MLB Predictions Today: MLB Best Bets and Picks for Monday, October 5

MLB Betting Picks in Summary

• Guardians -1.5 (+155)
• Yankees Moneyline (-124)

The MLB Divisional Round continues on Monday with a two-game American League slate, giving us a pair of intriguing spots in the betting market.

The Cleveland Guardians will try to even their series with the Chicago White Sox after dropping Game 1 while the New York Yankees are also looking to bounce back after falling behind the Tampa Bay Rays.

Using the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, let's break down two MLB best bets for Monday's action.

This article includes some of the top bets from our other MLB content. All MLB odds via FanDuel, and they may change after this article is published.

MLB Picks and Predictions for Today

Guardians -1.5 (+155)

White Sox at Guardians, 5 p.m. ET

The Cleveland Guardians are -152 on the moneyline, but I prefer taking a shot on Cleveland's -1.5 run line at +155.

Gavin Williams gives Cleveland a significant ceiling on the mound. The right-hander finished the regular season with a 3.76 ERA and 248 strikeouts, and he's in a matchup where his swing-and-miss stuff could play particularly well.

The current Chicago White Sox roster has produced only a .275 wOBA against him across 112 career plate appearances while striking out 29.5% of the time. The underlying Statcast numbers are even better for Williams, as that group owns just a .209 xBA and .279 xwOBA against him.

Kay had a respectable season, but there is a sizable difference in strikeout ability between these starters. Kay ended the regular season with an 18.2% K rate this year, compared to Williams' 33.2% clip.

After losing Game 1 at home, Cleveland badly needs a response. With Williams capable of controlling the game from the mound, I'll bypass the heavier moneyline price and back the Guardians to win by multiple runs.

Yankees Moneyline (-124)

Yankees at Rays, 8 p.m. ET

The New York Yankees will hand the ball to Cam Schlittler, who put together a phenomenal regular season. Schlittler enters Monday with a 14-6 record, 1.95 ERA, and 31.4% strikeout rate. The Tampa Bay Rays counter with Freddy Peralta, who finished 10-11 with a 4.42 ERA and 156 strikeouts.

Schlittler's matchup data against Tampa Bay looks excellent. Current Rays hitters have managed a .265 wOBA against him across 87 plate appearances, striking out at a 29.9% clip. Statcast gives that group an even lower .236 xwOBA and .273 xSLG in the matchup.

Peralta's history against the Yankees isn't nearly as clean. Current New York hitters have generated a .370 wOBA against him across 129 plate appearances. They've also produced a 91.4-MPH average exit velocity and .499 xSLG in those matchups.

The starting-pitching matchup tilts toward New York as Schlittler gives the Yankees a strong foundation as they try to even the series. I think the Yanks’ bats can do enough offensively to even the series.

MLB Betting Frequently Asked Questions

What are MLB player prop bets?

MLB player prop bets are wagers on specific statistical outcomes tied to individual players during a game — not on which team wins or loses. You might bet on how many strikeouts a starting pitcher records, whether a shortstop gets a hit, or how many total bases an outfielder accumulates.

Because they are isolated to a single player's performance, props let you apply focused knowledge about matchups, recent form, and ballpark conditions rather than predicting the full game result.

What types of MLB player props are available?

FanDuel offers a wide menu of MLB props. The most common categories include:

• Pitcher strikeouts
• Batter hits
• Home runs
• Total bases
• RBIs
• Stolen bases
• Pitcher outs recorded

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What does "total bases" mean as a prop bet?

The total bases prop counts the bases a batter earns from hits in a single game:

• Single = 1 base
• Double = 2 bases
• Triple = 3 bases
• Home run = 4 bases

Walks, hit-by-pitches, and stolen bases do not count. A typical total bases line is set at 1.5 or 2.5. Betting over 1.5 means you need at least a double, or two singles.

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Which MLB bets stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.