MLB Betting: 3 Best Player Prop Bets for Thursday 7/11/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Player Props

Justin Steele Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-106)

Initially, the Baltimore Orioles' strikeout rate (K%) of 21.1% (13th-lowest) doesn't draw much attention, but they will face a left-handed pitcher tonight in Justin Steele. With a southpaw split in mind, the O's K% jumps to 23.3% (eighth-highest), per FanGraphs.

The perfect storm seems to be brewing in Baltimore as Steele has also enjoyed increased K production of late. Steele is averaging 5.9 strikeouts per start, which has moved to 6.6 over his previous seven outings. It gets even better during his last four showings, totaling 7.3 Ks per start.

Steele's best punchout pitch is his slider -- which touts a 32.7% strikeout rate. Baltimore is outside the top 10 in runs above average against the pitch. This is noteworthy for a batting order that ranks second in the majors for runs scored.

For example, the Orioles are within the top 10 of runs above average against fastballs, splitters, curveballs, and changeups. There aren't many pitches that can slow Baltimore.

Considering Steele's recent K numbers, over 5.5 strikeouts is the side I want to be on -- especially with the -106 odds.

Isaac Paredes to Record an RBI (+140)

The New York Yankees' Nestor Cortes is enjoying a solid season with a 3.41 ERA and 3.77 SIERA. However, he could in trouble against the Tampa Bay Rays.

In his last start against the Rays, Tampa would reach four runs within the first three innings, fueling a 7-2 victory. The Rays are also carrying the 10th-highest weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) when facing lefties.

The top of the batting order flourishes when facing Cortes. Yandy Diaz boasts a .419 OBP over 30 career at-bats against Cortes. It's more of the same for Amed Rosario (.500) and Isaac Paredes (.333), both of whom have eye-catching OBPs against the Yanks' one-time All-Star.

All three batters are right in the heart of the order: Diaz hits first, Rosario is third, and Paredes is tasked with clean up. Paredes leads the team with 50 RBIs and just totaled 3 ribbies in Game 1 of this series. That makes seven RBIs over eight games in July for the All-Star infielder.

Paredes to record an RBI is also holding juicy odds at +140. Recent production is there for Paredes, and we can pair that with his success against Cortes. Give me the newly-announced All-Star to drive in a run.

Jose Altuve to Hit a Home Run (+440)

The Miami Marlins are handing the ball to Roddery Munoz on Thursday, giving the Houston Astros a prime opportunity to go yard. According to Savant, Munoz has a 43.8% hard-hit percentage (bottom 15%) and a 13.1% barrel rate (bottom 1%). This is reflected in his game logs, with Munoz surrendering 15 homers over nine starts.

While Yordan Alvarez is consistently the favorite to launch a homer for Houston, his HR odds are pretty short at +235. Jose Altuve has much higher odds at +440, and the favorable matchup against Munoz is still present.

We haven't seen Altuve send a big fly to the stands since June 28th. Frankly, he is due; you can't ask for a much better matchup, either.

The nine-time All-Star is hitting above .300 against four-seam fastballs, sliders, and sinkers. Munoz's most-used pitches are a four seamer (26.1%), cutter (24.6%), sinker (22.8%), and slider (16.6%).

All 13 of Altuve's dingers have come against four seamers (8), sliders (3), and sinkers (2). With all three pitches a part of Munoz's toolbox, Houston's star infielder may be gearing up to go yard.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.