Miami Open Betting Guide: Friday 3/29/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
Miami Open Betting Guide: Friday 3/29/24

Following an exciting Indian Wells, we get another premier American tennis tournament with the Miami Open.

We're into the second week of the event, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Miami Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find betting value in Friday night's semifinal match?

Miami Open Best Bet

Grigor Dimitrov vs. Alexander Zverev

Over 2.5 Total Sets (+112)

Grigor Dimitrov produced an astonishing result on Thursday, not only beating Carlos Alcaraz but humbling him in straight sets 6-2, 6-4. Even Alcaraz had to acknowledge how well Dimitrov played, noting that "he made me feel like I'm 13 years old."

Dimitrov is probably on cloud nine entering this semifinal against Alexander Zverev. However, there's just one problem -- Zverev owns a 7-1 advantage in their head-to-head. All seven of those wins have come in a row, and they include four just last season, three of which came on hard courts.

We clearly need to view Zverev as the favorite, yet it's difficult to discount Dimitrov's form when he just dominated one of the best talents on Tour.

Both players have strong records in 2024, with Dimitrov now at 19-4 and Zverev at 18-5. Likewise, when we look at the last 52 weeks on hard courts, Dimitrov has the ATP Tour's seventh-best win percentage (71.0%) and Zverev has the fifth-best (71.8%).

Tennis Abstract's Elo Ratings also suggest that this is a tricky one to call. It's model projects just a 52.0% win probability for Zverev.

Putting it all together, this match feels like a three-setter in the making, regardless of who wins. Their recent encounters lend themselves to this outcome, too, as between their last two matches at the US Open and Chengdu, three of the last six sets have gone to a tiebreak.

Add in the plus odds we're getting here, and this feels like the best way to find value in tonight's semifinal.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.