MLB Betting Guide for Friday 9/15/23: Steele-ing Value With a Cy Young Candidate

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks

Cubs ML (-142)

It's Justin Steele's world, we're just living in it.

With the second-shortest odds to win the NL Cy Young, Steele has undoubtedly been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season.

For the year, Steele owns a shining 2.49 ERA and has allowed just a 5.3% barrel rate and 36.4% hard-hit rate. Steele isn't afraid to punch opposing hitters out (24.5% K rate) but thrives on forcing ground balls, which he does at an 81st-percentile, 49.4% clip. The southpaw is in the midst of an incredible string of outings, having registered a quality start in 9 of his 11 starts since the All-Star break. The most recent of which -- a 7.0-inning, 1-run loss -- came against his opponent tonight, the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Steele was lights out against Arizona last week, limiting them to just six base runners while striking out six. He needed just 95 pitches to get through 7.0 innings, during which he induced 10 ground balls. He's in line to find similar success tonight considering the Diamondbacks' struggles against southpaws. Since the All-Star break, Arizona ranks 25th in wOBA (.293), 28th in ISO (.129), and 26th in wRC+ (81) against left-handed pitchers.

On the opposite side, the Chicago Cubs will face off with righty Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt had strung together some solid outings upon his initial return to the majors, but he's struggled mightily of late. In his last three starts, Pfaadt allowed 12 runs, 21 hits, and 5 home runs in just 13.2 innings of work. A bulk of that damage came in a start facing these very Cubs last week. In the loss, Chicago pegged Pfaadt for 4 runs off 7 hits and 3 home runs in 6.0 innings.

They have a good chance to get after Pfaadt again tonight. The Cubs have shredded righties over the second half of the season, ranking 5th in wOBA (.348) and sixth in ISO (.193) since the All-Star break.

With a clear advantage on the bump, the Cubs' moneyline is one of the safest plays on the board tonight.

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins

Braves -1.5 (-110)

If the Atlanta Braves have even odds to cover their runline, they're worth a look.

If the Braves have even odds to cover their runline against the Miami Marlins, they're worth a play.

In 10 matchups between the NL East foes this season, Atlanta has won 9. They've outscored Miami 79-24 in those 9 wins and have covered 1.5 runs every time. So, with Johnny Cueto toeing the rubber for Miami, Atlanta is a serious value.

The 38-year-old Cueto is well past his prime. He's been limited to just 41 innings this season but hasn't looked great even when available. He's allowed 23 runs across his last 6 starts and has only twice given up less than 3. For the year, Cueto owns a horrific 6.15 ERA, only slightly worse than his poor 4.81 expected ERA (xERA). He's generating whiffs at a minuscule 19.9% clip while simultaneously giving up a ton of barrels (9.2%) and flyballs (47.5%).

That is not the recipe for success against the best offense in baseball.

Atlanta not only leads the league in both barrel (11.9%) and hard-hit (45.9%) rates, but they've turned a league-high 19.5% of flyballs into home runs. They've had no issues against right-handed pitchers, either, as the Braves lead the league in wOBA (.355) and ISO (.222) in that split.

It's safe to say Atlanta is not going to struggle to give up runs.

That puts the pressure on their pitching staff to hold Miami in check -- something Bryce Elder is well-equipped to do.

Edler has faced Miami twice this season -- though both were in the first two months of the season. Still, he held them to just 4 runs in 12 innings of work and induced 24 ground balls in the process.

That's been Elder's bread-and-butter this season. His stellar 3.38 ERA can largely be attributed to an 84th percentile, 51% ground ball rate. Elder does an exceptional job limiting barrels (6.0%) and will benefit from a Marlins lineup that has struggled against righties over the second half.

Since the All-Star break, Miami ranks 27th in wOBA (.296) and 23rd in ISO (.155) while hitting ground balls at the second-highest rate (45.5%) against right-handed pitchers.

That lines right up with Elder's strengths and makes the Braves -1.5 at even odds hard to pass up.

Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals

Over 10.5 (-110)

For our final Friday bet, we're headed to the heart of America where I like the Houston Astros and Kansas City Royals to go over 10.5 runs.

The logic behind this is twofold.

One, both offenses have been rolling of late.

The Astros have, predictably, picked things up over the second half of the season. Since the All-Star break, Houston ranks 2nd in wOBA (.358), 4th in ISO (.200), and 2nd in runs per game (6.09).

Less predictably, the Royals have quietly heated up at the plate over the last month. Since August 1st, Kansas City has averaged the 13th-most runs per game (4.95) on the back of the 15th-highest wOBA (.320) and seventh-highest hard-hit rate (41.3%).

Both offenses haven't struggled to score in recent weeks, and they shouldn't have any problems keeping that up tonight considering the pitching matchup.

That's what really entices me about this play. Cristian Javier toes the rubber for Houston, while Zack Greinke takes the mound for KC.

Neither pitcher has been especially frightening for opposing hitters. Javier is running a 4.92 SIERA on the season and has given up a downright staggering 55.5% flyball rate. Coupled with a high barrel rate (10.0%), it's easy to see how he's given up a career-worst .325 wOBA. He's given up three-plus runs in five consecutive starts despite pitching into the sixth inning just once over that span.

On the opposite side, Greinke has gotten absolutely carved up this season. He's running a 5.47 ERA paired with a 5.21 xERA. While he hardly ever issues walks (3.6%), that actually hurts his chances of generating outs. Simply put, Greinke doesn't have the stuff to consistently throw so many hittable pitches. He doesn't have a single pitch with a positive run value this season and is giving up a 4th-percentile .291 expected batting average. He hasn't made it through the fifth inning in five consecutive starts and likely won't tonight given the opposition.

With two pitchers prone to blow-ups and two offenses running hot, expect a lot of offense in Kansas City.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.