Michigan State vs North Dakota State College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for NCAA Tournament First Round

The No. 3 seed Michigan State Spartans (25-7) and the No. 14 seed North Dakota State Bison (27-7) will meet on Thursday at 4:05 p.m. ET in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The matchup airs on TNT.

Before you place your bet on this game at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Michigan State vs. North Dakota State Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Thursday, March 19, 2026
• Game time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV channel: TNT
• Location: Buffalo, New York
• Arena: KeyBank Center

Michigan State vs. North Dakota State Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Michigan State win (76.8%)

Michigan State is a 15.5-point favorite over North Dakota State on Thursday and the over/under is set at 143.5 points. Here are some betting trends and insights if you are planning on making a wager on the outing.

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Michigan State vs. North Dakota State: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Michigan State has covered 17 times in 32 games with a spread this season.
• North Dakota State has covered 19 times in 31 games with a spread this year.
• Against the spread, the Spartans have played worse at home, covering eight times in 17 home games, and six times in 10 road games.
• This year, the Bison are 7-4-0 at home against the spread (.636 winning percentage). Away, they are 9-6-0 ATS (.600).

Michigan State vs. North Dakota State: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Michigan State has been the moneyline favorite in 25 games this season and has come away with the win 22 times (88%) in those contests.
• The Spartans have been a -2083 moneyline favorite on eight occasions this season and won every game.
• North Dakota State has won two of the six games it was listed as the moneyline underdog this season (33.3%).
• The Bison have yet to play as a moneyline underdog of +1000 or longer.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Michigan State has a 95.4% chance of walking away with the win.

Michigan State vs. North Dakota State Head-to-Head Comparison

• At 77.7 points scored per game and 67.1 points conceded last season, Michigan State was 78th in college basketball on offense and 44th on defense.
• On the glass, Michigan State was 10th-best in the nation in rebounds (36.7 per game) last season. It was 28th in rebounds allowed (28.2 per game).
• Last season Michigan State was 24th-best in college basketball in assists with 16.5 per game.
• With 10.7 turnovers committed per game and 10.4 turnovers forced last year, Michigan State was 135th and 265th in the nation, respectively.
• North Dakota State put up 81.1 points per game (26th-ranked in college basketball) last year, while allowing 74.6 points per contest (255th-ranked).
• North Dakota State was 174th in the country with 32.1 rebounds per game. Meanwhile, it ranked 121st with 30.3 rebounds allowed per game.
• Last season North Dakota State ranked 77th in college basketball in assists, putting up 15 per game.
• North Dakota State ranked 50th in college basketball at 9.8 turnovers per contest, but it forced 7.6 turnovers per game, which ranked -2-worst in college basketball.

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