MLB

MLB Betting: 3 Best Player Prop Bets for Wednesday 7/10/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
MLB Betting: 3 Best Player Prop Bets for Wednesday 7/10/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Player Props

Tyler O'Neill To Hit A Home Run (+285)

The Boston Red Sox scored a walloping 11 runs in the first two innings of last night's game and could find similar success at the plate against the Oakland Athletics tonight.

The A's will send out JP Sears, who comes in with a 4.74 ERA, 4.63 xERA, and 5.15 xFIP. Sears is off the heels of a scoreless outing versus the Los Angeles Angels but gave up a disconcerting 20 ER and 5 HR in just 22 2/3 frames in June.

The left-hander surrenders a .471 SLG, 46.8% fly-ball rate, and 1.50 home runs per nine innings to right-handed hitters. He also owns a 5.48 xFIP and a lowly 15.1% K% in this split.

A struggling lefty is on the bump? That's Tyler O'Neill's cue.

O'Neill has been slamming lefties with a .333 BA and .348 ISO (second-best in MLB), good for a .681 SLG (second). The only player to own a higher ISO or SLG against lefties is Aaron Judge, who has had a historic first half of the season.

Boston's slugger also sports a 204 wRC+ and a 50.0% fly-ball rate in this split. Since O'Neill is followed by Rafael Devers in the lineup, Sears might have to throw some good stuff to the former. Devers touts a league-leading 1.418 OPS across the last two weeks of play.

These odds may seem awfully low, but Sears poses as a perfect matchup for O'Neill to hit a long ball. Plus, numberFire's projections give him a 0.3 home run shake for tonight, which makes these +285 odds (25.9% implied probability) friendly enough.

Adley Rutschman To Hit A Home Run (+600)

For some reason, the market is deeming Adley Rutschman as a long shot to hit a home run tonight. I think he has a much better case than these +600 odds would suggest.

Shota Imanaga will be on the mound for the opposing Chicago Cubs. At the start of the season, Imanaga made a bold NL Rookie of the Year case, touting -110 odds. His odds have since plummeted to +2000.

This drop was, in part, due to the fact that Paul Skenes exists. But it hasn't helped that Imanaga has surrendered 9 home runs across his last 47 1/3 IP.

On the season, the left-handed Imanaga relents a 46.4% fly-ball rate and 1.24 home runs per 9 innings to righties, all while walking them at a mere 4.3% rate.

Rutschman, a switch-hitter, has been astonishing at the plate when facing a lefty. He comes into the night with a .400 BA (second-best in MLB) and .245 ISO, making up a .645 SLG versus southpaws. Rutschman also sports a 207 wRC+ (second) in this split and has been rocking a 54.5% fly-ball rate across the last two weeks of play.

He's hit at least one home run in 18.8% of games this season, but these +600 odds imply just a 14.3% probability. Add in the awesome platoon advantage, and I'm happy to bite on these odds. Given the all-around awesome matchup, I'd consider backing Rutschman To Record An RBI (+165), too.

Pablo Lopez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-106)

Let's check out the second leg of a doubleheader between the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox.

This game has a 5:10 p.m. ET start time and Pablo Lopez will take the mound for Minnesota. He should have a pretty easy time flying through the batters in this one.

Chicago's lineup is producing a .220 BA (tied for worst), .349 SLG (worst), .278 wOBA (worst), .129 ISO (worst), and 77 wRC+ (worst) versus right-handed pitchers. Simply put, they are terrible.

The Sox are also striking out an appealing 23.6% K% (10th-highest) in this split, while Lopez comes in rocking a 28.1% K% (tied for 10th-best in MLB) and strikes out 10.55 batters per nine innings.

Lopez has exceeded 6.5 strikeouts in 8 of his 18 starts, missing by the hook on four occasions. However, when Lopez has met up with a team that ranks in the top 15 of K% versus righties, he averaged 7.8 Ks and exceeded 6.5 Ks in six out of nine games.

Lopez will be fresh for this start while Chicago's batters could be twiddling their thumbs following the first leg of today's doubleheader. I'll side with the over and even consider Lopez 8+ Strikeouts (+180) given his high ceiling in this arena.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.