Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Monday, October 5

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Chase DeLauter (+810)
• Luis Garcia (+490)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Chase DeLauter (+810)

White Sox at Guardians, 5 p.m. ET

Admittedly, this isn’t a great slate for home runs. In Cleveland, it’s cold with the wind blowing in. In Tampa, we have two very good pitchers going. But I’m going to give you a dinger pick in each game, starting with Chase DeLauter of the Cleveland Guardians.

DeLauter is more of a really good all-around hitter than a true power bat. He posted a .359 wOBA with 16 homers and a 14.7% K rate in the regular season. He actually had a better wOBA against lefties (.368) than righties (.354), so the lefty-lefty matchup with Anthony Kay isn’t much of a worry.

Plus, with DeLauter hitting from the left side, the wind — which is coming in from left — may not be as big of a hindrance for him.

DeLauter ended the campaign on a high note, homering three times and posting a .377 expected wOBA over his final 60 plate appearances. He’s my favorite pick to go yard in today’s first game.

Home Run Prediction: Luis Garcia (+490)

Yankees at Rays, 8 p.m. ET

Freddy Peralta has been good for the Tampa Bay Rays, but he hasn’t been as good as his post-trade 3.25 ERA indicates. His xFIP with the Rays is 4.62, and his K rate in that time is just 19.7%. Overall this year, lefties have tagged him for a .330 wOBA and 1.42 jacks per nine.

That pushes me to Luis Garcia.

One of the New York Yankees‘ midseason trade acquisitions, Garcia hits from the left side and is very good against RHPs, generating a .367 wOBA and 40.7% hard-hit rate in the split.

In the Wild Card Round, Garcia hit one tank while racking up a 50.0% hard-hit rate. With the platoon advantage against Peralta, Garcia can put one in the seats once again.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.