MLB Betting Guide for Friday 10/20/23: Runs for the Rangers

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From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers

Rangers Over 4.5 Runs (-104)

The Houston Astros have been playing well enough on offense that I wouldn't dare bet against them straight up. However, with Jordan Montgomery on the bump for the Texas Rangers, I'm not especially interested in taking them to win outright, either. With the series tied 2-2, I'm not eager to back either side here.

I am eager to count on runs from Texas. Lots of them.

The Rangers square off with future Hall-of-Famer, Justin Verlander. The righty still looked sharp upon being traded back to Houston, posting a 3.31 ERA across 11 starts.

However, his underlying numbers suggest the 40-year-old isn't quite the ace he used to be. Between both stints in New York and Houston, Verlander posted his highest skill-interactive ERA (4.43) since 2008. He saw his strikeout rate (21.5%) dip to its lowest level since 2015, while his swinging-strike rate (9.9%) was below 10% for the first time since 2014.

Those numbers coincide with a drop in average fastball velocity -- down to 94.3 mph, his lowest average velo since 2016.

On top of that, Verlander gave up his highest rate of hard hits (40.8%) and barrels (8.2%) of the Statcast era.

Even before his decline this season, Verlander hadn't exactly lit things up in the postseason over the last few years. He's turned in a pair of quality starts this postseason but posted a 4.71 ERA across 72.2 playoff innings from 2018-2022.

There's also something to be said about the Rangers seeing him for the second time in the series. Verlander has pitched to a team twice in the same playoff series 11 times during his career. In the second of those starts, he's gone just 5-6 with a 3.96 ERA.

So, while Verlander has held the Rangers to just seven runs across five starts (32.2 innings) the last two seasons, I'm optimistic they're able to get to him tonight. Texas finished the regular season with the third-highest wOBA (.339), the second-highest ISO (.195), and the fourth-highest wRC+ (114) against right-handed pitchers. Their 39.9% flyball and 14.6% HR/FB rates ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, in that split -- marks that match up with Verlander's 44.8% flyball rate.

Texas has scored at least five runs in five of their nine playoff games thus far, including two of four this series. With any luck, they'll do so for the third time tonight and cash a team total juiced toward the over.

Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks

Under 9.5 Runs (-110)

The Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks combined for just three runs in last night's Game 3.

Given the pitching matchup for Game 4, I'm expecting another low-scoring affair and seeing value in the under.

Cristopher Sanchez makes the first postseason start of his career tonight, but his regular season numbers give me confidence he'll thrive. Consistency was the name of Sanchez's game, as he allowed more than three runs just three times in 18 starts. Overall, Sanchez pitched to a 3.33 SIERA and recorded a stellar 24.2% strikeout rate -- 20.2 percentage points higher than his walk rate.

While he hasn't pitched since September 30th, I don't expect much resistance against a Diamondbacks lineup that's scored just five runs the entire series.

Things get a bit trickier for the D-backs. Arizona is using Joe Mantiply as an opener to kick things off. Mantiply posted a 4.06 SIERA but forced a 53.8% ground ball rate during the regular season. He also had a significantly better expected ERA (3.82) and FIP (3.84) compared to his actual ERA (4.62).

This will likely be a heavy bullpen game for both teams, which also leads me to the under. The Phillies bullpen had the fifth-lowest FIP (3.88) and the third-highest WAR (6.8) during the regular season. As for the Diamondbacks, their relievers ranked just 21st in FIP (4.34) overall, but they're likely to deploy one (if not both) ofRyne Nelson and Slade Cecconi in long relief.

Neither Nelson (5.24 SIERA) nor Cecconi (4.35) were especially impressive during the regular season, but they're capable inning-eaters.

From there, they'll be able to turn to Andrew Saalfrank (3.64 SIERA), Ryan Thompson (3.99), Kevin Ginkel (3.46), and Paul Sewald (3.23). Those four combined to allow just a single run and hit in their Game 3 win.

With such a wide array of arms slated for use tonight, I'm not expecting either offense to get into much of a rhythm. We could see a bad inning here or there, but with a 9.5-run total, that leaves a sizable margin for the under to still hit.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.