MLB Best Bets and Player Props for Sunday 7/14/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Best Bets

Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds

Reds -1.5 (+115)

The Cincinnati Reds shape up well in today's matchup with the Miami Marlins, specifically with the pitching matchup.

Nick Lodolo (8-3, 3.30 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) has a big advantage on Miami. The Marlins' wRC+ against southpaws is 66 the last 30 days and 68 for the season to position them as a bottom-tier offense against LHP. Better yet, they're striking out at a 28.5% clip in this split over the last 30 days.

The Marlins are sending out a lefty of their own: Trevor Rogers (1-9, 4.82 ERA, 1.59 WHIP). Rogers' SIERA is 4.67, and his xERA is 4.97. He's also given a free pass to 10.0% of opposing hitters while striking out just 18.3% of batters.

The Reds' wRC+ is a viable 97 against lefties this season and is 102 over the last 30 days.

Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays

Over 7.5 (-114)

Two righties take the mound in this tilt between the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians.

For the home side, it's Ryan Pepiot (5-5, 4.20 ERA, 1.13 WHIP).

For the visiting Guardians, it's Ben Lively (8-4, 3.59 ERA, 1.19 WHIP).

By xFIP, Pepiot sits at a 3.94, and Lively's mark is a 4.17.

While Pepiot has an elevated K% (27.2%), the Guardians are striking out just 19.5% of the time against RHP the last 30 days. That's a bottom-six rate in the bigs.

Both sides here have top-13 wRC+ marks against RHP the last 30 days (105 for Cleveland and 107 for Tampa Bay), so they should be able to get the bat on the ball and make things happen.

numberFire's model is projecting 8.38 runs scored in this matchup.

Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants

Over 7.5 (-112)

Another over here looks interesting between the Minnesota Twins and San Francisco Giants.

Minnesota is sending out righty Chris Paddack (5-3, 5.18 ERA, 1.40 WHIP across 83.1 innings). For the Giants, it's lefty Blake Snell (0-3, 7.85 ERA, 1.74 WHIP across 28.2 innings).

Notably, here, each pitcher's ERA is too high when compared to their expected ERAs (4.38 for Snell and 4.75 for Paddack). With that said, those are still elevated rates when compared to a 7.5-run total.

Further, the Twins are getting a lefty, and over the last 30 days, they have a league-leading 172 wRC+ against southpaws. They also lead on the year at a 127 wRC+ in the split.

The Giants are solid against righties: 109 wRC+ the last 30 days and 98 on the season.

numberFire's model likes this game to score 8.76 runs on average.

MLB Player Prop Best Bets

Logan Gilbert Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-111)

Logan Gilbert squares up with an Los Angeles Angels team that has a 22.0% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching the last 30 days, which is around the MLB average. On the season, it's up at 23.0%. With Gilbert, he is punching out batters at a 24.1% clip, in spite of a spicy 29.2% CSW%. That CSW% suggests a strikeout rate closer to 25.5%, so regression could hit, and in this matchup, it makes sense. numberFire projects him for 6.0 strikeouts.

Blake Snell Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+108)

Along the lines of liking the over in this Twins/Giants tilt, an under for one of the pitcher's K props stands to reason. For Snell, the sample is still growing, and he does have a nice 24.8% strikeout rate. However, it's on the back of a 25.7% CSW%, which is traditionally tied to a K% closer to 19.4%, a heavy 5.4-point difference. numberFire's model is projecting Snell for just 5.1 K's.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.