shake my confidence in him -- not with how sharp he looked over the second half and certainly not with his playoff track record.

The sample is small (15.0 innings), but Burnes hasn't shied away from the playoff stage. He tossed six shutout innings against Atlanta in a postseason start two years ago and had previously given up just 2 runs in 9.2 relief innings during Milwaukee's 2018 run.

That's enough for me to trust Burnes in the series opener even if he struggled a bit against Arizona during the regular season.

The 2021 Cy Young faced the Diamondbacks twice this season. The first meeting went great, he struck out 8 across 8.0 shutout innings out in Phoenix.

The second meeting was a complete flip. Arizona came into Milwaukee and pounded Burnes for 7 runs across 5.0 innings back in June.

We've seen both sides of the extreme play out when Corbin Burnes takes on the Diamondbacks, but tonight, I'm expecting it to shift back his way.

That largely has to do with where the two parties have gone since they last met. While Burnes has steadily improved as the season's progressed, the D-Backs offense has only gotten worse. Since the break, Arizona ranks just 22nd in wOBA (.308), 26th in ISO (.148), and 23rd in wRC+ (91) against right-handed pitchers. They're generating the sixth-highest rate of soft contact (16.3%) and the ninth-highest ground ball rate (43.7%) over that span -- two things you can't do at a high rate if you want to succeed against Corbin Burnes.

Burnes had excellent quality of contact numbers during the regular season. He held opponents to a 5.3% barrel rate and 32.4% hard-hit rate, simultaneously forcing ground balls at a 44.1% clip.

I wouldn't be shocked to see Corbin Burnes go the distance tonight, but rest assured that the Brewers bullpen will do their part when called upon. Devin Williams (2.66 FIP) garners most of the notoriety closing things out, but Trevor Megill (2.15), Hoby Milner (3.13), and Abner Uribe (2.77) are lights-out themselves. They've spearheaded a Milwaukee bullpen that had the second-best ERA (3.40) and third-best WHIP (1.21) during the regular season.

I just don't see Arizona generating much offense given their struggles over the second half of the year. It was a fun ride for the young D-backs, but Corbin Burnes should put them in their place to kick off the postseason and hold them under 3.5 runs.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.