How Has the Patriots vs. Bears Line Moved Ahead of Thursday Night Football?

Chicago has been the favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook since the first price posted on Oct. 13. The spread opened at Bears -2.5, dipped to -1.5 on Oct. 17 and moved to -3 by the evening of Oct. 18, where it's held since. The total moved once, from 49.5 to 50.5 on Oct. 19, and as of Oct. 21 at 3:25 p.m. ET, it's Bears -3 (-105) / Patriots +3 (-115), Bears -156 / Patriots +132 on the moneyline and 50.5 (Over -110 / Under -110) on the total.

Patriots (4-2) at Bears (4-2), Week 7 Thursday Night Football: Thursday, Oct. 22, 2026, 8:15 p.m. ET, Soldier Field, Amazon Prime Video.

Where the Patriots vs. Bears line stands now

As of Oct. 21 at 3:25 p.m. ET, our prices for Thursday's game are:

• Spread: Bears -3 (-105), Patriots +3 (-115)
• Moneyline: Bears -156, Patriots +132
• Total: 50.5 (Over -110, Under -110)

Convert the moneyline to implied win probability and Bears -156 works out to 60.9%, while Patriots +132 works out to 43.1%. In plain terms, the price treats Chicago as roughly a 3-in-5 favorite.

numberFire's projection gives the Bears a 58.5% win probability for Thursday. You can follow live prices and the line-movement chart on our Patriots vs. Bears matchup page.

How the teams compare so far

• Bears: 11th in offense and 13th in defense by numberFire's rankings, with about 161 rushing yards and 228 passing yards per game
• Patriots: 13th in offense and 9th in defense, with 131 rushing yards and 244 passing yards per game

Chicago has more rushing yards per game, while New England has more passing yards per game and ranks four spots higher on defense.

How the spread moved this week

The spread has moved twice, and Chicago has stayed the favorite through both moves. Times below are ET.

Each row is a price snapshot, so each move happened somewhere between two of them:

• -2.5 to -1.5: between Oct. 17, 9:50 a.m. and 7:20 p.m. ET
• -1.5 to -3: between Oct. 18, 4:50 a.m. and 7:20 p.m. ET

Why the move to 3 matters

Three is the most common final margin in the NFL. Since 1989, 15.39% of NFL games were decided by exactly three points, nearly twice the share for 7, the next most common margin, at 8.74%.

Because -3 is a whole number, a 3-point Bears win lands right on the spread. That's a push, and a push refunds your stake; our guide covers how a push works on the spread.

What it means if you bet earlier

• Bears -2.5: a 3-point Chicago win cashes your ticket. At -3, the same result is a push.
• Patriots +2.5 or +1.5: you're holding a worse number than the +3 on the board now.

The price gap at -3

The two sides of -3 carry different prices. A $100 bet on Bears -3 at -105 profits $95.24, while $100 on Patriots +3 at -115 profits $86.96. That's $8.28 less on the Patriots side. On a $10 bet, it's $9.52 versus $8.70.

How the total and moneyline moved

The total

The total sat at 49.5 (-110/-110) from Oct. 13. In the Oct. 18, 7:20 p.m. and Oct. 19, 4:50 a.m. snapshots, the Over shaded to -115 with the Under at -105, so Over bettors paid a slightly higher price than Under bettors. Between Oct. 19, 4:50 a.m. and 2:20 p.m. ET, the number went to 50.5 with both sides back at -110.

The moneyline

• Bears: -130 (56.5% implied) at the open to -156 (60.9%) now
• Patriots: +110 (47.6% implied) at the open to +132 (43.1%) now

In dollar terms, $100 on the Patriots now returns $132 profit, up from $110 at the open. Backing Chicago costs you more than it did on Oct. 13.

What's on the injury report

The official Week 7 injury report, as it stood Oct. 21, lists practice participation for both teams. These are practice levels, not game designations, and game statuses can still post before kickoff.

Bears

• Did not participate: LB T.J. Edwards, RB Kyle Monangai, LB Jack Sanborn
• Limited: G Jonah Jackson
• Full: CB Tyrique Stevenson, LB Keyshaun Elliott

Patriots

• Did not participate: C Ben Brown, DT Joshua Farmer, G Alijah Vera-Tucker
• Limited: WR A.J. Brown, CB Channing Canada, CB Carlton Davis III, T Morgan Moses, CB Karon Prunty
• Full: QB Drake Maye, S Kevin Byard and others

You can follow the latest NFL injury news on FanDuel Research through Thursday.

The current prices in this post are FanDuel Sportsbook odds as of Oct. 21 at 3:25 p.m. ET, and lines can move before Thursday's 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff. Check the Patriots vs. Bears event page for the current numbers before you bet.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.