Michigan State vs North Dakota State College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for NCAA Tournament First Round

An opening-round NCAA Tournament matchup will see the 14th-seeded North Dakota State Bison (27-7) play against the No. 3 seed Michigan State Spartans (25-7) on Thursday at KeyBank Center. The contest begins at 4:05 p.m. ET, on TNT.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Michigan State vs. North Dakota State Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Thursday, March 19, 2026
• Game time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV channel: TNT
• Location: Buffalo, New York
• Arena: KeyBank Center

Michigan State vs. North Dakota State Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Michigan State win (77.8%)

If you plan to place a wager on Michigan State-North Dakota State outing (in which Michigan State is a 16.5-point favorite and the total has been set at 143.5 points), below are some betting trends and insights for Thursday's game.

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Michigan State vs. North Dakota State: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Michigan State is 17-15-0 ATS this season.
• North Dakota State has covered 19 times in 31 matchups with a spread this year.
• The Spartans sport a worse record against the spread in home games (8-9-0) than they do on the road (6-4-0).
• Against the spread, the Bison have been better at home (7-4-0) than away (9-6-0).

Michigan State vs. North Dakota State: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Michigan State has been chosen as the moneyline favorite in 25 games this year and has walked away with the win 22 times (88%) in those games.
• The Spartans have not lost in eight games this year when favored by -2500 or better on the moneyline.
• North Dakota State has won 33.3% of the games this season it was the moneyline underdog (2-4).
• The Bison have yet to play a game with moneyline odds of +1100 or longer.
• Michigan State has an implied victory probability of 96.2% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Michigan State vs. North Dakota State Head-to-Head Comparison

• Michigan State is outscoring opponents by 10.5 points per game with a +337 scoring differential overall. It puts up 78.9 points per game (101st in college basketball) and allows 68.4 per outing (43rd in college basketball).
• Jeremy Fears Jr.'s team-leading 15.7 points per game ranks 246th in the country.
• North Dakota State puts up 80.7 points per game (70th in college basketball) while allowing 69.6 per contest (64th in college basketball). It has a +379 scoring differential and outscores opponents by 11.1 points per game.
• Damari Wheeler-Thomas' team-leading 14.4 points per game rank him 356th in college basketball.
• The Spartans come out on top in the rebound battle by an average of 11.4 boards. They are recording 36.9 rebounds per game (14th in college basketball) compared to their opponents' 25.5 per contest.
• Jaxon Kohler tops the Spartans with 9.1 rebounds per game (27th in college basketball play).
• The 33.1 rebounds per game the Bison accumulate rank 113th in the nation, 4.5 more than the 28.6 their opponents record.
• Trevian Carson's 6.4 rebounds per game lead the Bison and rank 230th in college basketball.
• Michigan State ranks 38th in college basketball with 104.6 points scored per 100 possessions, and 64th in college basketball defensively with 90.6 points conceded per 100 possessions.
• The Bison's 103.8 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 48th in college basketball, and the 89.5 points they concede per 100 possessions rank 47th in college basketball.

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