MLB Betting: 3 Best Player Prop Bets for Friday 7/12/24
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
MLB Player Props
Tarik Skubal Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120)
The Detroit Tigers' Tarik Skubal is making his best case to run away with the American League Cy Young award thanks to recent electric outings. According to FanDuel's MLB award odds, Skubal has moved down to +110 while Corbin Burnes has the next-shortest line (+230).
Following Skubal's shortest start of the season with only four innings pitched on June 19th, he's bounced back in a big way, touting a 1.80 ERA while averaging 9.0 Ks per game over his previous three starts. He was blazing hot in his most recent appearance, finishing with a career-high 13 strikeouts.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are far from a strikeout-happy team -- especially with the fourth-lowest strikeout percentage (K%) against left-handed hurlers. However, their strikeouts are up to the tune of 10.0 per game over the last four -- far above their season average of 8.2.
Skubal feels like an exception to Los Angeles' low strikeout numbers; he's among the top 8% in whiff rate and K%, per Baseball Savant.
With the third-most runs scored in baseball, the Dodgers excel against pretty much every pitch in the book. Fortunately, Skubal is not a one-trick pony with all four of his pitches carrying strikeout rates over 26.0%.
His four-seam fastball could be the key to unlocking success, for L.A. has the 10th-most runs above average against this pitch compared to being among the top three against Skubal's other tools -- the sinker, slider, and changeup.
Ultimately, I can't overlook Skubal's recent numbers, and with the Dodgers recently striking out more than usual, this spells over 6.5 Ks.
Jazz Chisholm to Hit a Home Run (+285)
Another Cincinnati Reds starter -- Graham Ashcraft -- is on the injured list, giving Carson Spiers a chance to start in the majors. His last appearance on July 5th went far from well as he allowed eight hits, four runs, and three home runs in less than five innings pitched.
Let's take a moment to highlight the three dingers. This wasn't against a good slugging team, either, for the Tigers have the 11th-lowest slugging percentage (SLG) and home run rate. Even with the Miami Marlins carrying some of the worst power hitting in baseball, the opportunity to go over the fence is still there against Spiers.
Jazz Chisholm could be the answer to going yard with two big flies over his last three games. His SLG is also up against right-handed pitchers at .440 compared to .379 versus lefties.
Spiers' sinker has been a major issue, carrying a 48.4% hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, Jazz hits .339 when facing sinkers while logging four homers -- his most among all pitches. Spiers also features a cutter and changeup; Chisholm hits at least .250 while recording multiple dingers against each pitch.
Keep in mind that Great American Ball Park remains one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums, especially when it comes to going yard.
Julio Rodriguez to Record 2+ Hits (+210)
The Los Angeles Angels come off an embarrassing 11-0 defeat against the Seattle Mariners, but they should have better luck of limiting the Mariners' runs in Game 2 of the four-game series. Tyler Anderson, who has a 2.81 ERA, will be on the rubber after giving up no runs in eight innings in his most recent outing.
Still, don't be afraid to target batters in Seattle's lineup. While Anderson's ERA turns heads, his 5.14 SIERA is a snap back to reality. Julio Rodriguez could expose the veteran southpaw, for he hits .290 against lefties versus .248 when facing righties.
Adding fuel to the fire, Rodriguez is batting a blistering .407 this month. Multi-hit games have been Julio's middle name, totaling at least three hits in two of his last three.
Rodriguez is hitting over .300 against two of Anderson's three most-used pitches (four-seam fastball and cutter). In a small sample size of two career at-bats, the two-time All-Star is batting .500 against Anderson.
Considering Julio's success against lefties and his ongoing hot streak, the +210 odds for two hits are sticking out like a sore thumb.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.