Mexico City Grand Prix Win Simulations: Can Lando Norris Remain on the Podium?

With his second-place run at Circuit of the Americas, Lando Norris is on a string of four consecutive podiums heading down to Mexico City.

Given where McLaren was at the start of the year, that's an absurd accomplishment.

But we're greedy. So, it's time to ask: can Norris make it five in a row on Sunday?

It'll be a tough task. McLaren has no more upgrades planned this year, and Mexico City's thin air should favor Mercedes.

However, with McLaren consistently having such good race pace, my pre-practice model does view Norris as being in a good position for Sunday. Here's the full run of simulations, including win, podium, top-6, and top-10 odds.

If we were to take these sims as gospel, then Norris would be a value at FanDuel Sportsbook. Their Formula 1 betting odds have Norris at +2000 to win, which is just 4.3% implied. So, Norris grades out beautifully there.

However, we should -- as always -- proceed with caution here. I think the biggest flaw in the model is that it under-sells track-specific traits in large part because those things are hard to quantify. So it's pretty likely to be too low on Mercedes at a track that fits their current car well. This would, in turn, make the model too high on McLaren.

As a result, I'd rather get exposure to Norris via a market where he doesn't necessarily need to top Lewis Hamilton in order for the bet to cash. That brings us to the podium.

There, Norris is +115 to finish top three, translating to 46.5% implied odds. The model has him at 62.7%. Again, there could be some overselling with that, but Norris doesn't need to be perfect to hit this. He has podiumed in 6 of 10 races since his car received upgrades in Austria, and not all of those tracks were great track fits.

If you want to take the plunge on Norris to win at +2000, you can. It's a better price than what's being offered at other regulated books, so FanDuel's the spot to do it if you believe in Norris' ceiling. I would just keep in mind the flaws of the model when doing so.

The other driver the model likes more than the market is Lance Stroll.

Aston Martin brought upgrades to COTA, and it put them in a hole when they didn't nail the setup with just one practice session. But Stroll's race pace was good, and he used it to cross the finish line ninth despite starting the race on pit road.

This team is trying to re-catch McLaren for fourth in the constructor's championship, so they have big motivation to continue focusing on 2023 while others put an eye toward the future. As a result, I'm more willing to buy into Stroll's COTA race pace.

The model shows value in Stroll to finish top 10 (46.4% vs. 36.4% implied at +175) and top 6 (10.4% vs. 3.4% implied at +2800). He hasn't finished inside the top six since Barcelona in June, but I do think Stroll's worth a look now that Aston Martin can better tune-in the upgrades.

Have a driver you want to bet for the Mexico City Grand Prix? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest Formula 1 betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.